The Focus Group Podcast

The pundit class thought JD Vance performed better than Tim Walz in the vice presidential debate. Voters thought Vance was a good performer, but they couldn't quite shake their skepticism. Puck News's John Heilemann joins Sarah to review voters' reactions to the VP debate and the history of VP picks more broadly.

Some of today's first-time voters were 10 years old when Donald Trump launched his first presidential campaign, so he's all they've known in politics. That's certainly affected how they look at politics, across the political spectrum. Puck's Peter Hamby joins Sarah to discuss the youth vote in the home stretch of the 2024 election. show notes September 2024 Harvard Youth Poll By Peter: The Left’s...

Sarah recently sat down with Reid Hoffman and Aria Finger on their podcast Possible to talk about the future of politics, the origins of her focus group work, and how artificial intelligence might impact that work. https://possible.fm/podcast

We're taking a break from the presidential race this week. The battle for control of the Senate is running through red states, with former Trump voters. Some of them are more persuadable than others. Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report joins Sarah to discuss the Senate races in Ohio, Montana, and Texas, and the role of abortion politics in this year's Senate races.

 Kamala Harris crushed Donald Trump in this week's debate...and swing voters noticed. CNN's Dana Bash joins Sarah to discuss her new book, this week's debate, her experience as the co-moderator of the June 27 debate, and the role of moderator fact-checking in both debates. show notes By Dana Bash and David Fisher: America's Deadliest Election: The Cautionary Tale of the Most Violent Election in Am...

Kamala Harris's campaign has created a month of immaculate vibes, but plenty of voters are still skeptical. Semafor Washington bureau chief Benjy Sarlin joins Sarah to discuss the state of the race going into the second debate, and Harris's standing with skeptical former Biden voters. show notes Adam Carlson's Crosstab Aggregator Relevant past episodes: With black voters: March 2024, with Ashley A...

The Democratic National Convention was a respite from Democrats' summer of despair, and a lot of the good vibes filtered down to swing voters...but are good vibes enough? Democratic pollster John Anzalone joins Sarah to listen to how the new ticket looks to swing voters...and even some former Trump voters who are now Harris-curious. 

The Bulwark is ON LOCATION at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, and we've got quite a lot to talk about! National Political Reporter Joe Perticone joins Sarah to recap the sights and sounds from the convention. They also walk through swing voters' reactions to the Harris-Walz ticket, and how plugged in they were to convention coverage generally (not very much).

JD Vance's evolution on Trump over the years has left voters wondering what he really believes. But our guest this week can shed some light on that. POLITICO's Ian Ward joins Sarah to discuss his reporting on JD Vance and the "new right" more broadly. They also discuss Ian's reporting from inside Project 2025, and the role it may play in a future Trump administration...regardless of what Trump say...

Sarah is on vacation this week, but we didn't want to leave you without some focus group reactions to Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz joining the Democratic ticket. Listen to how swing voters from around the country AND Minnesota voters who know Walz best are thinking about him and the presidential race more broadly. We'll see you next week.

Kamala Harris is closing in on a vice presidential pick, and her shortlist looks...a LOT different than Joe Biden's shortlist did in 2020. New Bulwark managing editor Sam Stein joins Sarah to break down Harris's options and walk through his new reporting on scammy Democratic PACs. show notes By Sam Stein: Harris Camp Warns Supporters: Don’t Get Duped by ‘Scam PACs’ They Begged Dems for Money—Then...

At the 11th hour, Kamala Harris is now the presumptive Democratic nominee. Longtime listeners will know that swing voters have had a negative impression of her--but luckily, it's just an impression! David Axelrod, former senior advisor to President Obama, joins Sarah to walk through where Harris goes from here. show notes The Bulwark in Dallas on September 5 The Axe Files with David Axelrod Hacks...

The Republican National Convention took place with the backdrop of an assassination attempt, and Donald Trump added a MAGA true believer to his ticket, in J.D. Vance. The Bulwark 's Marc Caputo joins Sarah from Milwaukee to discuss the convention, the aftermath of the assassination attempt on Trump, and voters' reactions to the Trump-Vance ticket. This episode was recorded before Donald Trump's ac...

Democrats' spin holds that the calls for Joe Biden to drop out are driven by the media, while base Democratic voters beyond Washington are committed to seeing Biden as the nominee, and there will be a backlash if he isn't. In a series of focus groups with black Democratic voters this week, we found the truth to be more complicated. Audie Cornish, host of the CNN podcast The Assignment with Audie C...

Joe Biden's debate performance was a disaster...and voters noticed. Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller bring you the voters' reactions and a frank discussion about the risks and rewards of Biden stepping aside as the nominee...because something in this race has to change. show notes Puck News: Biden Plunges in Swing States in Leaked Post-Debate Poll

We taped this show before Joe Biden's disastrous first debate, but its thesis still holds true: he's losing this race. To better understand why, we fielded a group of Hispanic voters who voted for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, and are now leaning towards Trump. Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report joins Sarah to break down why these voters are giving Donald Trump a fresh look. From Amy Walter:...

Utah has been something of a bulwark (pun intended) against Trumpism, but even they haven't been immune to sliding into MAGA. And now, with Sen. Mitt Romney retiring, Republican voters are poised to pick a new U.S. senator there. The Atlantic 's McKay Coppins joins Sarah to break down how Utah Republicans are different, and where they might go from here. They also discuss voters' assessments of Ro...

One of the Republican Party's biggest long-term problems is that their base is demanding behavior that swing voters won't tolerate, and few things have brought out this gap better than Donald Trump's recent conviction. The Washington Post 's Isaac Arnsdorf joins Sarah to discuss what the MAGA base expects out of politicians these days, and how swing voters are reacting. show notes: Isaac Arnsdorf'...

When Donald Trump's 34 felony convictions were handed down, we had focus groups ready to talk about them. PBS Newshour 's Laura Barrón-López joins Sarah to listen to swing voters' reactions to Trump's conviction, and to the start of Hunter Biden's federal trial. show notes PBS Newshour: How Republican voters feel about Trump and the election after his conviction

We have five months to go until Election Day, and nobody's happy. So we're bringing you some catharsis. Jonathan V. Last joins Sarah to let out a primal scream and preview the home stretch of this presidential campaign through the lens of Trump '16/Biden '20 voters. This show is sponsored by BetterHelp. Focus Group Podcast listeners can get 10% off their first month at BetterHelp.com/thefocusgroup

North Carolina Republicans have nominated a candidate for governor who might be crazier than all of the Republicans who ran in 2022. And that's saying something. POLITICO's Zach Montellaro joins Sarah to walk through Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's political rise, and how his supporters and GOP detractors feel about him. show notes: Zach Montellaro in POLITICO: The most important governor’s race of 2024...

2024's college graduates started their college careers with COVID, and ended them with encampments on most of their campuses. Tim Miller joins Sarah to discuss how America's youth have dealt with a turbulent few years, how they view the recent protests on their campuses, and their thoughts on November's election.

One of Sarah's favorite Republicans, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, is running for the U.S. Senate. So how are Sarah, and her fellow Maryland voters thinking about this race? Former Maryland Lt. Governor (and RNC chairman) Michael Steele joins Sarah to discuss how left-leaning Marylanders who've voted for Hogan before are thinking about his Senate bid, and his Democratic challengers.

Donald Trump said that Nikki Haley's supporters would be "permanently barred" from the MAGA camp...and he's keeping that promise in the general election. Bulwark MAGA-world correspondent Marc Caputo joins Sarah to listen to Nikki Haley's base...those that are abandoning Trump in the general election, and those that are sticking with him.

Abortion has become a defining feature of the 2024 election in Arizona, and Arizona women know it. Yvonne Wingett Sanchez, Arizona-based democracy reporter for the Washington Post, joins Sarah to walk through the implications of the Arizona Supreme Court re-instituting an 1864 ban on abortion in the state. Editor's note: This show was taped before the Arizona House voted to repeal the ban on April...