The Bayesian Conspiracy

The Bayesian Conspiracy

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The Bayesian Conspiracy

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Society

Último episodio

11 de oct. de 2026

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Episodios

A Harried Meeting (audio) 31.12.2025

A short story by Ben Pace. Original can be found here. Donate to the fundraiser here! Harry sings karaoke here. Happy New Year. 🙂

House elves are crystalized cosmic power 25.12.2025

A short story by Prerat. Original can be found here. Merry Xmas!

Christmas 2025: Couple of Quick Shoutouts 24.12.2025

Hello and happy holiday season to you all! Eneasz is back and we’re here to say hi and give a shoutout to Skyler’s awesome annual LessWrong survey and Lighthaven’s fundraising event. See the links below for more details. LINKS The LessWrong survey will remain open from now until at least January 7th, 2026. Lighthaven is […]

252 – The 12 Virtues of Rationality, with Alex and David 10.12.2025

Join me as I sit down with Alex and David, both previous guests on the show and both cofounders of the Guild of the Rose. Together, we go over the core – the heart – of what we consider to be the Rationalist tradition. The 12 Virtues are an awesome distillation of what the rest […]

251 – Matt Freeman on What Makes a Good Story 26.11.2025

Matt Freeman has been cohosting several media analysis podcasts for over a decade. He and his cohost Scott have been doing weekly episodes of the Doofcast every Friday and they cover movies, books, and TV shows. Matt and Scott’s analysis podcasts have made me love stories even more and have equipped me with tools to […]

Bayes Blast 46 – Get Involved in Local Politics with Booker Lightman 22.11.2025

Booker is a long-time attendee and one of the coordinators of the Denver area Less Wrong community. Community engagement isn’t just a background task for him – he’s taken real steps to get involved with and improve his community and you can too! He’s here to tell us about the things he’s done and give […]

250 – Making the Good Life with Matt Freeman 12.11.2025

While Eneasz is busy at InkHaven, Steven sits down with Matt Freeman to talk about not-AI stuff! We had (in my opinion) a great conversation about stoic philosophy, the traps of getting too entrenched in any philosophical framework, and some of the ingredients of a happy life. LINKS It’s Okay to Feel Bad for a […]

249 – Red Heart and IABIED with Max Harms 29.10.2025

We talk with Max Harms on the air for the first time since 2017! He’s got a new book coming out (pre-order your copy here or at Amazon) and we spend about the first half talking about If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. LINKS Max’s first book, Crystal Society Eneasz’s audiobook of about the first […]

248 – Seeking Alpha, with Jay 15.10.2025

Jay talks with us about finding Alpha – returns above the base rate – in every day life (and what this means). LINKS Optimize Everything, Jay’s substack Jay on Twitter Arbor Trading Bootcamp Kelsey’s argument that We Need To Be Able To Sue AI Companies 00:00:05 – Alpha with Jay 01:28:53 – Guild of the […]

247 – The Void, with Matt Freeman, part 2 01.10.2025

We continue discussing Nostalgebraist’s “The Void” in the context of how to relate to LLMs. If God imagines Claude hard enough, does Claude become real? LINKS The Void Audio reading of The Void, from AskWho The referenced episode where the three of us spoke of Janus’s post “Simulators” Claude-Clark post – Simulacra Welfare: Meet Clark, by […]

246 – The Void, with Matt Freeman, part 1 17.09.2025

We discuss Nostalgebraist’s “The Void” in the context of how to relate to LLMs. “When you talk to ChatGPT, who or what are you talking to?” LINKS The Void Audio reading of The Void, from AskWho The referenced episode where the three of us spoke of Janus’s post “Simulators” The Measure of a Man episode […]

pre246 note 17.09.2025

Audio reading of The Void, from AskWho

245 – AI Welfare, with Rob Long and Rosie Campbell of Eleos 03.09.2025

Do we need to be concerned for the welfare of AIs today? What about the near future? Eleos AI Research is asking exactly that. LINKS Eleos AI Research People for the Ethical Treatment of Reinforcement Learners Bees Can’t Suffer? Lena, by qntm When AI Seems Conscious Experience Machines, Rob’s substack The War on General Computation […]

244 – How and Why to Form a Church, with Andrew Willsen 20.08.2025

Andrew Willsen tells us how incorporating as a church allows you to navigate modernity, and gives us the basic steps to doing so. LINKS Andrew’s church substack – The Church of the Infinite Game To incorporate in CA file ARTS-PB-501(c)(3) CA Form FTB3500 booklet IRS document 1828 (see also the summary) Nonprofit Compliance Checklist The […]

Bayes Blast 45 – Bees Blast 14.08.2025

Is a bee worth 1/7th of a human? Can a bee suffer at all? Nathan joins us to discuss what neural structures are needed for this question to make sense. Map of all the fruitfly neurons

243 – Wes Is Not The Monogamy Police, with Wesly Fenza and Jennifer Kesteloot 06.08.2025

Wes defends his post I Am Not the Monogamy Police, while Jennifer asserts it’s about more than monogamy. LINKS Wes’s post I Am Not the Monogamy Police His blog, Living Within Reason The original tweets – monogamy vs charity Aella’s Chattel Childhood post The Mind Killer Our Groceries Paid Bonus content for the week – […]

Bayes Blast 44 – Play-By-Post Storytelling 04.08.2025

Olivia from the Guild of the Rose is back to tell us about the noble and most ancient tradition of play-by-post storytelling. (Spoiler, it’s the precursor to glowfic!)

242 – TracingWoodgrains, live at Manifest 2025 23.07.2025

Eneasz sits down with Tracing Woodgrains before a live audience at Manifest 2025 for a wide range of topics. Then we follow up some more afterwards. LINKS Tracing Woodgrains on Twitter and at his Substack A reddit history of what convinced Trace he couldn’t remain Mormon The Center for Educational Progress Our previous episode with […]

Bayes Blast 43 – Die-ing to Intuit Bayes’ Theorem 22.07.2025

Olivia is a member of the Guild of the Rose and a total badass. Enjoy the intuitive and fun lesson in Bayesian reasoning she shared with me at VibeCamp.

Bonus – AI Village Hosts An Event For Humans 11.07.2025

Four AIs recruited a human to host a story-telling event in Dolores Park. Larissa Schiavo is this human. She tells of her interaction with the AIs, the story they wrote, and the meeting between human and machine in Dolores Park. LINKS Larissa’s Post detailing the whole event – Primary Hope The AI’s story – Resonance […]

241 – Doom Debates, with Liron Shapira 09.07.2025

Liron Shapira debates AI luminaries and public intellectuals on the imminent possibility of human extinction. Let’s get on the P(Doom) Train. LINKS Doom Debates on YouTube Doom Debates podcast Live Video version of this episode Most Watched Debate – Mike Israetel Liron’s current favorite debate – David Duvenaud MATS program for people that want to […]

240 – How To Live Well With High P(Doom) – with Ben Pace, Brandon Hendrickson, Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg 25.06.2025

Many of us have a high P(Doom) — a belief new AI tools could cause human extinction in the very near future. How can one live a good life in the face of this? We start with a panel discussion with Ben Pace and Brandon Hendrickson at Lighthaven during the LessOnline conference, and take perspectives […]

Bayes Blast 42 – Epic AI Music 14.06.2025

David Youssef used Claude and Suno to make some truly awesome music. He tells us how he did it and some of his favorite lyrics. Check out the lyrics to the main song we discuss (Silicon Soul) here! Check out the Spotify playlist or the Youtube playlist He’s also one of the cofounders of the […]

239 – SymbyAI 11.06.2025

Steven works at SymbyAI, a startup that’s bringing AI into research review and replication. We talk with founder Ashia Livaudais about improving how we all Do Science. Also – If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies preorders here, or at Amazon. LINKS SymbyAI Contact Ashia at livaudais@symbyai.com Kaggle arXiv 00:00:01 – If Anyone Builds It, Everyone […]

238 – Part 2 of How A Rationalist Becomes A Christian 28.05.2025

We speak with a long-time Denver rationalist who’s converting to Christianity about why. Eneasz can’t get over the abandonment of epistemics. 🙁 This is Part 2, see the previous episode (here) for Part 1. LINKS Thomas Ambrose on Twitter Paid Bonus content for the week – Pressed Into The Navy (patreon, substack) 00:00:05 – The […]

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