Multipolarity

As Ukraine punches into Kursk, and the world asks whether this is this more Kaiserschlacht, or more Ardennes Offensive, cooler heads are focused on the bigger picture.  Word is Kamala Harris is going to sack Jake Sullivan. Given that Trump would have sacked him anyway, we’re now into a world where the pro-Ukraine top team is, fait accompli, gone. Which means the US pivot to Asia is increasing...

Kamala Harris is ahead in six key swing states - according to several major polls. All of which are categorically wrong.  Could the ghost of the Shy Trumper be about to smite the Dems for the third election running? And why are the usual media suspects pretending it isn’t a thing, never has been, never could be?  Meanwhile, in Malaysia and Indonesia, a new domino theory is starting to st...

The bears are coming. As Japan posts the biggest one day stock market losses since Black Monday, we’re asking whether this dip is a passing blip – or the big ka-blam?  Meanwhile, Argentina’s reserves include almost two million ounces of gold, valued at $4.5 billion. But lately, there’s a question that’s on everybody’s lips: where is it?  The gold seems to have been transferred out of the...

Last weekend, Viktor Orbán travelled to the town of Băile Tușnad, deep in the Transylvanian mountains of Romania, to attend a 'music and ideas' festival. He was on the bill. Amongst the ethnically-Hungarian diaspora who live in the region, Orbán is a regular visitor. In fact, the Tusványos festival was started by Fidesz back when the party was effectively four people. That was in the early-90s. To...

At 4.32pm on the 18th of August the so-called State Committee on the State of Emergency cut the lines of communication to Soviet President Mikhail Gorbacev's dacha - these included telephone communications and the nuclear command and control system. Eight minutes later Lieutenant General Yuri Plekhanov, Head of the 9th Chief Directorate of the KGB, let the group into the dacha where they demanded...

You were only supposed to blow his bloody head off... As Donald Trump is saved by God Almighty, we’re indisputably living in the lucky timeline. But while the country might have dodged civil war, American politics has been changed utterly by the events of Saturday. And still not for the better.  Meanwhile, Trump’s VP pick is lukewarm on Britain, and positively tepid on Project Ukraine. He’s b...

Viktor Orban has been taking secret flights. Dodging the CIA’s aviation monitoring to jet into Moscow.      The Hungarian honcho is now fashioning himself as a shuttle diplomat in the Russo-Ukranian War, just as his country takes the rotating Presidency of the EU Council.  What was the goal of this clandestine trip? And did he still get the air miles?   Meanwhile...

In the halls of modern government the info-wizard is king. Media consultants, political strategists, whatever title they assume they always promise the same thing: magic worked through information control; spells cast by incantation. In the first week of March 2022, only a few days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a slew of articles came out in Western publications announcing the advent of t...

This week, it’s a double header of audio essays on Europe’s elite power-plays.  One From Andrew Collingwood - on the Atlanticists and the Autonomists taking their battle for supremacy into the new EU administration.   And another from Philip Pilkington setting out how a new kind of Trussification may be coming for the states within the ECB…  Is Le Pen mightier than La Banque? ...

As Vladimir Putin meets Kim Jong Un, big trade plans are afoot. Much to the chagrin of Western leaders.  Seems like we’re about to answer an important question: what happens when the collective set of people you’ve sanctioned gets so large that they can all successfully trade with each other? Which invites yet another question - did no one think of this?  Javier Milei decided he would ri...

Military-industrial blogger Malcom Kyeyune spends his life talking and thinking about US war preparations. So what was it like when he finally left his Swedish fortress and visited the capital of the Global American Empire, Washington DC? Malcom is just back from his first international conference. The Lads pick up on his time talking to the generals and the bureaucrats, and wonder whether the num...

Mexico has a new President.  She’s the first woman President. She’s the first Jewish president.  But most importantly, she’s the second Andrés Manuel López Obrador President.  As the outgoing leader’s hand picked successor takes over, what does the continuity version of his wiley non-orthodox socialism look like when it comes to Mexico’s global standing?  Meanwhile, for once Am...

This week: in light of the upcoming UK General Election, we're digging into what Britain will look like in five years time. Caught in a low growth high-debt trap, with currency and trade issues cutting off any room to manoeuvre, what's the softest landing for the G7's most vulnerable economy?  *** This is a premium week.  So  to get the full hour show, you’ll have to be signed up on...

The assassination attempt on Robert Fico has left Europe bemused.    Shouldn’t it have left Europe stunned?       In an age where condemnation of violent rhetoric has never been fiercer, it seems condemnation of actual violence has seldom been milder.     As we move into a more fractious and populist age, what are the implications of the media’s se...

This week, a special edition. Two relatively short term scenarios, with very long term implications. Presented in audio essay form, by our two hosts. In Part One, Philip Pilkington outlines his take on what could happen after the US election. An extended sketch on the possibilty of violent Trussification. He thinks that bond market bullying of the incoming Trump administration could in turn set of...

Belgrade. Budapest. It’s not the classic tourist itinerary – but by his very footprints, Xi Jinping’s historic state visit is redrawing the power map of Europe. What does the continent look like once he’s done stomping about?  Meanwhile, the Pound is in deep trouble - the Egyptian Pound, that is.  As the land of the pharaohs takes a 45 % haircut on its currency, Egypt is spreading its mu...

This week, as advertised on Twitter dot com, the lads are answering your questions. Among other topics, they cover: Rent-seeking behaviour in the West.  Airbus.  The German elite.  The Mexican-American standoff Book recommendations.  The life-changing magic of JM Keynes And memes. Of course, this is also a premium week.  So  to get the full two hour show, you’ll have...

Like Germany hiding in the Euro, China have long played the game of keeping their currency soft, to juice their exports.   But now, with the accelerator still jammed to the floor on US inflation, it seems that the powers in Beijing might be looking to devalue the Rimimbi even further.          Everyone plays currency games - the trick is not to get...

A diplomatic incident in Latin America has somehow become the focal point for an ever-expanding range of stories - from the Venezuelan elections, to US energy policy to Ecuadorian banana exports to Russia.  Leading even coolheaded observers to ponder the question: are we approaching the Latin American embassy incident singularity?  Meanwhile, there are always good tariffs and bad tariffs...

Little Rocket Man has a new toy. This month, Kim Jong Un unveiled a Bond-villain-like missile with an extending tip. On that tip was what looks to be a hypersonic glide vehicle.  A hypersonic glide vehicle is the real deal. They're extremely fast. They can manoeuvre at those high speeds. And we don’t yet know if it’s possible to shoot them down.  On paper, this means that North Korea has...

The Atlanticists versus the Autonomists -  the European civil war coming soon to a bureaucracy near you.  It’s long been a theme of this show that the continent is being slowly capsized by its long term problems, related to energy and productivity.  We’ll be picking through three news items that tell the short term story of the continent’s woes.   Terrible producer confide...

New research from Bloomberg says that Beijing is steering the Chinese economy away from the recent real estate boom, and into high tech manufacturing.  It’s a drive estimated to be worth 19% of GDP by 2026.  Running the numbers, not only is China Collapse Theory once again proved false, the market may even have under-priced how much gas there still is in the tank.    Meanwhile,...

This is a special edition of Multipolarity on  The Economic Consequences Of The War.  In 1919, JM Keynes wrote The Economic Consequences of the Peace. Predicting the death of the old world order after Europe’s first unsuccessful attempt at suicide.  We aren’t yet at peace, but the economic consequences of the present war in the middle of Europe are starting to come into view. ...

NVIDIA has become a stock market behemoth on the back of their AI-friendly graphics chips. Last week saw them hit a $2.19 trillion market capitalisation. So are they the future of the globe’s most info-critical resource - or a sign that we’re entering the Pets.com era of the AI age? Meanwhile, after months of delays and diplomatic blocking operations, Sweden and Finland are officially in NATO.&nbs...

Does the housing market obey the laws of supply and demand?  We say no.  Join us for a controversial, possibly mind-blowing journey into the heart of darkness, into an upside-down-world that set Twitter on fire this week.  Victoria Nuland has fallen on her sword. Or someone else’s sword. Whatever happened to America’s third-ranking diplomat, suddenly retiring at 62 while her Preside...