Macro Bytes

 The UK just held its budget, and France is trying to pass one. Both economies have both been in the bond market's sights this year. Their deficits are of a similar size, but the political outlook and institutional structures are very different. In this episode of Macro Bytes, Paul Diggle and Lizzy Galbraith are joined by Felix Feather to compare and contrast the economic, political and bond...

With less than one week to go until the second round of the Brazilian presidential election, Lizzy Galbraith is joined by Tettey Addy to discuss the candidacies of Flavio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, including what the first round tells us about the likely outcome, whether the next president can meet investor expectations of ambitious fiscal reform, and what the out...

President Trump may not be on the ballot, but the 2026 US midterms are shaping up to be a referendum on his presidency. Paul Diggle and Lizzy Galbraith unpack strong Democratic momentum, what Aberdeen's election model implies for control of Congress, the key Senate battlegrounds to watch, and what different election outcomes could mean for fiscal policy, AI regulation, and financial markets.

The global monetary policy cycle has turned back to hiking, following two years of (nearly) synchronised rate cuts. In this episode of Macro Bytes, Chief Economist Paul Diggle is joined by Jon Butcher, Felix Feather and Sree Kochugovindan from Aberdeen's Global Macro Research team to discuss the shift back towards monetary tightening. A week or two on from major decisions from the US Federal...

AI may be digital, but its success depends on a very physical reality: data centre construction. As investment in AI infrastructure surges, local opposition is growing too, with concerns over power use, water consumption, visual intrusion, and noise all prominent. In this episode, Paul and Lizzy are joined by Nancy Hardie from Aberdeen’s sustainability team, and Tim O'Reilly from datacentre d...

Long-term bond yields have been hitting multi-decade highs. Lizzy Galbraith and Paul Diggle discuss the drivers of this increase in government borrowing costs, what policymakers can and can’t do about it, and at what point higher yields weigh on the economy and broader financial markets. The AI capital investment boom and hyperscaler issuance are playing an important role in driving yields up, but...

Andy Burnham is set to become Britain’s Prime Minister on 20 July and promises a new style of governance - “Manchesterism”. Luke and Lizzy discuss what Manchesterism means in practice, whether devolution is a credible growth strategy, how a Burnham government might navigate financial markets, and how tight fiscal constraints could ultimately limit both its policy agenda and political fortunes.

Many economists and investors try to predict the business cycle in order to time their investments into financial markets. In this episode, Paul and Luke speak to Tyler Goodspeed, author of “Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It”, who rejects much conventional wisdom on the business cycle, arguing instead that recessions are the result of external shocks that cannot...

Most central banks started the year preparing to cut interest rates further. Then geopolitics intervened. In this episode Paul and Luke unpack how the Iran-driven energy shock has upended rate expectations, why different central banks are responding in different ways, and what that means for inflation and growth. We also tackle two key market questions: what will new Fed chair Kevin Warsh do with...

Near earth orbit is increasingly a site of economic activity, and a domain of great power competition. Paul and Luke are joined by Hannah Lee, Thematic Investment Researcher at JP Morgan, to discuss how the collapse in launch costs has opened up a wide range of commercial use cases for space, the prospect of placing data centres, semi-conductor fabrication, and pharmaceutical development in orbit,...

The UK local and devolved regional elections are shaping up to be rough for the incumbent Labour party. Speculation about political leadership change is likely to increase as a result. If there is a change of UK Prime Minister (and Chancellor), who could it be, what would be the process, and most importantly for Macro Bytes, what are the economic and market implications? Paul and Lizzy lay out the...

The release of China’s Deepseek R1 model last year, which rivalled many US large language models but was trained at a fraction of the cost, seemed to kick-off a new realm of competition between the US and China. Luke is joined by Robert Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at Aberdeen, to discuss the nature of the AI race between the US and China, who is currently winning, whether governmen...

The Iran war is now in its 5th week, longer than many in the market seem to have been expecting, and it continues to be a source of significant asset price volatility. Paul and Luke are joined by Victoria Scholar, Head of Investment at interactive investor, to consider the market and investor reaction to the conflict. They discuss the significance of the oil price as both barometer and transmissio...

The war in Iran and the wider Middle East has dealt a significant blow to asset prices. Paul, Luke and Lizzy look at the US and Israel’s war aims and examine why Iran’s response has been larger than expected. They go on to consider what asset prices appear to be pricing in about the likely outcome of the conflict, and what this could mean for growth, inflation and interest rates. They also reflect...

The war in Ukraine is now four years old, and the nature of modern warfighting - and Europe’s defence needs - has shifted dramatically as a result. Lizzy and Paul talk to John Ridge and Erin Hallock of the NATO Innovation Fund, a multi‑government‑backed venture capital fund, about the accelerating pace of innovation on the battlefield, why governments must procure and adopt defence technology far...

2026 has started with a flurry of political shocks. Luke and Lizzy talk to Jens Larsen, Practice Head of Geoeconomics at Eurasia Group, about the structurally elevated geopolitical volatility that investors now face and why this matter to markets. They discuss the fundamental drivers of heightened political risk, including the end of the unipolar moment and the re-emergence of great power competit...

With President Trump threatening fresh tariffs on various economies, trade wars are back in focus.  Moreover, the risk of the trade war spreading to a capital war has become more pressing. The EU has been considering activating its “Anti-Coercion Instrument” in response to US threats to Greenland, which could see services trade and capital flows targeted.  Paul, Luke, and Lizzy discuss how a capit...

The recent US intervention in Venezuela is a vivid demonstration of the new so-called ‘Donroe Doctrine’ asserting complete US supremacy in the western hemisphere. Paul, Luke, and Lizzy discuss the historical context of America’s new foreign policy stance and what it might mean for various neighbours including Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Cuba, and Greenland. They also consider potential read across f...

The coming year is going to see more economic and geopolitical volatility for investors to navigate. Paul asks members of the Aberdeen Investments research team to outline the big questions they are asking as we head into 2026 – including the outlook for monetary policy under a new Fed chair, whether China can tackle its deflation problem, and the risk of an AI bubble bursting.

The much-anticipated UK budget has finally been announced. Paul and Luke are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to break down the economic and market implications of the tax rises, spending increases, and higher fiscal headroom. Financial markets liked what they saw in the budget, but the team highlight the backloaded nature of the tax increases, question markets around future spending plans, and the possi...

The world isn’t deglobalising, it’s fracturing – splitting into US and China blocs, along manufacturing, technological, and financial lines. Paul speaks to Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics and author of The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy. Paul and Neil talk about what the hyper-globalisation consensus that economic interdepend...

US export controls on high-end semiconductor chips, and Chinese control over rare earth supply, are just the most recent examples of major economies weaponising chokepoints in the global economy. Paul and Luke speak to Edward Fishman, a former US State Department sanctions official, Colombia University professor, and author of “Chokepoints: How the Global Economy Became a Weapon of War”, about the...

France has been cycling through Prime Ministers, as the government struggles to pass a budget through a divided parliament. Paul and Luke talk to Lizzy Galbraith and Felix Feather about France’s political and fiscal challenges, what’s unique about France’s problems compared to other ageing and indebted Western democracies, and what a potential victory for the extremes of French politics at the 202...

  With the US Federal Reserve under intense political pressure and the labour market at an inflection point, understanding how the FOMC might respond to shocks is critical for financial markets. Paul and Luke talk to Professor Tara Sinclair of George Washington University about her groundbreaking working paper FOMC in Silico , which uses AI personas to model the Fed’s decision-making process. They...

  The UK Budget is about two months away. The Chancellor is once again facing the prospect of her fiscal rules being breached, and the likely need to tighten fiscal policy. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith, senior political economist at Aberdeen, to discuss the Chancellor’s tough choices, potential tax increases, and the state of the UK economy more broadly.