Inside Markets

AAPL results this afternoon could also have macro implications given the setup. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The pullback in bond yields keeps a tenuous relief rally in the conversation, but the move falls short of signaling a short-term trend reversal.  Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The -10% correction in the SPX and NDX has resulted in oversold conditions that can provide some fuel for a relief rally. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Today's rebound in US equities reflects some catalyst anticipation. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Equity sentiment is nowhere near bearish extremes and shouldn't be considered a bullish contrarian signal. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com

We keep our bearish tactical outlook on the S&P 500 (SPX) based on the recent breakdown in cyclical indices and concerns that elevated bond market volatility could spill into equity markets.   Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com

Markets are leading indicators and ongoing weakness in the Russell 2000 (RTY) is an early warning of slowing economic activity ahead.   Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

All major US benchmarks have formed bearish distributions patterns since late July. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

All bond yield tenors are moving to cycle highs with closing levels key to the near-term outlook.   Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The end of a Fed hiking cycle once inflation is vanquished should be positive for risk assets. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com. The overshoot in headline CPI came mostly from higher shelter prices, while the Fed’s preferred ‘super core’ rate that excludes housing declined to 3.91% YoY from 4.05% in August.

An end of the hiking cycle doesn’t mean the tightening cycle is over.   Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

We may be in the early stages of a transition phase, where a decline in bond yields reflects rapidly growth expectations. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is staging a small relief rally from oversold levels after holding key technical support near 4200. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Tomorrow’s Jobs Report and next Thursday’s CPI print could materially change the outlook for bond yields and equities. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The recent backup in yields has been largely disconnected from fundamentals. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Pandemic-related fiscal spending in the spring of '21 was unnecessary and reckless given that US manufacturing PMI was at an all-time record high. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

US equity markets will struggle to advance as rising bond yields threaten valuation multiples, present a near-term drag on growth and increase the risk of dislocation in funding markets. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

This morning’s release of US core PCE and Eurozone CPI fail to shift an emerging stagflation narrative. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

The only fundamental justification for the recent backup in bond yields seems to come from the extended rally in crude oil and its assumed eventual impact on inflation expectations. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com

Higher realized volatility remains our primary concern. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com

Breakdowns in cyclically-sensitive indices are now leading the broader US benchmarks lower. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com

Equity volatility has advanced from a mid-September low. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

US consumer strength has been a major reason to doubt near-term recession risk all year, but some cracks are beginning to show. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

Yesterday, the Russell 2000 (RTY) broke support near its 200-day moving average after a bearish distribution pattern developed in late August. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.