In Moscow's Shadows

(It seems to be obligatory to use a weak BRICS/bricks pun, so I felt I had to follow...) The BRICS summit in Kazan (a smart place to hold it) gives all the appearances of being a propaganda win for Putin. However, I think it emphasised that in a new 'multipolar' world, he only has the friends he can afford to rent -- and some day the bill will become due. In the second half, I question w...

Released to Patrons yesterday, a bonus mini-pod on the claims that North Korean combat troops are heading to fight in Ukraine and what the media discussion also says about the current discourse. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situati...

An all-spook episode, as I try to piece together the rise of FSB First Deputy Director Sergei Korolev, who seems the most likely figure to succeed current agency chief Bortnikov. Corruption, clientelism, feuds, the power of the St Petersburg clique, and the implications if Korolev does rise. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and...

At times it does look as if the emigre liberal opposition to Putin is in such a mess that it looks like a soap opera. So what are some of the recent plot twists and why are they so divided -- and, ultimately, is it necessarily such a bad thing? In the second half, should Russians have collective guilt for Putin and the war? I don't think so, and explain why -- and why it matters. The podcast&...

The appointment to the Security Council of Alexander Linets, head of the Main Directorate of Special Programs of the President of the Russian Federation (GUSP), is a suitable moment to look into this, the most secret of Russia's security agencies. Is it about more than just bunkers and the continuity of governance in an apocalypse? Is there any truth that it is the final 'watcher over th...

Putin's at it again, raising nuclear fears to unsettle the West. Or is the new revision to Russian nuclear doctrine more than just a bit of sabre-rattling? I suggest it is, with bearing on potential Ukrainian endgames. But we ought not to become too fearful: as I discuss in the second half, there are good reasons for him not to use his non-strategic nuclear weapons. The podcast's corpora...

While the Security Council itself is having its time wasted with trivia, new Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu has been busy. How has he survived (is it the shaman connection? It is not), and what do his goals seem to be? And, with President Zelensky about to unveil his 'victory plan', are the two sides beginning to contemplate possible endgames? The podcast's corporate partn...

I still haven't decided how/if to continue with these mid-week quickfire podcasts picking up on some news stories that catch my eye, but in the meantime, there's a divorce/business shootout in Moscow, more traffic fines (it matters, believe me) and another general under arrest. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and imme...

What may a misadventure from 17th century Russian imperial history tell us about modern Russia? Why, about the perils of information logjams and public-private empires! Details of the Pushkin House event I mentioned are here , and the Pertsev article is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hy...

As promised, a quickfire interim episode covering some of the past week's stories, from drones over Moscow and reactions to the US presidential debate to regional elections and planning for babies... The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and simil...

I spin off two recent books, Elena Kostychenko's, I Love Russia. Reporting from a lost country and Sergei Medvedev's A War Made in Russia , both of which are excellent in their own terms, but also demonstrate something of a tendency for Russian intelligentsia to despair at their own country and people and fixate on the very worse. This is perhaps understandable but, as I suggest, neither...

Empty rumours of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's death on the internet yesterday, got me thinking about his shrinking role, and the twilight of Russia's technocrats. Besides, he is already politically dead, so it’s in a way not too early to deliver his obituary and use that to consider some of the dilemmas and characteristics of senior figures who are technocrats, not Putin cron...

After another armed hostage taking by inmates (and bloody response), I consider what’s going on in Russia’s prisons, and what it may tell us about what’s happening in Russia as a whole. And in the last segment, I consider attitudes to Prigozhin, a year after his death. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exerci...

As Ukraine's Kursk incursion rumbles on, what does it tell us about the political processes in Russia behind the warfighting? From how Russians really aren't apathetic and however low their expectations of their government may be, and do have a breaking point, to how Putin depends on and betrays his men on the spot, rumination about some wider developments and an historical parallel with...

I had hoped to not have to record a podcast this weekend, but life does enjoy its little pranks. A slightly shorter than usual episode on Ukraine's unexpected, unfolding and unpredictable move into Russia. The  Kommersant article I mention is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid w...

Where to start? The prisoner exchange and subsequent furore over released dissidents' statements? More arrests of senior military figures? The bizarre shenanigans over a controversial merger in Russian online business? Wagner's heavy losses in Mali? I try tackling them all. NB: Updated 5 August to reflect Ilya Yashin's subsequent further comments on the war. The BNE Intellinews arti...

With Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich sentenced to 16 years on what I consider wholly spurious espionage charges (and I explain why I think this), it's a suitable moment first to consider the likely reasons but also what kind of experience faces him in the Russian prison camp system. That leads me on to discuss three recent books of relevance: Vladimir Pereverzin's The Priso...

The Rosgvardiya, the National Guard, is the final backstop of Putin's rule, the public order force on which he relies to control the streets.* However, facing growing protest at home and engaged in pacifying occupied Ukraine, they and their commander, the thuggish Viktor Zolotov, are under pressure. How well are they coping? *Admittedly, arguably the FSO, the Federal Protection Service, is cl...

The claim that Russian intelligence planned to murder a German industrialist highlights the Kremlin's escalating campaign of mayhem and disruption in Europe, from arson to disruptive cyberattacks. Why is Putin -- who was initially rather more cautious -- now raising the stakes and, more to the point, what can we do about it? The Meduza report from Buryatia I mentioned is here . The podcast&ap...

Will the change in government in London and Sir Keir Starmer's elevation to prime minister  mean anything for Kyiv and Moscow? Are there lessons to be learned about how Moscow handles foreign elections, whether in terms of subversive operations or managing its own expectations? A few early thoughts, even though the honest answer is that not much is likely to change. The podcast's corpora...

A compilation of current issues, which will nonetheless somehow connect: The Trump-Biden debate : what does the Kremlin really want? Nepotism : why are the princelings returning to politics? Terrorism in Dagestan : what does it portend? Covert Ops : ought the West be in the assassination business? The Spectator piece I mentioned is here . Tickets for the 9 July book event in London I mention are a...

Exactly one year after Prigozhin's Wagner mercenary army began its mutiny, what has changed, and what can be learned? And why are so many Russians so keen to believe Prigozhin himself is not dead? In the second half of this bumper episode, the full first chapter of the audiobook of my and Anna Arutunyan's new book Downfall. Prigozhin, Putin, and the new fight for the future of Russia (Eb...

Ukraine's Ten Point Peace Plan, which received only limited endorsement at the recent Swiss Peace Summit, is essentially a demand for Russia's surrender. Putin's recent statement of conditions for negotiations is likewise a call for Kyiv to capitulate. Is this a complete impasse? Yes and no -- they are best considered as 'pre-peace positioning' in preparation for any futur...

Putin's lengthy Q&A at the St Petersburg International Forum (SPIEF), in conversation with hawkish academic Sergei Karaganov, provided a useful opportunity to gauge his mood and his vision for both war and peace. From whether Russia is European (yes) to whether he needs to go nuclear in Ukraine (no), one can certainly question many of his claims and assumptions, but he sounded more confid...

An episode of various bits and pieces: what (if anything) can we read into Alexei Dyumin's appointment to be secretary of the State Council, what (if anything) is the Western thinking about escalation and deterrence over Ukraine and what (if anything) is interesting about Denis Manturov, the new First Deputy PM? The previous podcast in which I talk about Dyumin and Tula is #48, here . The art...