The Weekly Insight

Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave his much anticipated “Jackson Hole” speech on Friday.  After last year’s hard-hitting speech on the inflation battle, this year’s comments were highly anticipated.  Powell’s comments were much calmer this year, and the market loved them.  But they also gave some signs about things to come. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-more-thing...

August has not been the best month in the markets this year. Interestingly enough, that’s consistent with nearly 40 years of history as it ranks as the worst month of market returns going back all the way to 1986. But is this the start of something bad? Or is the market just taking a breath in our current bull rally.  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-august-never-f...

It was inflation week again last week – the first of two before the next Fed meeting.  And the results were interesting.  Some called it a “hot” reading.  Others thought it wasn’t so bad.  But what we did see, in both CPI and PPI, was a slight tick up.  But part of that is tied to the math around the “base case”. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-base-case/

After months of the focus being on the Fed and interest rates, we got a surprise from left field: Fitch downgraded the U.S.A.’s credit rating. Given the “validity of the public debt” is quite literally written into the U.S. Constitution, it was a telling moment. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-validity-of-the-public-debt/

It was Fed Week last week, and the market was hanging on Jerome Powell’s words at the podium. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-are-we-there-yet/

An interesting thing has happened since the Fed – against the belief of most of the market – announced they were going to raise rates twice more this year: no one cared. The market is up strongly since the last Fed meeting as inflation has fallen along with recession expectations. So what does that mean for this week’s Fed meeting (and likely rate increase)?  Read more here: https://insightwealthg...

Last week was a remarkable week for the markets in that – as we anticipate another rate hike next week – we got some fantastic inflation and economic data. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-embrace-the-good/

We hope this week finds you well rested after the 4th of July Holiday!  The market was a little sluggish last week as many on Wall Street were out for the break. But there was a lot of news from the Fed, and we are – bluntly – dumbfounded by some of their comments.  Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-data-dependent/

Chairman Powell went in front of Congress last week and made sure everyone got his message: more rate hikes are coming.  And the market is taking note as we push for “sufficiently restrictive” interest rate policy.  But what is “sufficient”?  Is the Fed just intent on ramming us into a recession?  Are we close to one? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-sufficient-eno...

It was Fed Week last week. The long and short of it? Only Jerome Powell can make the first pause in rate hikes in 14 months seem like a punishment! But the market is handling it well. And we got substantively good inflation data last week to go with it. Take a look and let us know your thoughts! Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-threading-the-needle

The big news last week was that the S&P has officially entered into “bull market” territory.  That’s great news – and we’re never ones to look a gift horse in the mouth.  But just how durable is this bull market? And what might throw it off track?  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fattening-the-bull/

One down, one to go. Washington walked us right up to the edge of a default debacle, but, in an extraordinary showing of bipartisanship, passed a debt ceiling deal that avoided catastrophe (and ensured we don’t have to worry about it again until 2025). So now we’re on to the next problem: is the Fed done raising rates? We take a look at what’s coming for the Fed meeting next week. Read more here:...

The debt ceiling debate continues to be the driver for market messaging this week. But there is some uncertainty of just how urgent the deadline is. And once – if – we get a resolution, there are some promising signs on the other side. Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-x-date/

It was CPI week last week – and the results were solid. But the media shifted its focus to a different inflation gauge: “Super Core” inflation. What does it mean? And why is it important? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-super-core/

It was Fed week again. And again, the market’s initial response to Chairman Powell’s comments was…less than optimistic.  But a funny thing happened after the meeting.  Folks started to understand that the likelihood of a “pause” in rate hikes is real.  And Powell’s optimism on the economy seeped into the market on Friday. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-cleared-fo...

Last week was a fairly uneventful week in the market as the world waits for the results of the upcoming FOMC meeting (this Wednesday).  So in this week’s edition of the Weekly Insight Podcast, we take the opportunity to look at the debate over the debt ceiling.  This issue, while likely to be resolved, has the potential to be very damaging to our economy if the politicians screw it up.  Read more...

We’re at an important inflection point for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. The meeting coming up in just 9 days may be the most important of the whole cycle and the market is on edge about what the Fed will do next. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-true-hope-vs-false-hope/

Wrapping up something like one of the quickest rises in interest rate policy in history was never going to be easy. But last week we started to see some of the most visible cracks amongst FOMC members on the correct path moving forward.  What does this mean for markets over the coming weeks and months? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-some-vs-several/

It was a relatively quiet holiday week in the markets last week. We probably won’t be that lucky this week with the CPI data coming out on Wednesday. But we thought we’d take the break in the action to look at a much longer-term problem: Social Security. The trustees of the Social Security Trust Fund put out their annual analysis 10 days ago. It wasn’t pretty. Read more here:  https://insightwealt...

It was a good week in the markets last week as fears of a major bank contagion subsided and continuing positive data on inflation rolled in. This pause in the "drama" gives us a chance to look into future risks and this week we look at the economic impact of the end of payment forebearance on student loans. It has the potential to be a big one. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup....

Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-so-closeand-yet-so-far/

Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-loose/

It’s easy to get swept up in the news.  Last week was no different.  Chairman Powell’s comments to Congress shook expectations for interest rates.  But sometimes it is important to look back and see how trends are moving over the long-term, instead of getting wrapped up in the day-to-day. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-wheres-the-peak-part-2/

We all have had formative experiences in our youth.  Maybe it was that first job, or successes in academics or athletics.  For the team at Insight, one of most memorable (not always in a good way!) experiences was our time working at McDonald’s.  Everyone should have to flip a burger when they’re young.  It teaches you a lot.  But what we didn’t imagine at the time was that the price of a McDonald...

There was a great deal of fretting in the market last week.  Higher than expected PCE numbers, a renewed focus on Ukraine, and growing expectations of rate hikes weighed on all indices.  There is habit in the market of having a short-term bias – a focus on the latest news of the moment.  But sometimes we need to peel back the onion and look deeper.  In this week’s episode, we take a deeper look at...