The Weekly Insight

Three years ago this week was the first time we wrote one of these memos. 156 weeks – and 156 memos – later, we will be the first to admit it is sometimes hard to produce a topic to talk about each week. What is important? What will you – our readers – find interesting? Over the last several years, the entire world has been consumed by creating “content”. The financial media is no different.

It has not exactly been a three-year period full of good news. It's understandable, then, when we have a good start to the year – as we have so far in 2023 – we’re all waiting for the other shoe to drop.  This week we want to dive into that “other shoe” and why, even if it does drop, we still think portfolios can have a strong recovery year.  Let’s dive in.

There have been many “post-Fed” commentaries in these pages over the last year, an indication of just how important interest rate policy has been to the market and the economy.  We’ve digested and expounded on countless Powell-isms and tried to read the tea leaves of where the Fed is going. Listen in to hear more on this week's episode. Read More: https://insightwealthgroup.com/hearing-what-w...

This has been a weird start to the year.  Sentiment – at least as reported on the news – is decidedly negative.  Market performance? Just the opposite.  But the markets seem to be on path for a phenomenon which has historically indicated bullish sentiment.  We walk through that trigger – and what may be standing in its way – in this week’s edition of the Weekly Insight. Read more here: https://ins...

There’s a tug of war going on with market sentiment right now. The earnings season has kicked off and – at least last week – it wasn’t pretty. But the broader economic data we’re seeing – including last week’s PMI read – keep looking better and better. The result? A choppy week in the market as neither side is coming out the victor. What is going sway this battle for momentum in the market? Read m...

It's been a good start to the year in the markets. But a lot of “pundits” are warning of a drop in earnings or an earnings recession. That’s a scary term – but what does it mean for market performance? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-bad-earnings-good-markets/

Anyone thinking we would ease into 2023 was given a wake-up call last week. The long and drawn out battle for the House Speakership was the big news story – and while it didn’t impact markets directly, the concessions made to get Kevin McCarthy the Speaker’s gavel may have lingering effects. And then there was the jobs report – something that has caused drama many times in recent months.  Read mor...

It’s tempting to write the “Crystal Ball” piece this time of year. But we’re not fortune tellers at Insight.  We can, however, pick out big trends and begin to understand how they might impact the market in the coming year. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-big-trends/

Happy Holidays! In our last podcast before the holidays, we take a look at the recent pronouncements from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and what they mean as we look into 2023. The market reacted a bit like Clark from Christmas Vacation getting a subscription to the Jelly of the Month Club. But should we have been surprised? Or did Chairman Powell do exactly what we should have expected by now? ...

It was a slow week in the markets as everyone waits for the “Powell-palooza” we’re going to get at the year-end Fed meeting this week.  Economic data was positive throughout the week and showed inflation continuing to come down – if not at the pace some would like.  Given the break in the action, we wanted to bring you up to speed on a piece of legislation that may work its way through Congress be...

Last week saw a number of wild swings in the market from a mixed bag of economic data and the last major comments from Chairman Powell prior to the next Fed meeting. Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-mixed-bag/

Last week, we discussed the four big “expectation moments” for the market for the rest of this year. With the release of the Fed minutes last Wednesday, we have one of those moments behind us. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-tea-leaves/

Happy Thanksgiving! We hope you’re able to enjoy some quality time with your family this week. Just a quick reminder that the markets are closed on Thursday and close at 12:00PM CST on Friday. Our offices will keep the same hours. Last week was a bit of a hangover from the (very good) CPI data. A very optimistic market got put back in its place a bit by the Fed, and the errant missile strike in Po...

 Well that was a great week! We finally got the election behind us (except for those of you in Georgia…). And we got a tremendous report on inflation on Thursday. The result was a swell in optimism in the market. That is undoubtedly good news, but is it possible the market is getting out ahead of itself (and the Fed)? Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-patience-is-k...

Fed Chairman Powell freaked everyone out again with his remarks after the Fed’s interest rate decision last week. But was it really as bad as some were saying? Or was it just more of the same as we continue to wait for better jobs data and lower CPI reads (coming Thursday)? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-dance-continues/

Happy Halloween! We hope you’re celebrating in an appropriately spooky way. But we also hope that things don’t get too spooky in the markets this week – and that all depends on the Fed meeting Wednesday. We know (we think) they’re going to raise rates by 0.75%. But can their forward guidance give the market confidence to continue our current rally? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/th...

We’ve avoided it for as long as we can, but it’s time…we have to talk about the election. As they say, elections have consequences – and this one likely will for the market as well. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-gridlock-is-good/

Feeling nauseous yet? The month of October has been a rollercoaster ride for the markets. But the end result after all of the drama of the first half of the month? The market is flat. Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-rollercoaster/

A client bumped us after the jobs report and subsequent volatility on Friday with this question: “So, a good jobs report is bad, and a bad jobs report is good?” That’s the upside down world in which we’re living. As we’ve been saying for months, the only thing that matters is the Fed and everything else is viewed through that lens.  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight...

We’ve spent a lot of time in the Weekly Insight discussing the issues here at home with inflation and the markets. But the U.S. is just 24% of the world economy. In our evermore interconnected world, the other 76% is going to have a lot to say about the path of our economy. Last week, that was made clear when the government of new U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss decided to cut taxes in the midst of...

Last week was one of those times when it is simply not fun to be an investor. Stocks, bonds, domestic, international…everything was down. The FOMC meeting left investors convinced rates are going higher – for longer – than expected. And Chairman Powell threatened a “policy induced recession”. So what are investors to do? Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/ the-weekly-insight-hold /

That was a tough inflation report. And it just kicks up the drama for this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.  What will Chairman Powell do? And what does this mean for the future? And when will inflation finally peak? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-wheres-the-peak/ 

The last few months have seen endless airplane analogies for the economy. “Soft landing”, “headwinds”, “turbulence”. But the truth is, our economy doesn’t have the simple choice of a good landing or a fiery crash. It’s always more complicated than that. This week, we look at what we’re hearing from the pilot (Chairman Powell) and how the market is reacting prior to the inflation data tomorrow. Rea...

New housing start data last month showed America is going to build 10% less homes this year than last (thank you, inflation & rising interest rates!). But did you know that even last year we didn’t build enough homes to keep up with new household formations? The U.S. has a 3.8 million unit deficit in housing. Does that mean there may still be some investment opportunities in this space despite...

We promised you last week the lazy days of summer were ending and a more dramatic period on the market was upon us.  Chairman Powell fired the starter pistol with his remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and, well, it’s safe to say the market didn’t love what it heard. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-pain