The Weekly Insight

The biggest news last week wasn’t economic, it was political. The starting gun has been fired on what will be one of the…strangest…Presidential campaigns in recent memory. And the shape of this race between two Presidents is going to impact markets, especially as we get into the summer and early fall.  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-and-so-it-begins/

Another strong week in the market – and a great start to the year – gives us a little room to look further out into the future. And there is one $34 trillion long-term problem that causes us heartburn: the national debt.   Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-its-time-for-a-tough-conversation/

We heard from two of the most prominent voices in finance last week: Chairman Powell (via the FOMC Minutes) and Warren Buffett (via his annual shareholder letter).  It was a very good reminder of why the debates about things like “when will the Fed cut rates” are important – but not in the big picture.  Mr. Buffett’s long history has some valuable insights into how we can be better investors.   Re...

We’ve talked for weeks now about the differences between the Fed’s preferred path on rate cuts and the market’s belief of what they will do. As a refresher, the Fed announced in December they believed they would cut rates three times in 2024. The market had a different view. The consensus at the time was the Fed would start rate cuts in March and would cut a total of seven times in 2024.  Read mor...

Fed Week is behind us and it’s clear we’re going to be waiting on rate cuts for a bit.  Powell quietly admitted we were right last week: the Fed’s key motivation is fear of being wrong.  But somehow the market ended the week up strongly. Why? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-no-cuts-coming/

It’s Fed week again.  And while the reason has changed (when to cut rates vs. how high to raise them), what they say will have an impact on markets. And just like investors, their fears can impact their decision making. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fear-at-the-fed/

Equity markets hit an all-time high on Friday (and are continuing the positive direction this week). If you’re like us, that leads to the question of where is it going next?  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-yul-brynner-record/

Inflation was back in the news last week with the latest CPI data. In this edition of the Weekly Insight Memo and Weekly Insight Podcast, we look at what that report said and what it might mean for the market as we head into the new year. How did it change the “consensus” opinion for what will happen to interest rates? And most importantly, what happens if that consensus is wrong? This may be a to...

Last week was a rough start to the year with the S&P 500 down 1.52%. But what does that mean? Is a bad first week a harbinger of bad things to come? Have there been any significant changes in the expectations for the market or the economy in 2024?   Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-slow-start/

The New Year is an excellent time to take stock of things. How did last year go? What are the concerns and opportunities in the year ahead.   Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-2024-concerns-and-opportunities/

Christmas came early in the stock market last week. Old Saint Jerome and his merry band of elves decided it was time to start handing out presents. And boy did they. The latest report from the Fed has the markets feeling optimistic as we head into the end of the year. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-old-saint-jerome/

Perspective is an important thing. And even the smartest people in the world can fall victim to losing it. Take, for example, the Doomsday Clock. Set by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, it is supposed to provide scientific assessment of how close the world is to Armageddon. And today it’s set the closest we’ve ever been to midnight. We would argue those scientists have lost a bit of perspective....

The end of the year will be here before we know it. Are you ready? In this edition of the Weekly Insight Podcast, we address some of the important year-end planning items you should be thinking about in December. And we also take a look at what just may be the last big hurdle to ending the year on a positive note. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-racing-toward-the-...

If you have a view about the economy, there is a data set that backs it up. Optimistic? Look at earnings and wage growth! Pessimistic? Inflation and Fed policy! But in the end, there are a few really big things that matter. And the biggest of all is the health of the consumer. There is no better snapshot of the consumer than Black Friday. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-i...

Market sentiment is a fickle thing.  And there is no question that we want to be on the right side of that sentiment when things are humming along.  But there’s risk in joining the herd, especially when there is perceived certainty about the outcome.  This week we take a look at where certainty is popping up in the market (Fed policy) and why that should be a reminder to keep our heads on a swivel...

As a firm based in central Iowa, our office is full of people who either love or hate the Iowa Hawkeyes.  But even if you hate them, you have to admit that this football season has been fascinating.  They have one of the worst offenses in history and have already locked in a share of the Big 10 West title.  But what does this have to do with your portfolio?  It turns out there are some important l...

A few weeks ago, we talked about “immutable truths” in the world. Things that no one can argue about. And why – in financial markets – there really isn’t such a thing. We got a great reminder of that one Wednesday. Jerome Powell stepped to the podium after last week’s FOMC meeting and…wait for it…the market went UP! And it kept going up on Thursday and Friday. What in the world? Read more here: ht...

Tonight is Beggars' Night in Des Moines.  It’s a unique Halloween tradition that was caused by a strange (and ineffective) solution to an age-old problem (misbehaving kids!).  It reminds us a bit of the mess happening in Congress right now as we stare down yet another government shutdown in just 17 days.  Are we going to get a spooky result? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-...

There are a lot of things we take for granted in the world.  History, personal experiences, and public perceptions often build rock solid beliefs.  But sometimes, when you look back, you can’t exactly nail down where the belief originated.  That got us thinking about the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.  Why is it 2%? How did that level become the presumed correct amount of inflation?  Who c...

Last week we saw a divergence of confidence. On the world stage, the ongoing battle between Israel and Hamas has caused concern worldwide. On our shores, we started to see earnings for Q3 – notably from the big banks – which fed optimism in equity markets. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-earnings-and-israel/

Imagine for a second we were in the midst of a 45% correction in equities.  Panic would rule the airwaves. Fear selling would dominate the markets. We know because it happened 15 years ago.    But what if we told you that the bond market is down more than 45% from its peak?  That has significant impacts as well – and may create some significant opportunities.  Read more here: https://insightwealth...

It was Fed week again.  We’ve tried hard to talk about other things for the last few weeks, but Chairman Powell, inflation, and interest rates are the elephant in the room.  The market didn’t like the supposed “hawkish pause” on Wednesday.  But we think there might be something a little more dovish in Powell’s comments. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-position-t...

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that there’s a little drama roiling the markets right now.  The UAW strike combined with the possibility of a government shutdown has folks on edge.  But is that attitude justified? What does history tell us? And what might the real market consequences be? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-strikes-and-shutdowns-oh-my/

There has been a lot of talk about China recently, highlighted by their newest move to ban iPhones for Chinese government employees.  But the tale of the relations between the two largest economies of the world has been changing for some time now as our economic fortunes become less and less linked. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-red-dragon/

This week, we look at some very interesting economic data that came out last week including: the impact of Swifties on consumer spending, a slowly normalizing labor market, and the impact hurricanes can have on the economy. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-swifties-unite/