Pacific Polarity

Jersey Lee Welcome to this episode of Pacific Polarity. Today we’re speaking with Dr. Gabriela Bernal. She is a Korean affairs analyst based in Seoul, South Korea, and a non-resident fellow at the European Center for North Korean Studies. She is also an associated research fellow at the Institute for Security and Development Policy. She has a PhD from the University of North Korean Studies and has...

Tom Wright joins Pacific Polarity to discuss the emergence of "two Americas", the consequences of America's political volatility for its allies, and what a future US strategy towards China might look like. Wright argues that allies cannot simply wait for the next administration to restore the old order, but need alliances that are structurally resilient to changes in Washington. He also argues tha...

On the latest episode of Pacific Polarity , Jersey Lee spoke with Australian Senator Dave Sharma about Australia's role in the Indo-Pacific, its relationships with the United States and China, and the Coalition's approach to international development and climate policy. Sharma argues that Australia should support continued American engagement in global conflicts rather than begrudge Washington's a...

Professor Adam Lockyer joins Pacific Polarity to discuss his new book "Conventional Maritime Deterrence" , arguing that deterrence at sea operates fundamentally differently from deterrence on land. He explains how concepts such as sea control, sea denial and "maritime sparring" shape competition in the Indo-Pacific, why Australia needs both offensive and defensive options—including AUKUS—and why e...

The Wall Street Journal’s Jonathan Cheng discusses his forthcoming book Korean Messiah and the deeper ideological foundations of North Korea. Moving beyond conventional analyses, the conversation explores how Kim Il-sung’s Christian upbringing helped shape the regime’s quasi-religious political culture, and how this—alongside hereditary rule—sets it apart from orthodox Marxism. Cheng situates Nort...

Note: This episode was recorded on March 15 Australia time (March 14 US time). On March 16 Australia time (March 15 US time), Trump threatened to delay his upcoming visit to China, if China doesn’t help unblock the Strait of Hormuz. In response to this news, James Zimmerman provided the following additional comment: China is unlikely to respond to the threat, and it’s not in their best interest to...

Rushali Saha explores the uncertain state of U.S.–India relations following the rollback of Trump-era tariffs and the announcement of what she characterizes as more framework than finalized agreement. While strategic alignment between Washington and New Delhi remains strong in principle, implementation has long been uneven. India, she argues, is careful not to flatter Trump, mindful of its self-im...

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William Reinsch dissects Trump’s tariff strategy—framed as revenge, revenue, and reshoring—and its implications for the global trading system. He argues that while the U.S. is the greatest short-term threat to rules-based trade, Trump is unlikely to permanently remake the international order, even as resilience increasingly displaces efficiency as a core trade objective. Reinsch is sceptical of br...

Richard Gray On today’s episode of Pacific Polarity, we’re talking with Dr. Zoe Liu, who’s the is the Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Previously, she held post-doctoral fellowships at the Columbia-Harvard China and the World Program and the Fletcher School at Tufts University. Dr. Liu is the author of “Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of C...

Chris Sidoti unpacks Myanmar’s war through the lenses of battlefield dynamics, China’s shifting calculations, and the enduring vulnerability of the Rohingya. He argues that China’s recent tilt back toward the junta reflects a short-term stabilisation strategy driven by security and economic interests, but one that will likely prove mistaken as the military’s defeat becomes unavoidable. Against a b...

In this episode of Pacific Polarity , Costa Rican economist and former politician Otton Solís Fallas discussed the US capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, the logic of the “Donroe Doctrine,” and the consequences of US–China rivalry for smaller states. Otton argues that Washington’s actions mark a return to a colonial-era “might makes right” approach, with Trump discarding democratic rhetoric in...

Arnaud Bertrand argues that the new US National Security Strategy signals a reluctant American acceptance of a multipolar world and a search for ways to coexist rather than dominate. He contends that China’s worldview is fundamentally non-missionary and oriented toward an integrated global system rather than bloc confrontation, shaped by history and cultural distance from the West. Arnaud suggests...

Cyan Ventures' Shaun Chau discussed Australia’s failed COP bid, the global headwinds facing climate action, and what a pragmatic path forward might look like for the climate camp. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pacificpolarity.substack.com

James Laurenceson of the Australia-China Relations Institute at UTS shares his thoughts on China’s economic headwinds, the US–China trade war, and the state of Australia–China relations. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pacificpolarity.substack.com

Zhao Long of the Shanghai Institute for International Studies shares how China sees its role in a shifting global order. Dr Zhao argues that China can break the historical cycle of great powers seeking spheres of influence, instead advancing a development-driven model for Asia within a multipolar world. He highlights initiatives like the Global Governance Initiative and the SCO Development Bank as...

Sheena Chestnut Greitens discusses how China is extending its internal security model abroad, and what that means for U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific. She explains how Beijing’s campaign-style governance and surveillance technologies are being repurposed as tools of global security influence, raising risks of autocratization, but also potential blowback for China reminiscent of Cold War overreac...

Former Ambassador Andrew Goledzinowski discusses the shifting balance of power in Southeast Asia and what it means for Australia. From the risks of a potential U.S. retrenchment, to the stabilising role of competition between Washington and Beijing, he argues that Australia has few viable strategic alternatives to its alliance with the United States. Drawing on his experience across Southeast Asia...

On this episode of Pacific Polarity , Natalie Sambhi, Executive Director of Verve Research, discussed how Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is caught between protest and power politics, navigating domestic unrest while striving for a place on the world stage. Dr Sambhi explains how Prabowo’s push to be seen at major international fora reflects Indonesia’s ambitions as a Global South power, eve...

Syaza Shukri, Associate Professor at the International Islamic University Malaysia, discusses how Malaysia is navigating deep-rooted ethnic politics at home and shifting geopolitical currents abroad under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. She highlights how Malaysia’s affirmative action policies and mono-ethnic party system continue to shape divisive domestic debates, while on the global stage, suspic...

Jersey Lee spoke with Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen about Australia’s strategic future. Roggeveen, author of The Echidna Strategy , argues for a continental defence posture rather than tying Australia to AUKUS and US forward defence priorities, warning that Washington’s interest in Asian dominance is inconsistent and driven more by prestige than necessity. He sees Australia as the largest Pacific...

Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr. , former IMF executive director and founding VP of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB), discusses why both institutions fall short in serving the Global South. He explains how IMF reforms to boost developing countries’ representation stalled because meaningful change would increase China’s voting share — something the West resists — while the U.S. insists on keeping vet...

Will Glasgow, China correspondent for The Australian, talks about the complexities of reporting from China, the evolving state of China-Australia relations, and more This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pacificpolarity.substack.com

International Crisis Group's William Yang discusses about Taiwan’s increasingly precarious geopolitical position as it faces mounting pressure from China and shifting demands from the US. He unpacks the implications of US “reciprocal tariffs,” stalled trade negotiations, and the cancelled Latin America trip, as well as domestic political tensions heightened by a failed DPP-led recall effort. Willi...

Dr Nguyen Khac Giang discusses how Vietnam’s domestic politics and foreign policy are shaped by intensifying US-China rivalry. He discusses Vietnam’s adaptation of China’s development model, the political impact of its anti-corruption drive, and the country’s deep reliance on trade as both strength and vulnerability. Dr Nguyen explains how Vietnam balances ties with China (a regime and economic pa...