The Strength In Numbers Podcast with G. Elliott Morris

In this week’s live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott flies solo (David’s on vacation — he’ll be back next week) for a special “chart-a-rama” episode breaking down the “rally around the flag” effect in presidential approval polls, and why Trump isn’t getting one. Elliott also covers a bad use of polling in a Washington Post article about the GOP’s midterm prospects. Here are th...

In this week's live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, talked Iran war polling, the chaos of the Texas Senate primaries, and Trump's cratering approval numbers — including a record we really didn't expect to hit this early. Here are the big takeaways: * The Iran war is historically unpopular — and it’s only going to get worse...

In the newest live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, talk about the Texas Senate primaries, what the latest Strength in Numbers /Verasight poll says about Trump’s approval, and where the public stands on various proposed structural reforms to the Supreme Court, presidency, and U.S. Senate. We cover: * The Texas Senate primaries are wi...

In the newest live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, talk about the latest news in elections, politics, and polling. We cover: * “Anti-system” voters explain Trump’s wins better than left-right ideology. A recent study of polling data from the American National Election Study shows frustration with government and elites predicted whet...

In this latest episode of the Strength In Numbers live podcast, Elliott and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot , talk about the latest news in elections, politics, and polling. We cover: * Trump is losing the voters who elected him. New Strength In Numbers /Verasight data shows low-information voters — about 27% of the electorate — have swung from Trump +11 in 2024 to disapproval by 13 points....

In this latest episode of the Strength In Numbers live podcast, Elliott and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot , have a wide-ranging discussion of the 2026 political environment. We talk about: * A Democratic shockwave in Texas. Democrats flipped a Texas State Senate seat in a district that Trump won by 17 points in 2024. We explain why turnout alone can’t account for the massive swing. * Is T...

(This note is from Elliott). Thanks to my friend Michael Podhorzer of the Weekend Reading Substack for having me on his show to talk about politics and electoral strategy ahead of 2026. We cover: * Taylor Rehmet’s massive upset win in Texas’s 9th Senate District last Saturday * How views about immigration have changed since January 2025 * Where the “median voter theorem” falls short Plus: What ind...

In this conversation, Elliott is joined by David Nir, publisher of The Downballot , to take stock of Donald Trump’s polling numbers as he passes one year in office. We dig into the fresh January Strength In Numbers/ Verasight polling data, talk about Elliott’s new project mapping public opinion at the local level, check in on Democratic strategy regarding immigration and immigration enforcement, a...

Happy Saturday, readers, I was delighted to sit down again with Paul Krugman this past Thursday to talk through the 2025 elections and what the results actually tell us. We cover the toplines — Democrats over-performed across Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and elsewhere — and then dig into the nitty gritty of which groups swung the most, and what it all means for 2026. Here are a few...

Readers Ryan Lizza, the independent journalist formerly of CNN and POLITICO, asked me to do an interview with him on Friday about my new column on the outcome of Tuesday’s elections. In this conversation I make several bold claims, such as: * Trump is unpopular and that’s why Republicans lost on Tuesday * If Trump continues to be unpopular, Republicans will struggle in the 2026 midterms * Realignm...

State of play + recent events Two weeks ago, if you had asked me who was going to win the elections in Virginia this November, I would have confidently said Democrats are likely to sweep races for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, and expand their majority in the House of Delegates. The state usually votes against the party of the president, and Democrats are up big in the polls. Ea...

I joined my friend and ex-538’er Perry Bacon Jr and Amanda Litman, the founder of Run For Something, for a conversation on politics in 2025 and what the Democrats need to do to rebuild the party post-Trump. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe

Here’s a quick Friday afternoon post. Ryan Lizza (and his cute new puppy) interviewed me today about our new Strength In Numbers poll this week — and about all the other great work the community here is both supporting and, increasingly, participating in. We talk about Trump, the LA and No Kings Day protests, immigration, Democratic strategy, polling in the age of AI, and more. Have a happy weeken...

Dear readers, In case you missed it, Mike Podhorzer and I did a video conversation together on June 2. We talked about: * My new piece on Trump’s popularity * How the media uses polling * Why it pays to approach public opinion with nuance and uncertainty * Why traditional ad-supported media is not set up to incentivize factual discourse when it conflicts with values of partisan fairness; * and mor...

I was very kindly joined by David Nir of The Downballot on Tuesday to talk about the (successful, IMO!) launch of Strength In Numbers this week, and give a sneak peek at our first poll publishing tomorrow (Wednesday, May 14). The first few minutes will be familiar to readers because we are giving a wider audience on the Substack App the low-down on what we do here at Strength In Numbers. But the r...

This is just a quick post to draw your attention to two things: First, I’ve just uploaded an initial release of my index of economic growth to the Strength In Numbers data portal . Trump’s approval rating — now at net -6 — is also updated there. I plan to make revisions to the model powering the economic index, which I’ve released publicly online , and to very soon incorporate it into a Cost Of Ru...