The Strength In Numbers Podcast with G. Elliott Morris

Strength In Numbers is on a short summer break while Elliott takes paternity leave with his new baby. This deep dive episode was recorded in early May, and things may have changed since we recorded it. In this Deep Dive episode of the Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott sits down with Seth Masket , political scientist at the University of Denver and author of the Smotus Report Substack, to swap i...

On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast — the last live episode before Elliott heads off on paternity leave — Elliott and David break down just how historically unpopular Donald Trump has become and dig into the surging public appetite for age limits on members of Congress, the presidency, and the Supreme Court. Here are the big takeaways: * Nobody likes Trump, and gas prices are only part of t...

In this Deep Dive episode of the Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott sits down with Lee Drutman, senior fellow at the New America Foundation and author of Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop: The Case for Multiparty Representation in America , to talk about whether the way out of America’s escalating gerrymandering war isn’t legislation for fairer maps or redistricting commissions, but maybe doing a...

On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David briefly revisit Elliott’s hypotheses on why economic vibes are still so sour before turning to the alarming speed at which Republican-led states are moving to redraw their congressional maps in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Callais decision last week. Here are the big takeaways: * The economic vibes may not be “normal” again until 202...

On this week's Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David unpack the Supreme Court's decision in Louisiana v. Callais and explain what it means for the midterms and beyond. Then Elliott pushes back on a trendy take that Democrats' "only" 7–8 point generic ballot lead, despite Trump's –22 net approval, proves the party is fundamentally misaligned with voters on cultural issues. Here are the big...

In this week’s first-ever live, in-person recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast — at the America Votes State Summit in Washington, D.C. — G. Elliott Morris and David Nir debut exclusive new polling on the midterms, dig into what voters actually dislike about the Democratic Party, and explain why none of this changes the trajectory of a brutal midterm for Republicans (even though it could ma...

We have some very exciting news: Next week, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir will record the Strength In Numbers podcast live and in-person in Washington, DC—and we’d love it if you’d join us! Our session will take place on Thursday, April 23, at 11:15 AM at the America Votes Summit, which is being held at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center (the address and directions can be found here ). E...

In this week’s live recording of the Strength in Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir cover the latest on the Iran ceasefire, Tuesday’s elections in Wisconsin, and Elliott’s new statistical model estimating Trump’s approval rating in every congressional district and state in the country. Here are the big takeaways: * Wisconsin was a wipeout, and the swing was especially large in rural...

In this first special deep dive episode of the Strength in Numbers podcast, Elliott sits down with Joy Wilke, senior director of polling at BlueLabs, to discuss a set of focus groups she conducted in Michigan among independent, politically disengaged Americans — the exact kind of affordability voters who swung toward Trump in 2024, and who Elliott has been writing about over the last year. BlueLab...

In this week’s live recording of the Strength in Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, dig into a news-packed week — from the Supreme Court’s oral arguments in the birthright citizenship case and Donald Trump’s televised address about the war in Iran on Wednesday to the firing of Attorney General Pam Bondi and the first anniversary of Trump’s “Liberation Da...

In this week’s live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, talk about prediction markets and AI “polls” — the new hot crazes in political and election reporting. Elliott and David take a look at the accuracy of each source and compare them against traditional polls. Here are the big takeaways: * Prediction markets have real struc...

In this week’s live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot (and back from a week off!), talk about new polling showing Trump holding his MAGA base on the war in Iran—but losing ground overall. Trump’s support has badly decayed among soft partisans, lower-income whites, and Hispanic voters — the groups that swung most sharply towar...

In this week’s live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott flies solo (David’s on vacation — he’ll be back next week) for a special “chart-a-rama” episode breaking down the “rally around the flag” effect in presidential approval polls, and why Trump isn’t getting one. Elliott also covers a bad use of polling in a Washington Post article about the GOP’s midterm prospects. Here are th...

In this week's live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, talked Iran war polling, the chaos of the Texas Senate primaries, and Trump's cratering approval numbers — including a record we really didn't expect to hit this early. Here are the big takeaways: * The Iran war is historically unpopular — and it’s only going to get worse...

In the newest live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, talk about the Texas Senate primaries, what the latest Strength in Numbers /Verasight poll says about Trump’s approval, and where the public stands on various proposed structural reforms to the Supreme Court, presidency, and U.S. Senate. We cover: * The Texas Senate primaries are wi...

In the newest live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, talk about the latest news in elections, politics, and polling. We cover: * “Anti-system” voters explain Trump’s wins better than left-right ideology. A recent study of polling data from the American National Election Study shows frustration with government and elites predicted whet...

In this latest episode of the Strength In Numbers live podcast, Elliott and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot , talk about the latest news in elections, politics, and polling. We cover: * Trump is losing the voters who elected him. New Strength In Numbers /Verasight data shows low-information voters — about 27% of the electorate — have swung from Trump +11 in 2024 to disapproval by 13 points....

In this latest episode of the Strength In Numbers live podcast, Elliott and David Nir, publisher of The Downballot , have a wide-ranging discussion of the 2026 political environment. We talk about: * A Democratic shockwave in Texas. Democrats flipped a Texas State Senate seat in a district that Trump won by 17 points in 2024. We explain why turnout alone can’t account for the massive swing. * Is T...

(This note is from Elliott). Thanks to my friend Michael Podhorzer of the Weekend Reading Substack for having me on his show to talk about politics and electoral strategy ahead of 2026. We cover: * Taylor Rehmet’s massive upset win in Texas’s 9th Senate District last Saturday * How views about immigration have changed since January 2025 * Where the “median voter theorem” falls short Plus: What ind...

In this conversation, Elliott is joined by David Nir, publisher of The Downballot , to take stock of Donald Trump’s polling numbers as he passes one year in office. We dig into the fresh January Strength In Numbers/ Verasight polling data, talk about Elliott’s new project mapping public opinion at the local level, check in on Democratic strategy regarding immigration and immigration enforcement, a...

Happy Saturday, readers, I was delighted to sit down again with Paul Krugman this past Thursday to talk through the 2025 elections and what the results actually tell us. We cover the toplines — Democrats over-performed across Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and elsewhere — and then dig into the nitty gritty of which groups swung the most, and what it all means for 2026. Here are a few...

Readers Ryan Lizza, the independent journalist formerly of CNN and POLITICO, asked me to do an interview with him on Friday about my new column on the outcome of Tuesday’s elections. In this conversation I make several bold claims, such as: * Trump is unpopular and that’s why Republicans lost on Tuesday * If Trump continues to be unpopular, Republicans will struggle in the 2026 midterms * Realignm...

State of play + recent events Two weeks ago, if you had asked me who was going to win the elections in Virginia this November, I would have confidently said Democrats are likely to sweep races for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, and expand their majority in the House of Delegates. The state usually votes against the party of the president, and Democrats are up big in the polls. Ea...

I joined my friend and ex-538’er Perry Bacon Jr and Amanda Litman, the founder of Run For Something, for a conversation on politics in 2025 and what the Democrats need to do to rebuild the party post-Trump. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe

Here’s a quick Friday afternoon post. Ryan Lizza (and his cute new puppy) interviewed me today about our new Strength In Numbers poll this week — and about all the other great work the community here is both supporting and, increasingly, participating in. We talk about Trump, the LA and No Kings Day protests, immigration, Democratic strategy, polling in the age of AI, and more. Have a happy weeken...