The Spillover

Live from Washington, DC, this episode unpacks how war, AI, financial innovation, and global institutions are reshaping monetary policy, market stability, and the future of the international economic order.    Host:   Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations   Guest:   William C. Dudley , Chair, Bretton Woods Committee; Former President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of New Y...

This episode unpacks cohost Sebastian Mallaby’s new book The Infinity Machine and answers audience questions on AI, dollar dominance, the impact of Trump’s foreign policy on midterm elections, and more.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)...

This episode dives into how the opaque growth and structural risks in private credit, combined with global supply shocks and market stress spurred by the Iran war, are creating a uniquely fragile and unpredictable economic landscape.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Coun...

This episode unpacks the evolving U.S.-China AI rivalry, the limits of technological export controls, and what’s really at stake as both countries race to shape the future of intelligence.   Submit Your Question For a Chance to Win a Copy of Sebastian Mallaby’s Book The Infinity Machine!    Host:   Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Re...

As the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran escalates, global markets are absorbing the shocks: oil prices are swinging, inflation expectations are rising, and safe-haven assumptions are being tested. China, by contrast, is looking relatively resilient, buoyed by strategic energy reserves, diversified supply chains, and policy flexibility. This episode examines how the conflict is driving inflation, com...

On the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, this episode revisits a book that laid the foundations of modern economics and then considers the tensions between free markets and industrial policy today. It highlights the ways in which specialization and global trade remain powerful drivers of prosperity, reflecting Smith’s insight that self-interest can benefit society when shape...

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran are disrupting energy markets. Iran’s production capacity has been hit, the Strait of Hormuz has essentially been closed, and Iran’s energy-producing neighbors have been dragged into the conflict. This episode looks at the spillovers from the resulting energy price shock and explores how structural shifts, including a surge in U.S. oil production, China’s emergence...

Is there an AI bubble, or just an OpenAI bubble? Markets remain focused on whether valuations can be justified by sufficiently fast revenue growth, while the real economy braces for AI’s impact on productivity, jobs, and other disruptions. With global leaders and tech CEOs convening in India to debate AI governance, the stakes are rising fast. Credit markets, hiring data, and business sentiment co...

In a 6-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the government’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), holding that the statute does not authorize a president to impose sweeping tariffs. In this breaking news episode, host Rebecca Patterson is joined by Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former U.S. trade representative, to unpack th...

European leaders are at an inflection point. After high-level meetings in Munich and Brussels, they must decide what role Europe will play in the unfolding new world order, politically and economically. Can China, India, and Brazil provide lessons on how to navigate the U.S. trade war? Can a “multi-speed” Europe with less and simpler regulation become a reality? As the world’s second-largest econo...

This episode examines the “Fragile Four” economies—the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and France—and why politics is increasingly spilling into financial markets. After a long stretch where markets largely shrugged off political volatility, an “age of inflation” coupled with high debt, aging demographics, rising defense spending, and anxious populations across the Fragile Four are makin...

How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economics, technology, and finance. This podcast helps you better understand what’s happening, and why it matters to businesses, the markets, and the world.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior...