The Spillover

Cohosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby stage a friendly debate over two so-called dollar alternatives—gold and bitcoin—weighing whether either has truly earned its reputation as a store of value. Patterson defends gold’s centuries of institutional credibility and diversification track record, while Mallaby makes the bull case for bitcoin’s finite supply and upside potential.   Hosts:   Re...

America’s 250th birthday is the talk of the nation. But the more important story might be what the milestone reveals about the fragile bargain between democracy and markets, and whether the republic can survive its own cultural divisions.   Host:   Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Martin Wolf , Chief Econom...

In this episode of The Spillover, host Rebecca Patterson and former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Roger W. Ferguson Jr. reflect on the legacy of recently deceased former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, and examine what may lie ahead for the Fed under its new chair Kevin Warsh.   Hosts:   Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Roger W. Ferguson Jr. , Steven A. Tanan...

In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby and CFR President Michael Froman speak with former U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and World Bank President Ajay Banga about the global jobs challenge facing millions of young people in emerging markets.    Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Micha...

The scale of the SpaceX IPO is dominating financial headlines, but the more important story might be what the sale reveals about the structure of modern capital markets, corporate governance, and the blurry line between public and private investing. This episode unpacks what the numbers actually show, why much of the popular narrative is overblown, and what investors should actually be paying atte...

This episode unpacks why the trade and investment imbalances between the United States and China have grown to record levels despite years of pressure to correct them, and how the imbalanced system looks increasingly likely to collapse under its own weight.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patters...

As governments around the world ramp up defense spending, a new era of rearmament is reshaping economies, markets, inflation, and politics. This episode examines Japan’s dramatic shift away from its postwar pacifist identity amid rising tensions with China, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and growing uncertainty around the global security role of the U.S.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby , Paul...

AI and satellite imagery are quickly converging to create “planetary intelligence,” a new generation of systems capable of capturing and analyzing images of Earth in real time. This episode explores how the AI infrastructure race could move into orbit, with space-based data centers, falling launch costs, and “large Earth models” potentially transforming the global economy, geopolitics, and the fut...

President Donald Trump is set to meet with Xi Jinping in Beijing for a high-stakes summit shaped by Iran war tensions, trade disputes, critical mineral flows, semiconductor controls, and an intensifying AI race. This episode breaks down the growing U.S.-China rivalry, the risks facing global markets and supply chains, and whether the world is entering a new era of economic fragmentation and techno...

Prediction markets have grown into a multibillion-dollar industry. This episode asks whether they are powerful forecasting tools or gambling platforms in disguise—and what their rise means for how risk and information are priced.   Hosts:   Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council...

This episode unpacks the concept of a K-shaped economy, examines how AI, war, and climate shocks may be widening inequality within and between countries, and explains why the divide is so hard to measure. It also explores competing responses to the affordability crisis—from Trump’s to Mamdani’s—and asks if a more centrist path could offer better solutions.   Hosts:   Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fel...

This episode explores how the Gulf region transformed into a global “capital of capital,” and the risk of the Iran conflict disrupting that role. It examines the ripple effects on global markets, U.S. tech and AI investment, and the broader balance of economic power if Gulf capital starts turning inward to focus on defense.   Hosts:   Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, CFR   Sebastian Mallaby , Pa...

Live from Washington, DC, this episode unpacks how war, AI, financial innovation, and global institutions are reshaping monetary policy, market stability, and the future of the international economic order.    Host:   Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations   Guest:   William C. Dudley , Chair, Bretton Woods Committee; Former President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of New Y...

This episode unpacks cohost Sebastian Mallaby’s new book The Infinity Machine and answers audience questions on AI, dollar dominance, the impact of Trump’s foreign policy on midterm elections, and more.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)...

This episode dives into how the opaque growth and structural risks in private credit, combined with global supply shocks and market stress spurred by the Iran war, are creating a uniquely fragile and unpredictable economic landscape.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Coun...

This episode unpacks the evolving U.S.-China AI rivalry, the limits of technological export controls, and what’s really at stake as both countries race to shape the future of intelligence.   Submit Your Question For a Chance to Win a Copy of Sebastian Mallaby’s Book The Infinity Machine!    Host:   Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Re...

As the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran escalates, global markets are absorbing the shocks: oil prices are swinging, inflation expectations are rising, and safe-haven assumptions are being tested. China, by contrast, is looking relatively resilient, buoyed by strategic energy reserves, diversified supply chains, and policy flexibility. This episode examines how the conflict is driving inflation, com...

On the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, this episode revisits a book that laid the foundations of modern economics and then considers the tensions between free markets and industrial policy today. It highlights the ways in which specialization and global trade remain powerful drivers of prosperity, reflecting Smith’s insight that self-interest can benefit society when shape...

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran are disrupting energy markets. Iran’s production capacity has been hit, the Strait of Hormuz has essentially been closed, and Iran’s energy-producing neighbors have been dragged into the conflict. This episode looks at the spillovers from the resulting energy price shock and explores how structural shifts, including a surge in U.S. oil production, China’s emergence...

Is there an AI bubble, or just an OpenAI bubble? Markets remain focused on whether valuations can be justified by sufficiently fast revenue growth, while the real economy braces for AI’s impact on productivity, jobs, and other disruptions. With global leaders and tech CEOs convening in India to debate AI governance, the stakes are rising fast. Credit markets, hiring data, and business sentiment co...

In a 6-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the government’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), holding that the statute does not authorize a president to impose sweeping tariffs. In this breaking news episode, host Rebecca Patterson is joined by Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former U.S. trade representative, to unpack th...

European leaders are at an inflection point. After high-level meetings in Munich and Brussels, they must decide what role Europe will play in the unfolding new world order, politically and economically. Can China, India, and Brazil provide lessons on how to navigate the U.S. trade war? Can a “multi-speed” Europe with less and simpler regulation become a reality? As the world’s second-largest econo...

This episode examines the “Fragile Four” economies—the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and France—and why politics is increasingly spilling into financial markets. After a long stretch where markets largely shrugged off political volatility, an “age of inflation” coupled with high debt, aging demographics, rising defense spending, and anxious populations across the Fragile Four are makin...

How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economics, technology, and finance. This podcast helps you better understand what’s happening, and why it matters to businesses, the markets, and the world.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior...