Excess Returns

Ted Mortonson of Baird explains why conviction in the AI boom doesn't mean buying every dip in tech stocks. He joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to explain what experienced technology investors watch before putting money back to work—and why he still sees AI as the most powerful technology cycle of his career. The discussion moves from lessons of the dot-com bust to the companies Ted belie...

Brian Portnoy of Shaping Wealth explores why experienced investors build very different portfolios—and what that means for your own money. In How I Invest My Money Volume Two, 25 new contributors explain how they invest their personal wealth. Brian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss what those stories reveal about the gap between an optimal portfolio on paper and one you can actually live with. From la...

Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and chairman of Syzygy Asset Management, examines S&P 500 concentration and who could benefit most from AI. Owning today’s market leaders is not necessarily the same as owning tomorrow’s biggest investment winners. Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe on Apple In this episode of The Intangible Economy, Rob joins Kai Wu to explore how index construct...

Paisley Nardini of Tema ETFs explores AI investing, S&P 500 concentration, and how to build a portfolio around changing market risks. How can investors participate in powerful growth trends without making every holding a bet on the same outcome? In this episode of Excess Returns, Paisley joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss the risks beneath a resilient stock market, why tomorr...

Colin McQueen of T. Rowe Price explains what is changing for international value stocks and how he separates cheap businesses from opportunities that can improve. Higher interest rates, industrial investment, and corporate reform are reshaping the opportunity set, but his process still starts with free cash flow and the price investors pay for it. Colin joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to...

Jim Paulsen sees a risk of a stock market correction as financial conditions tighten and investors grow comfortable with tech's long run of leadership. But his warning does not require a recession or the end of the bull market. In this month's Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to walk through the charts behind his cautious outlook. He explains how rising yield...

Barry Ritholtz, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler explore why AI's real productivity gains don't automatically translate into an investing edge. From stock picking and market concentration to the financing behind the AI buildout, they separate enthusiasm for the technology from the economics of owning it. Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts In this episode...

Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom explore the tension between holding great businesses and keeping a winning stock from becoming too much portfolio risk. Why do two investors who believe in letting winners compound also use 10% position limits? On this episode of 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Davis of Davis Funds and Robert Hagstrom of EquityCompass join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to discuss pos...

Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies explains why the S&P 500 can reach record highs while many individual stocks struggle. She sees the bull market as intact, but weaker participation raises an important question for diversified investors: is the pullback creating opportunity, or signaling a more lasting change? In this episode of Excess Returns, Katie Stockton joins Matt Zeigler and Justin...

Tom Maher of Hilton Capital Management explains what is changing for small-cap stocks as earnings improve and AI spending reaches beyond big tech. After years of justified large-cap leadership, he sees reasons to revisit smaller companies while remaining selective about business quality, financing needs and valuation. In this episode of Excess Returns, we explore the physical infrastructure behind...

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research explains why he still sees the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2029, even as higher oil prices and bond yields make him more cautious near term. His destination hasn't changed, but the timetable has: he has pushed his 8,400 target to mid-2027 while retaining his Roaring 2020s outlook. In this conversation with Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand, Ed distinguishes an e...

Andy Constan, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman examine rising bond yields, options positioning and the inflation risks facing stocks. What happens if the rate relief traders are betting on never arrives? On this month's Last Call, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler connect three perspectives on the market. Andy Constan explains why stronger growth and debt supply can push yields higher without signa...

Michael Baron of Baron Capital explains his case for AI beneficiaries beyond the biggest tech stocks, including software companies the market fears will be disrupted. He joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to discuss how competitive advantages, management quality, and a long investment horizon shape the firm's growth portfolios. Baron Capital's co-president and portfolio manager walks through...

How much of your portfolio does a good investment idea deserve? Kris Abdelmessih of Moontower joins Matt Zeigler to explain why having an edge is only part of the decision: position size can determine whether favorable odds translate into long-term growth or damaging losses. Through a coin-flipping experiment and everyday examples, Kris makes the Kelly Criterion accessible without a complicated de...

What are headline jobs and inflation numbers missing about the economy investors actually face? Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to examine how a changing workforce, rising fuel costs, and differences in household spending could affect inflation, consumer demand, and corporate margins. Using interactive data tools, Eric looks beneath monthly payroll reports, maps changes in Ame...

Jack Raines turned $6,000 into roughly $400,000 trading SPACs, then lost $157,000 in three minutes after taking a very different bet. The author of Young Money joins Matt Zeigler to discuss what that experience taught him about investing risk, the urge to chase more, and the time a growing portfolio can cost you. The conversation follows Jack Raines from SPAC warrants and market narratives to a br...

Jason Hsu, founder and CIO of Rayliant Global Advisors and co-founder of Research Affiliates, joins Excess Returns to discuss the US-China AI race, the economics of AI spending, and what market concentration means for investors. We explore China's energy and open source advantages, opportunities in Chinese stocks, and how factor investing and machine learning can help build more diversified portfo...

David Rosenberg returns to Excess Returns to explain his bullish case for Treasury bonds, why he expects inflation and economic growth to slow, and the risks he sees in an AI-driven stock market. The Rosenberg Research founder joins Matt Zeigler to discuss consumer spending, Federal Reserve policy, gold, international stocks, and how he translates his economic outlook into a diversified portfolio....

Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson joins Matt Zeigler to explore how AI, blockchain tokenization, and private markets are reshaping investing and asset management. They discuss what these changes mean for individual investors, from personalized portfolios and access to private companies to the concentration risks hiding in passive index funds. Jenny also shares lessons from her journey from inte...

Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler on the latest Jim Paulsen Show to explore why booming AI earnings may be masking a weakening U.S. economy, and what that means for stocks, bonds, and Federal Reserve policy. Using 27 charts, he examines stalled job creation, rising oil prices, growing reliance on debt to finance AI investment, and why he expects a sharper correction in technology th...

Former Fidelity president and MFS chairman Bob Pozen joins Excess Returns to discuss retirement investing, the risks in private credit, and why he favors a 90% stock and 10% cash portfolio for investors who can cover their living expenses without selling stocks. Drawing on decades in asset management, he shares lessons from Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett, explains why index funds are difficult to...

John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos of Janus Henderson join Matt Zeigler to explain why persistent inflation and higher interest rates call for a different approach to bond investing. They explore short-duration bonds, AAA CLOs, mortgage-backed securities and how investors can rethink the fixed income allocation in a 60/40 portfolio. The conversation covers why traditional bond benchmarks may d...

Jared Dillian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss The Awesome Portfolio, his approach to asset allocation built around 20% each in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate. They explore how diversification, annual rebalancing, and managing volatility can help investors reduce financial stress and build a portfolio they can stick with through bear markets. Jared explains his "life hedge" concept, chall...

Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler on Click Beta to explore how sports betting, leveraged ETFs and speculative behavior are blurring the line between gambling and investing. They also examine AI circular financing, hyperscaler cash flow and corporate disclosure, asking what investors might be missing beneath headline earnings. The conversation closes with baseball, music fandom and th...

Dan Niles joins Excess Returns to explain why he believes AI is a genuine industrial revolution and a bubble at the same time, with significant opportunity still ahead but growing risks in semiconductors, software, AI CapEx and credit markets. We discuss NVIDIA, OpenAI, Anthropic, China’s semiconductor push, data center politics, AI debt issuance, Fed policy and the downside protection framework D...