Derisky Business

China expert Logan Wright joins Emily and Geoff to talk about China’s broken economy. He explains why the country isn’t going back to high growth rates anytime soon, and what the structural issues driving China’s broken economy mean for U.S. economic and strategic interests. Logan’s new book is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand the U.S.-China relationship - how we got to where we are...

Energy expert Francisco Monaldi joins Emily and Geoff to discuss the U.S. government’s unusual oil deal in Venezuela. They get into the decades of missteps and corruption that have hampered Venezuela’s oil sector, the deep seated institutional changes that would be needed to bring production back to historical levels, and why you probably shouldn’t assume the contract the U.S. government just sign...

James Crabtree joins the podcast to discuss the new CNAS report he co-authored with Emily, Whither the Coalition? Assessing the Prospects of a Diverse Sanctions Coalition in Defense of Taiwan. Geoff, Emily, and James discuss the prospects of India, Singapore, and Germany joining the United States in a possible future Taiwan contingency scenario, including the political and economic constraints eac...

Paul Haenle and Terah Lyons of JPMorganChase join Emily and Geoff to talk about their recent report on U.S.-China AI competition and what policymakers miss when they only look at the latest AI model benchmarks. They get into the latest uproar over (yet another) capable Chinese AI model, what U.S. industrial policy for AI should look like, and how capital can be allocated amidst rapid technological...

Emily and Geoff talk about the future of the North American trade relationship with Meredith Lilly and Jorge Guajardo. They get into what’s next for USMCA negotiations, why Canada and Mexico would support a Fortress USMCA approach to strengthening economic security alignment across the continent, and the big questions over what exactly the U.S. wants out of the USMCA talks. Plus, what happens if t...

Josh Kretman, former sanctions official, joins Emily to discuss whether there is a Trump doctrine on sanctions and what that might look like. They take a tour around the world’s sanctions hot spots, unpacking the latest developments on the Venezuela, Iran, and Russia sanctions programs and debating whether the U.S. can effectively wield geoeconomic power when China too often plays the role of a sa...

Josh Kagan joins Emily and Geoff to give the big picture behind recent U.S. tariffs related to forced labor, as well as providing an insider’s view on the future of trade and labor issues. In an area that is often a blind spot for the U.S. national security community, Josh helps explain why labor issues have become central to the U.S. approach on trade. Josh Kagan is Special Counsel at Kelley Drye...

Emily and Geoff sit down with Tobias Gehrke to talk about why Europe is facing a looming trade war with China and how prepared (or not) it is to handle trade wars on multiple fronts. They also get Tobias’s take on how things are faring in the Transatlantic relationship, Europe’s pragmatic strategy for dealing with U.S. tariffs, and whether Europe can just wait out the Trump administration. Tobias...

In a live conversation at CNAS, Emily unpacks a new CNAS report exploring how the private sector can advance economic security cooperation between the U.S. and South Korea. She's joined by Tami Overby, Partner at DGA; James Kim, Director of the Stimson Center's Korea Program; and Eleanor Hume, Research Assistant in the CNAS Energy, Economics, and Security Program and co-author of the report. Show...

Sara Schuman joins Emily to debrief on the Trump-Xi summit. She explains why it's OK to have a summit that is light on deliverables, describes how China is viewing its relative strength in the relationship, and outlines what she's looking for in the year ahead. Sara recently joined CNAS as an adjunct senior fellow, after a long career working on China trade issues for the U.S. government. She is a...

Earlier this week, Emily hosted Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Investment Security Chris Pilkerton for a live discussion at CNAS. Investment security has emerged as a central pillar of U.S. national security and foreign policy, with expanding sets of U.S. and partner government policies addressing the national security implications of certain investment flows. The discussion will explore...

Emily is joined by Rachel Ziemba, CNAS adjunct senior fellow and energy markets expert, to unpack the ongoing energy crisis resulting from the U.S.-Iran military conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. They delve into why stabilizing oil prices will be easier said than done and what the current crisis has demonstrated about the effectiveness of U.S. economic pressure. Emily Kilcrease, Hi...

A year ago, the Trump administration unveiled an ambitious plan to reset the global trading system on a day President Donald Trump dubbed “Liberation Day,” overturning decades of precedent and ushering in a new era of a far more assertive U.S. trade policy. While the long-term effects of the administration’s trade strategy remain uncertain, one year of the new trade approach has fundamentally shif...

María Pagán joins Emily and Geoff for a wide-ranging discussion on the past, present, and future of U.S. trade law and policy. They assess what’s working (and what’s not) at the WTO, the path forward for the Trump administration’s tariff strategy, and what to expect at this week’s WTO ministerial conference. María Pagán was most recently Deputy U.S. Trade Representative and Chief of Mission for th...

Paul Scharre joins Emily and Geoff to talk about how commercial markets for AI might evolve and how different market outcomes may mean different types of risks for U.S. national security interests. They also get into the ongoing dispute between the Pentagon and Anthropic over who gets to decide how AI is used in the military. Paul Scharre is an expert on military AI, Executive Vice President at CN...

In a blow to the Trump administration's trade policy, the Supreme Court ruled that the president cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a legal basis to impose tariffs. The Trump administration has relied on IEEPA tariffs as a tool of both economic and diplomatic coercion, seeking to reshape the global trading system and generate revenue for the United States. The fu...

This week, we're bringing you an episode from our friends at CSIS's Asia Chessboard Podcast, where Emily joins host Mike Green to unpack how U.S. national security strategy is shaping technology competition with China. They explore why Washington has rolled back certain tariffs and technology export restrictions, how allies and partners are responding to shifting U.S. trade policies, and whether t...

Geoff sits down with Mark DiPlacido of American Compass to discuss his recent series of essays, On Balance, that advocates U.S. trade policy should move away from the previous free trade paradigm and instead prioritize balance and reciprocity. They consider the extent to which the Trump administration’s trade policy is aligned with this framework and discuss what to watch for on the big trade stor...

Geoff sits down with Chris Kennedy to unpack the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy and debate what it will take for the United States to overcome its dependency on Chinese rare earths. Chris is a Senior Economist with Bloomberg Economics’ Geoeconomics practice and a new Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Energy, Economics and Security Program. Dean Acheson,  Present at the Creation: My...

Tom Wright joins to talk about his recent article, “What if 'America First' Appears to Work?" about the Trump administration’s “might makes right” approach to foreign policy, and whether this strategy is more politically viable than perhaps it should be, at least in the short term. Tom is senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former senior director of strategic planning at the NSC under t...

In a bonus episode this week, we're sharing an episode of the great Geoeconomic Competition podcast hosted by Francesca Ghiretti, director of the RAND Europe China Initiative and a research leader at RAND Europe. Geoff was a recent guest on the podcast to discuss Trump's tariffs and the future of US trade policy. Listen to the Geoeconomic Competition podcast here. Derisky Business is off next week...

Kathleen Claussen, Professor of Law at Georgetown University, joins Emily and Geoff to discuss the SCOTUS case on Trump's tariffs. They share their insights from the recent SCOTUS hearing, explore possible outcomes of the case, and lay out how the Trump administration will likely respond if some or all of the tariffs are struck down. Plus, Kathleen shares why she's not placing any Polymarket bets...

Derisky Business is returning for season 2! After a brief hiatus in which obviously nothing (nothing!) notable happened in the world of trade and economic security, Emily and Geoff are back to dive into all your favorite economic security topics. In their first episode back, they are joined by Peter Harrell, the host of the "Security Economics" podcast, to discuss the concept of economic security...

We interrupt our summer break to provide quick reactions to news this week that the Trump administration will begin allowing Nvidia and AMD to sell certain advanced semiconductors to China - so long as those companies agree to pay a commission fee to the U.S. government. While Emily is on vacation, Geoff is joined by CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow and Managing Director of Garnaut Global Liza Tobin to...

Emily and Geoff break their summer hiatus to launch a new CNAS report detailing insights from a trade wargame that examined how foreign governments might respond to a dramatic increase in U.S. tariffs. For this live event they are joined by trade experts Wendy Cutler, Meredith Lilly, and Thorsten Benner to discuss the report and catch up on the real-world trade wars. Derisky Business will return t...