Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist

The Fed adopts an easing bias: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 12.07.2019 6:54 ↓

The data has changed since May, they say...

Too early for the Fed to cut: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 10.07.2019 7:30 ↓

The Fed needs to slow the economy to a long term sustainable growth rate, before it can cut rates.

How many more cuts for the RBA?: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 05.07.2019 4:33 ↓

The RBA still needs two more rate cuts to support household consumption and lift inflation towards the RBA target.

OK, the US economy is slowing, but will the Fed cut?: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 28.06.2019 7:58 ↓

US growth should slow from 3.1% annualised in Q1 2019 to 2.0% in Q2 2019, but with unemployment around 3%, inflation must soon arrive. We think the Fed will leave rates unchanged.

After the RBA cuts rates to 75 basis points, what then? Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 21.06.2019 4:57 ↓

Rate cuts must be followed by structural reform.

Why the Australian economy is better than how the GDP makes it look: Michael Knox 14.06.2019 8:37 ↓

The economy is much better than the GDP suggests, but there is much to be done.

Master of Ceremonies for RBA Governor Philip Lowe: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 22.05.2019 8:48 ↓

As MC of the RBA presentation I got to ask some questions up close.

The economics of the Federal election result: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 20.05.2019 5:23 ↓

Labor policy of taxing capital to subsidise consumption would have resulted in permanently lower growth.

When will the RBA act: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 16.05.2019 5:26 ↓

We think the RBA will cut in August.

RBA rate cut postponed: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 08.05.2019 6:31 ↓

The RBA is in the same position as the Fed. Employment is strong but inflation is weak. The RBA thinks core inflation will rise. When it falls they will be forced to cut rates.

Room for the RBA to cut: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 01.05.2019 4:32 ↓

The RBA is persistently underachieving its inflation target. It is now time to act.

Full Time Jobs Growth For the Year to March 2019 was 3.0%: Michael Knox, Chief Economist 24.04.2019 5:55 ↓

This is more than twice the average growth rate of full time employment since January 2008.

Why the Australian cash rate will not fall: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 17.04.2019 5:42 ↓

Rising export commodity prices will beat out falling house prices and make the economy stronger than expected.

The strange case of the Australian dollar – Michael Knox: Morgans Chief Economist 10.04.2019 5:10 ↓

Usually when commodity prices go up, the Australian dollar goes up. Strangely, now that commodity prices have gone up, the Australian dollar has gone down.

Budget 2019: Without Increasing Taxes – Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 03.04.2019 10:29 ↓

While no one was looking, rising commodity prices were generating rising tax revenue.

Why the Fed now has a Symmetric Inflation target: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 20.03.2019 8:31 ↓

Keeping rates stable as inflation rises provides support for the US economy to guard against a hard landing or actual recession.

Per capita GDP recessions and other childrens stories: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 13.03.2019 9:28 ↓

On the more reliable Trend measure, there was no per capita GDP Recession in Australia last year; although there was one in 2008.

The Ghost Of Trump Appears At The Fed: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 22.02.2019 7:10 ↓

The Fed minutes suggests that when Trump Urged the Fed to "Feel the Market" the Fed members put out their hands to follow his call.

The Aussie Dollar Is Cheap – Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 21.02.2019 5:22 ↓

The US dollar is overbought against both the Euro and the Aussie Dollar. US bonds are also overbought. Rising inflationary expectations will cause a sell off in the US dollar and in US Bonds.

Update On Oil Prices: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 18.02.2019 4:54 ↓

A decline in the stocks to consumption ratio for refined product puts upward pressure on the oil price.

The Iron Ore Price: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 06.02.2019 8:09 ↓

A decline in Chinese iron ore stocks relative to Chinese iron ore consumption, will put upward pressure on iron ore prices for the next two to three quarters.

Jay Says These Rates To Stay: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 01.02.2019 6:08 ↓

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell has said that "We think our policy rate is at an appropriate point" and "We also know that our policy rate is in the range of the committee's estimate of neutral".

Jay Powell's Problem: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 30.01.2019 7:01 ↓

I attended a presentation by FED Chair Jay Powell. He said conditions now are like when he joined the FED in 2016. In 2016 the FED kept the Fed Funds rate unchanged all year.

The Fed Cuts The Number Of Rate Hikes: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 21.12.2018 9:01 ↓

A more modest outlook for US Growth and US Inflation has reduced the number of rate hikes the Fed needs to make.

2019 Will Be Better Than Expected: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 19.12.2018 13:56 ↓

The world economy will continue to produce healthy growth in 2019