Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist

Why is US employment so strong? Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 14.02.2020 5:56 ↓

Individual tax cuts and rising real wages mean more Americans are seeking work.

Wuhan Coronavirus, Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 05.02.2020 7:46 ↓

Where might it have come from; how fast is it growing; what are its effects on the Australian Economy?

How the Fed sees the future: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 04.02.2020 5:11 ↓

In January I attended presentations by Robert Kaplan, President of the Dallas Fed, and Ben Bernake, former Chairman of the Fed. Kaplan outlined a stable short term view. Bernake discussed the long term...

The US, China and Australia in 2020: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 19.12.2019 13:58 ↓

Growth will be solid. The US dollar should weaken.

When peace breaks out in the China trade war: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 11.12.2019 8:31 ↓

An armistice in the US-China trade war has allowed an easing US dollar and a rise in oil prices.

The RBA path to quantitative easing: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 11.12.2019 5:10 ↓

What the RBA has told us about the conditions which will lead it to begin quantitative easing.

The S&P 500: Why are equity markets volatile? Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 04.12.2019 6:04 ↓

Fundamentals indicate the current sell off is merely a bull market correction.

A close look at the S&P 500: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 19.11.2019 5:52 ↓

How changes in the structure of the US economy have changed the structure of US earnings.

Why Unconventional Monetary Policy is Really Conventional: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 14.11.2019 8:23 ↓

We think the RBA will begin to refinance part of the stock of Commonwealth debt as it rolls over, to lift Australian inflation to its 2-3% target.

Melbourne Cup Strategy: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 04.11.2019 3:19 ↓

Economists generally have enough sense to know that they know nothing about horse races. There are people who do. They are called tipsters. Every Melbourne Cup Day, their tips are published in major newspapers. Today we have taken the tips published in The Australian newspaper. There are nine tipsters in all. From these tipsters we construct our most favoured rating.

The S&P500 and the ASX 200: What are they worth? Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 30.10.2019 8:27 ↓

US earnings are beginning to grow more rapidly.

China's economy changes shape: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 24.10.2019 5:42 ↓

China's growth is now driven by services not manufacturing.

Why China had to negotiate with Trump: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 18.10.2019 9:07 ↓

First, China must import large amounts of grain to rebuild its pork production. Secondly, China need to import capital to finance its current account.

A deep dive on stock market corrections: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 10.10.2019 5:45 ↓

We think the ASX 200 has a fair value of 6630 points with support between 6150 and 6300 points.

Oil and where it is going: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 09.10.2019 8:48 ↓

Oil Fundamentals are good. The problem is the $US has been rising.

One more Australian rate cut, then quantitative easing: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 03.10.2019 5:57 ↓

The RBA needs to get unemployment down to 4.00%, before it can raise core inflation to 2.5%

Why the Fed is wrong: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 25.09.2019 7:30 ↓

The Fed is vastly underestimating the possibility of an economic slump in 2021.

The likely US response to Iran attacks: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 18.09.2019 6:33 ↓

The US will likely maintain sanctions but attack Iran's capacity to conduct such strikes in the future.

Initial response to the attack on Saudi oil refineries: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 16.09.2019 3:58 ↓

The distance between Yemen and eastern Saudi Arabia suggests that an attack by Yemeni rebels is implausible.

How a Chinese RMB crisis caused the bond bubble: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 11.09.2019 15:00 ↓

Rising US tariffs on Chinese imports have caused a falling Chinese RMB, which in turn has lead to a flight of Chinese capital into US Treasury bonds.

The new Trump / China tariffs: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 28.08.2019 10:50 ↓

We look at how further Trump tariffs affect the US and Chinese economies. We also look at US and Australian equities.

Trump and the Fed: Michael Knox Morgans Chief Economist 21.08.2019 8:40 ↓

Trump has two reasons for saying the Fed should cut rates: The first is political; The second is that, he is right.

The US yield curve and the US recession: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 16.08.2019 10:33 ↓

The inversion of the US yield curve, is suggesting a soft landing for the US economy in 2021.

The outlook for the USA, the euro area, Japan and Australia: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 14.08.2019 9:07 ↓

In 2019 and 2020, Australia will grow twice as fast as the euro area, twice as fast as Japan and faster than the USA.

Trump Tariffs China: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist 08.08.2019 11:59 ↓

The US economy is slowing because of the Fed, not because of the dispute with China.