Zhang Financial Podcast

The S&P 500 rose 1.2% last week as the Magnificent 7 rebounded. International developed holds a slight edge in YTD performance at +11% compared to the S&P's +10%. Emerging markets, however, still outshine both at +24% YTD. The Federal Reserve meets this month, and there is a 22% probability of a rate hike. However, there is a much higher chance, 77%, of at least one rate hike by the e...

Multiple economic data points came in better than expected, including initial jobless claims, personal income, and personal spending. Despite this positivity, markets were negative last week, particularly in the growth and large cap sectors. The S&P 500 dropped almost 2%, while the Magnificent 7 equal-weight index was down 5.7%. The equal-weight S&P 500 is now outperforming its market-weig...

The Atlanta Federal Reserve decreased its Q2 GDP forecast from 3.3% back down to 3%. The Fed kept rates steady at its June meeting, but markets are pricing in a 42% probability of a hike in July and a 90% probability of at least one hike by the end of 2026. The S&P 500 climbed ~1% last week, now +10.2% YTD. This tops international developed markets, sitting at +9.4%. However, emerging markets...

The Atlanta Federal Reserve increased its Q2 GDP forecast from 3% to 3.3%, and the FOMC will meet next week for the first time under new Chair Kevin Warsh. No interest rate movement is expected. The S&P crept up 0.15% this week, despite the magnificent 7 dropping 2.4%. Year-to-date, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has outperformed the standard (market-weighted) S&P 500.  Disclosures: These...

Better-than-anticipated economic numbers came out last week, led by non-farm payrolls nearly doubling expectations (+172,000 actual vs. +96,000 expected). This led markets to price in a lower chance of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, and instead potentially raising them later this year. Markets tumbled as a result, with the S&P 500 losing 2.55% on the week. International markets f...

Economic indicators were mixed last week, with PCE coming in better than expected while initial jobless claims and personal income fared worse than anticipated. Still, the S&P 500 rose 1.44% as growth outperformed value. Additionally, international markets continued to climb, with emerging markets gaining 4% last week alone. Emerging markets are now up 25.6% YTD, despite the drag from underper...

Anticipation for a potential end to the war in Iran caused inflation expectations to drop, and the Atlanta Fed raised it Q2 GDP forecast from +4% to +4.3%. Interest rate hikes, rather than cuts, are expected by the end of the year; however, no change is expected at the next meeting in June. The S&P rose 0.91% last week, driven by small-cap and non-Magnificent 7 companies. International markets...

A few weeks ago, markets were anticipating an 80% chance of no interest rate changes for the rest of 2026. That has since dropped to 49%, paired with a 39% probability of one rate hike due to higher-than-expected inflation. US markets remained positive, with the S&P 500 rising 0.2% last week, now +8.7% YTD. This exceeds developed international markets, sitting at +6% YTD, but still trails emer...

Non-farm payrolls landed at 115,000, exceeding the predicted 73,000. 89% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings, and 84% of those have beaten expectations. Moreover, the average outperformance is 18.2%; this caused the index to rise 2.4% last week, and it is now +8.5% YTD. However, international markets continue to outperform, with emerging markets up +6.9% last week alone and +22.5% Y...

Q1 GDP grew at 2%, beating expectations of 1.3%. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is expecting a strong Q2 as well, projecting 3.5% growth. Interest rates remained unchanged, with markets pricing in a 77% probability of no rate movement through the end of 2026. The S&P 500 rose 0.9% as earnings impressed investors : 84% of S&P companies that have reported have beaten expectations, on average by...

Slower-than-expected PPI data and a robust start to the earnings season, where 88% of companies have beaten estimates, pushed the S&P 500 up 4.55% last week. Markets are pricing in a 51% probability of no rate changes this year, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting 1.3% growth for Q1 GDP. Disclosures: These materials have been designed for general informational and educational purpos...

In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob details last week's release of economic data, with all eyes on inflation. The 10-year inflation expectation sits at 2.36%, showing markets are viewing the Iran War's impact on energy prices, and its inflationary effects, as transitory. Stocks reacted positively last week, with the S&P 500 rising 3.6%. International markets, howe...

In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob recaps a week of better-than-expected economic data, from new jobless claims to unemployment rate. The Federal Reserve currently projects Q1 GDP growth at 1.6%, and a rate cut at its April meeting is not expected. The S&P 500 rose 1.65%, largely driven by the Magnificent 7. Outside the US, international developed markets climbed 2.1%, whi...

In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob highlights shifting rate expectations and continued market pressure amid the ongoing conflict in Iran. Inflation expectations declined while Q1 GDP expectations were revised to 2.0%. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in April, with fewer potential cuts priced in. Equity markets struggled, led by weakness in large-cap and growth, while...

In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob outlines a week of mixed economic data. Initial jobless claims came in slightly better than expected, but Q4 GDP was revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%. Markets fell, largely driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran. The S&P 500 was down 1.6%, now sitting at -2.9% YTD. International developed markets lost 6.3%, though they remain at +2.9% YTD....

In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob covers the prior week's economic and geopolitical news. Inflation expectations climbed as oil prices rose in response to the US and Israel attacking Iran. The conflict also dampened markets : the S&P 500 dropped 2% during the week, international developed markets fell 6.3%, and emerging markets were down over 7%. Disclosures: These m...

In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob recaps a week of tame stock market activity, with the S&P rising 0.4%. The Magnificent 7 continue to underperform the broader market, and international equities have persisted in topping the US market YTD, similar to 2025. Ahead, the Federal Reserve meets at the end of March, and no rate change is expected. Disclosures: These materials ha...

In this week's Zhang Financial market Outlook, Rob recaps a week of economic announcements that started off strong but struggled near the end of the week. Q4 GDP growth was released at 1.4%, well below the Atlanta Federal Reserve estimate of 4.2%. The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's current tariffs, but the administration will likely pursue other legal avenues to enforce its...

In this week's Zhang Financial Market Outlook, Rob covers a week of mostly positive economic news, aside from labor markets. Initial jobless claims came in worse than expected. Despite that, consumer sentiment beat expectations and the ISM Manufacturing Index was positive. US markets were flat on the week, but the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 2.14%. International markets grew slightly, while...

In this week's Zhang Financial Market Outlook, Rob reviews the past week of economic data, which was dominated by the US Federal Reserve. The Fed kept interest rates steady, which was largely expected, but their Q4 GDP estimate was revised down from 5.4% to 4.2%. Finally, President Trump revealed Kevin Warsh as his planned nominee for the next Fed Chair: stocks were flat, but gold and silver...

In this week's Zhang Financial Market Outlook, Rob covers the inflation data and initial jobless claims that beat expectations, as well as the Atlanta Federal Reserve upping their Q4 GDP estimate from 5.1% to 5.3%. While the S&P 500 finished down 0.5% for the week, the equal-weight S&P 500 finished up 0.5%, showing a broadening of market gains away from just the Magnificent 7 stocks....

In this week's Zhang Financial Market Outlook, Rob recaps a week that contained mixed economic data, but the market reacted favorably. Any information coming in below expectations fueled predictions that the Federal Reserve will cut rates multiple times in 2026. The S&P 500 rose almost 1.5%, but the Russell 2000, consisting of small cap companies that stand to benefit from additional rate...

In this week's Zhang Financial Market Outlook, Rob covers a week of light economic data amid the holidays. The S&P 500 finished 2025 up 17.9%, while developed International markets finished the year up 31.9%. Looking ahead, there is an 18% chance of an interest rate cut in January; however, investors anticipate a 95% probability of 2+ rate cuts by the end of 2026. Disclosures: These mater...

In the latest Zhang Financial Market Outlook, Rob recaps the Q3 GDP release : the US economy grew +4.3%, beating a consensus estimate of 3.3%. Markets reacted positively, with the S&P climbing 1.4% last week, now up 19.2% YTD. Though strong, international markets are still outperforming in 2025, with ex-US developed markets +32% YTD and emerging markets +33% YTD.  Disclosures: These materials...

In this week's Zhang Financial Market Outlook, Rob details a week containing economic data from recent months as Government data begins to flow again. The unemployment rate rose, but inflation came in much better than expected. Q3 GDP will be released this week, which investors are watching : the expectation is +3.5%. Disclosures: These materials have been designed for general informational a...