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UBS has stated that 60% of companies are greatly reducing their US Artificial Intelligence usage in favor of Chinese AI due to the reduced costs. Chinese AI costs are up to 95% less than US AI technology.  Benchmark tests are showing that Chinese AI is 80 - 95% as effective as US AI. It is becoming difficult for companies to justify the cost of US AI with the Chinese models nearly as efficient. AI...

The US Equity Market Valuation has hit the highest level ever recorded! This combined metric includes P/E, Forward P/E, Shiller P/E, EV/EBITDA, Price-to-Book, Price-to-Sales, Q Ratio, Return on Equity (RoE), and the Warren Buffett Indicator.  The US Equity Market Valuation metric has hit the 80% percentile 5 times since 1900. Each time this happened previously, US stock performance suffered underp...

Inflation has increased for the third consecutive month. Historically, inflation happens in waves.    The recent Federal Reserve meeting was the first one with the new Chairman, Kevin Warsh. Following are the highlights:    1. Half of the Fed Governors projected a rate increase in 2026    2. None of the Fed Governors project a rate decrease.    3. The Fed has dropped forward guidance.   The stock...

IPO's over the past 45 years that debut above 40x sales underperform the market by 58% over the next 3 years.  SpaceX IPO initial price was about 90x sales. The lower the price to sale ratio, the better the returns long-term. The top 10 largest IPO's price dropped an average of 35% in 6 months. IPO's tend to issue a the end of a bull market not when stocks are cheap.   70% of Bank of America's bea...

Apple went public in 1980 at 15X revenue.   SpaceX is scheduled to go public on 6.12.26 at 100X revenue. The market cap is estimated to be $1.5 -2.0 trillion valuation. This would be higher than Microsoft. SpaceX would be the third largest company by market cap in the US, behind only Apple and Nvidia.   SpaceX lost over $4 billion in Q1 2026. Total losses since founding have been over $40 billion....

Stock valuations have almost never been higher.   - The Buffet Indicator is at 233, the highest ever recorded. Market cap to GDP has never been higher.   - The Schiller Adjusted Price to Earnings ratio is the second highest recorded in 145 years. At current valuations, it would take over 40 years to recover the investment through earnings.    - The Bank of America Bull and Bear Indicator is scream...

The bond market worldwide is in crisis.   The US 30 Year Bond recently rose to 5.2%, the highest since 2007.  The UK 30 Year Bond is the highest since 1998. The Japanese 30 Year Bond is the highest level ever recorded.   The primary reason is debt in the western world is at the highest levels ever recorded.  Due to the government spending, inflation is increasing in 27 of the 29 largest economies...

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) recently disclosed that they provided zero down mortgages to H-1B visa holders and other non-citizens during the Biden administration. The Trump administration shut this down in June 2025.   FHA used programs designed to help low income US citizens purchase a home. Hard working Americans were getting screwed twice.     1. US taxpayers were funding homes for...

The S&P 500 has increased about 16% in the past month to a new all-time high.   The earnings have been strong. The recent unemployment numbers are phenomenal!   The economy is showing signs of strength, yet significant volatility remains.   Nearly every market measurement is at extreme high levels. Risk is highest at extreme levels.   Berkshire Hathaway cash is at an all-time high and has sold sto...

The US Supreme Court ruled that states can no longer use race to draw congressional districts. 20-30 house seats are represented by districts drawn to represent minorities.    The court ruled this violated the Equal Protection Clause and the civil rights of the majority of voters. Democrats have benefited for decades with these congressional districts.    This is a massive change in political powe...

Two things have caused me to be concerned about conditions that could lead to the Next Civil War. Hope it does not happen. Not encouraging violence. Using common sense, historical insight, human behavior.   1.Virginia redistricting    - Everyone gerrymanders    - 51% disenfranchised 49% of voters in VA    - New England averages 42% republicans, yet only one republican out of 33 House districts   ...

The US controls Venezuelan oil and has blockaded Iranian oil.   The US has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz. About 50% of China's oil came through this strait.   The US has established a security agreement with the Indonesia. About 80% of China's oil travels through Indonesian Straits.   The US has eliminated the cheap oil to China from Iran and Venezuela.   The US controls the shipping lanes for ab...

When negotiating a salary or a raise, most people don't know what they are up against.   Many companies purchase data from payroll processors and other sources to optimize salary expenses.   This info often includes previous job incomes and what increases you recieved. The info obtained by companies include address changes, credit card utilization, delinquent debt, and past due balances. This data...

Millions of illegal aliens flooded into America during the Biden administration and previous years.    They were given cash, food, shelter, and many other benefits.    There is even a scholarship specifically for illegals. The Dream US is the nation's largest program for undocumented immigrant students. Illegals get $33,000 for a bachelor's degree. They have awarded over 12,000 scholarships to dat...

Included in the Census:  - Illegal Aliens  - Green Card Holders  - Work Visa Holders  - Student Visa Holders Why should we have representatives representing this wave of foreigners?   There is Daycare fraud, EBT fraud, Hospice fraud, Medicaid fraud, Medicare fraud, Medical Transportation fraud, SNAP fraud, but we are supposed to believe there is no election fraud?   We are told about 20 million il...

The government is not serving its purpose when it is not protecting and benefiting its citizens. When it actively prioritizes anyone over citizens, those policies need to be changed. If the government makes citizens' lives more difficult, challenging, or less safe,  anyone involved needs to be replaced.   Housing has never been more unaffordable.  - Government contributed to the problem by spendin...

Initially I was against the Iran War. I realized it was a knee-jerk reaction to forever wars.   Below are the reasons why gradually have come to support it. 1. Trump is different than previous presidents. 2. Iran is the #1 sponsor of terrorism in the world 3. This is about China and oil, not just Iran. China's primary allies for oil was Venezuela and Iran. Wars need oil. This weakens China militar...

Ferenc Compares Index Annuities with the new Hybrid Annuities   1. A common myth is that if you want guarantees, you have to sacrifice strong growth. This is no longer true.   2. Ferenc shares a new client case that compared an  Index Annuity with a Hybrid Annuity.                                             Hybrid Annuity                                            Index Annuity            Growth:...

Ferenc Dispels Several Myths and Misconceptions with Index Annuities and Index Universal Life Policies including:   1. If you want guarantees, you don't have to sacrifice strong returns. If you own an index product with poor returns, you are invested in the wrong indexes. 2. Unlimited upside with no downside risk is "too good to be true". Ferenc explains insurance companies invest the interest, no...

Ferenc shares several interesting recent client meetings. Many listeners will gain valuable financial insights.       1. An annual review with a client who received 20% return with their index annuity this past year.      2.A review with a client that invested in index annuities and high cash value policies in 2007, then guaranteed lifetime income later. Very interesting story through the Great Re...

Gold dropped 5% while Silver fell 10% in one day recently. The S&P 500 Index has stayed in a range between 6800 and 7000 since the beginning of the year. 2026 may become known as the year of volatility.   This is not a surprise. I stated about a month ago that gold and silver had increased in value so quickly that it was unsustainable. I also stated it would be a good time to lock in some gains. W...

Gold prices have dropped suddenly after a historic increases over the past year. Silver plunged 26% in one day, the largest drop in history.   Gold and to a lessor degree silver prices had increased dramatically due to concerns about inflation and excess money printing by the Federal Reserve. Leverage exaggerated the rise in prices and the crash. As prices dropped, many investors faced margin call...

A household needs $132,000 income to afford the median home. Only 31% of households can afford the median home.   The median age of homebuyers is 59. The average age of first-time homebuyers is 40.    77% of households earning $132,000+ already own their home.   Therefore, 50% of the housing market is chasing the 7% of total homebuyers that can afford a home that do not already own.   This will no...

Trump just issued an executive order to ban large institutional investors from purchasing single family homes. He stated "A person sweats, works, buys one house and can't take depreciation".   The average age of first time homebuyers is 40, the highest ever recorded. The average age of all homebuyers is 59. Homebuyers over the age of 70 outnumber buyers under 35. This is not a healthy market.   Tr...

The mortgage lock-in effect may be starting to ease.   There are more mortgage holders with 6%+ rates than sub 3% mortgages for the first time since 2020.    As more existing homeowners have higher interest rates they may be more willing to sell their homes. More houses for sale likely will lead to reduced prices.   Lennar, then second largest homebuilder in the US, were selling homes for $500,000...