Wheat Market Outlook

Market Outlook – Wheat Some weather stories are showing themselves across the global wheat production regions but not enough to get markets overly excited. We have the EU heatwave which is turning into more of a corn story than a wheat story, we have the U.S. heatwave this week but on fields that have received ample rainfall and we have the Western Canadian flooding story that is yet to be fully u...

Market Outlook - Wheat EU heat has taken the top end off yield ideas, Canadian excess moisture is becoming a more legitimate production and quality risk, and tomorrow’s Statistics Canada and USDA acreage report will provide fresh fundamental data points. Markets are comfortable right now with the current state of the crops across the United States and Black Sea region. Good rainfall has been hitti...

Market Outlook - Wheat Wheat markets are pricing in good supply for the upcoming Canadian crop despite the challenges being noted in pockets of the Canadian prairies related to excess moisture. We will have Canadian acreage report on June 30, 2026, which will be highly anticipated by the markets as it gives the trade some fresh fundamentals to place positions on and allows some further number crun...

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT The market is generally satisfied with the Canadian and global crop for now. Limited drought or general weather concerns for most of the Canadian Prairies. The market is pricing in good supply for the upcoming Canadian crop despite the challenges being noted in east central Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba production regions. Peace region of Alberta has been on the dry sid...

Market Outlook - Wheat Wheat markets saw a major selloff this past week as fund selling accelerated and removed a large amount of weather risk premium from the market. Funds added 39,165 contracts to their Chicago wheat short position, one of the fastest repositioning moves on record. U.S. new crop wheat export sales are also running 26 per cent below last year, with markets concerned that U.S. wh...

Market Outlook - Wheat Wheat markets faded over the past week, but we are just getting into the spring wheat growing season in North America. We will have the first USDA Crop Progress report for the U.S. spring wheat, corn, soybeans, barley and corn crop this year which will be released today (Monday), after the market close. The market will use today's figures as a benchmark for the ongoing w...

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Markets are getting an initial understanding on how the northern hemisphere crop is beginning to shape up. The market traded the prior few weeks with the understanding that the U.S. winter wheat crop conditions were dropping. With the finalization of the U.S. winter wheat tours, the cropharvest has officially begun. The crop is 5 per cent harvested in Texas and just beginnin...

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Markets are dealing with growing concerns for spring wheat planting delays in Russia and in the northern regions of the Canadian Prairies. Much anticipation as to how the coming two weeks shape up on the planting progress. The story in the United States remains the Hard Red Winter Wheat region with harvest set to begin shortly there in some of the most drought affected areas...

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets are trying to calculate the outcome from the Kansas wheat tour this week. Oklahoma’s crop tour showed just how bad the drought there did affect the crop. We will get the USDA’s first crack at production but also demand side of the trade in tomorrow’s report. Expect the market to watch this one as it is one of the more watched USDA reports of the year. Canadian...

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Markets trying to decipher where the fine line is between where the crops will benefit from the forecasted rainfall in western Kansas and eastern Colorado this week. The markets did not do an abrupt selloff on theforecasted precipitation, which points to markets sitting with a “show me” attitude on the upcoming rains. This region is the markets focus on wheat, but we are sta...

Market Outlook – Wheat Markets sit at two-year highs on the spring wheat chart in Minneapolis. The weather risk has baked itself into the current wheat market values with growing concern of how much tonnage will come from the U.S. HRW wheat region. Thisregion is the markets focus, but we are starting to see a few more reports out of the Euro region and eastern Europe. Some colder weather there has...

Market Outlook – Wheat Markets are hyper focused on the U.S. winter wheat crop as the only real problematic region in the world.  Russia, Ukraine and European Union crops all look as expected and are growing without major market concern. Many of these regions will be putting out a smaller crop than last year but that has been anticipated for several months now, partly in anticipation to come off o...

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT As of right now, dryness in the United States is the most watched on the radar. Most of the Euro region and into the Black Sea are faring alright with some issues but nothing to raise major attention of markets. Ukraine’s southern region and Poland are faring on the drier side, although the market is not focusing quite on major production losses there yet, but will be monito...

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on forwards for the growing regions of northern hemisphere crops. Better rainfall for parts of the U.S. winter wheat production region is in the forecast for Oklahoma and Kansas. As of right now, dryness in the United States is the most watched on the radar. Most of the Euro region and into the Black Sea a...

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets will begin to see more reports on the Northern Hemisphere crops as their growing season begins. Expect more consistent weather updates as the crop conditions reports will begin to be released from major wheat production / exporting nations: Russia, Ukraine, European Union, Canada and the United States. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more going...

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Domestic bids to Saskatchewan producers pulled back slightly from last week's peaks. Risk premium had been put into ag markets on the conflict and will trade accordingly. Wheat markets have an interesting few weeks ahead of them as the Gulf region conflict persists and we will begin to see more reports on the Northern Hemisphere crops as their growing season begins. Mark...

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Futures take a setback on Monday morning after having had a strong showing this past week. Risk premium had been put into ag markets on the conflict and will trade accordingly. This past trading week, Canadian wheat domestic price targets have been triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September and $8 became obtainable in a...

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat futures had a strong showing this past week and have translated into some higher value targets being picked up for wheat across the Prairies. Iranian conflict shaking up markets all around including energies and agriculture. Risk premium had been put into ag markets on the conflict and will trade accordingly. The region is a large net importer of wheat, and markets mig...

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat futures had a strong showing this past week and have translated into some higher value targets being picked up for wheat across the prairies. Canadian wheat domestic price targets are being triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September. Some buying of futures in the market has reduced overall managed money short posi...

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Wheat futures have had a strong showing this past week and has translated into some higher value targets being picked up for wheat across the Prairies. Canadian wheat domestic prices are up $8 to $10 CDN per tonne week-over-week for posted bids and targets are being triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September. Some buyin...

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Bids to Canadian prairie producers have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed on futures drops. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in Black Sea, European Union and United States when they do begin to break dormancy into April. Th...

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Bids to Canadian Prairie producers have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed on futures drops. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States. All initial reports for these areas remain mos...

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Western Canadian export wheat bids picked up another $2 per tonne week-over-week off the west coast, after snagging $2 the week prior. Inland bids have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed on futures drops. Wheat markets were watching for winterkill news out of the Black Sea or U.S. wheat pro...

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Western Canadian export wheat bids picked up $2 per tonne week-over-week at the port and seeing some similar strength at inland locations. Bids have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed. The markets are watching if cold weather in the United States and Black Sea wheat production regions will...

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Western Canadian cash wheat bids lost $1 per tonne week over week but remain in the trading range for cash values we have seen since late November. Western Canadian bids for producers have been quite steady overall with limited moves to the upside. Basis has been found to strengthen when futures weaken in Central SK values. Producers continue to fill the system with wheat ar...