What's Next For Markets

The second half of the year is off to a strong start, but beneath the surface the market is changing. This week we're joined by Danny Kirsch to discuss why investors are increasingly looking beyond the AI trade and what that could mean for the next phase of the bull market. We dive into the broadening rally across the S&P 500, why semiconductor stocks have become unusually volatile, and h...

For the past few years, AI has been the market's defining story, but the conversation is beginning to evolve. In this episode, we examine why falling Treasury yields are becoming just as important as AI earnings, what the Fed may be signaling versus what the market believes, and why a broadening rally has quietly been taking shape. We also discuss how changing inflation expectations, improvin...

Inflation may be cooling faster than markets expect and the implications are big. This week, we sit down with Jake Oubina to break down why commodity shocks are fading, why core inflation is set to grind lower, and why the Fed may be done hiking for this cycle. We connect the dots from falling gas prices to improving consumer confidence, stronger job growth, and a potential tailwind for housing an...

In this episode, we go deep into the mechanics of index construction with Jackson Venjohn Head Of Index Rebalancing At Piper Sandler. With hundreds of billions in forced buying and selling, the rise of passive investing has fundamentally changed how stocks trade, how liquidity forms, and how opportunities emerge. We unpack the largest rebalance cycle ever, and how blockbuster IPOs like SpaceX coul...

In this episode, we unpack the profound shift reshaping markets: the transition from a growth-driven framework to one dominated by interest rates and inflation anxiety. What began in late 2023 as a simple observation—that falling rates lift equities while rising rates pressure them—has evolved into a full-blown regime change with deep historical parallels. We explore why “bad news” like softer eco...

Interest rates are once again the market’s main character and while headline indices sit near all-time highs, the story underneath is far less comfortable. In this episode, Michael unpacks the growing disconnect between index-level strength and deteriorating market breadth, We dig into the regime shift that’s made rates matter more than growth, the reflexive cycle between yields, economic data, an...

In this episode, we’re joined by Kevin Gordon, Head of Macro Research and Strategy at Charles Schwab, to break down one of the most confusing market environments in years. Despite geopolitical tension, rising rates, and persistent inflation concerns, markets continue to push to new highs. Kevin shares what he’s hearing from investors across the country, from retail to institutional and why the gap...

In this episode, Emily breaks down a week where stocks hit all-time highs even as interest rates and oil prices moved higher. So what’s really going on? The answer lies beneath the surface. Despite constant headline noise and investor skepticism, the underlying story is clear; this market rally is broader, stronger, and more fundamentally driven than many realize. The big question—can it continue?...

In this episode we sit down with Kurt Lewis, Head of Central Bank Policy at Piper Sandler and former Special Advisor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Kurt brings a rare insider perspective, having spent nearly two decades at the Federal Reserve, including during the global financial crisis, the COVID shock, and the recent inflation surge. From briefing policymakers to shaping conversations at the highe...

Four months into the year, markets have been anything but quiet. Headlines around oil prices, geopolitics, and inflation anxiety continue to dominate the narrative, but beneath the noise, the data tells a very different story. In this episode, we break down why resilient economic data is quietly driving markets higher. From surging PMI readings to improving earnings breadth across small, mid, and...

In this episode, we welcome back Jake Oubina, Managing Director and Deputy Head of Economic Research at Piper Sandler, for a wide-ranging discussion on the macro outlook. Despite geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and shifting sentiment, Jake has remained anchored to a 3% real GDP growth view. Together, we explore key risks ahead, including potential tariff re-escalation, shifting immigrati...

In this episode, we sit down with Emily Needell to unpack a truly remarkable start to 2026, one that may go down as one of the most eventful quarters in recent memory. What began as a near “Goldilocks” environment, with improving economic data, falling rates, and long-awaited market broadening quickly evolved into something far more complex. We explore three defining themes of the quarter: the ear...

In this episode, we shift the focus from oil headlines to the force quietly driving everything underneath: interest rates. Four weeks into the Iran conflict, markets remain locked on energy, but as Michael explains, it’s the surge in rates that’s doing the real damage. With the 10-year yield climbing, mortgage rates rising, and rate cuts rapidly priced out, financial conditions are tightening fast...

In this episode, we sit down with Jan Stuart to unpack the escalating geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and why it could trigger a far broader global repricing across markets. Jan explains why the current disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is far more complex than an oil shock. While markets have largely treated the conflict as a one-variable story tied to crude prices, he argues the real...

In this episode, we discuss how the recent spike in crude has created a “one-variable market,” where leadership becomes highly binary. Despite the headlines, the broader market hasn’t fallen as much as many expected. Michael explains why investors are focusing less on the current price of oil and more on how long higher prices might last, with the oil futures curve still suggesting the spike could...

In this episode, we sit down with Danny Kirsch to unpack one of the most unusual market environments in decades. The index has traded in an exceptionally tight range, yet beneath that stability we’re seeing historic dispersion, major sector rotation, and a surge in single-stock volatility. Mega-cap leadership is fading while the equal-weight market pushes to new highs. Capital is rotating into cyc...

In this episode, Michael and Stephen break down one of the most confusing market environments in years. While volatility in mega-cap software and AI names has grabbed headlines, the broader market is quietly telling a very different story. With the “Mag Seven” representing over a third of the S&P 500 at the start of the year, weakness in just a handful of stocks has masked what may be one of t...

This week’s episode explores a dramatic shift in market sentiment that unfolded in just a few days. Emily and Michael are joined by Jay Glickson to discuss what institutional investors are saying, how AI disruption fears are influencing positioning, and why the broader macro backdrop may still support a rotation into cyclical and value-oriented areas of the market. Despite heightened anxiety, part...

In this Super Bowl Sunday episode, Michael and Stephen break down a volatile week in the markets that felt far worse than the major indices suggested. While mega-cap tech, software, and crypto saw sharp swings, the broader market quietly showed signs of strength, with value stocks and equal-weight indices hitting new highs. Michael shares insights from a week of client meetings on the road and exp...

In this episode, Piper Sandler Senior Analyst Crispin Love, discusses the current trends, misconceptions, and outlook in the mortgage finance space. He explains how mortgage rates have fluctuated from 7% to 6% recently and the impact on mortgage originations and refinancing volumes. Crispin highlights the significance of the rate of change in mortgage rates over their absolute levels and examines...

In this episode we talk with Jan Stuart, Global Energy Economist at Piper Sandler. We discuss the current state of the oil market, the potential tailwinds from economic growth, and how a shift in demand could impact the energy space by 2026. Jan highlights the importance of oil for the economy, predicting that demand won't decline significantly until the next decade. The episode delves into t...

In this episode, Michael discusses the team’s annual market outlook for 2026. The conversation explores key economic trends, policy developments, and the potential for broader market participation. Topics include the implications of Trump’s affordability measures, the impact of interest rates and oil prices, and specific investment opportunities for the year ahead. Michael shares a bullish view on...

This week, we’re doing something a little different. Instead of a traditional guest conversation, we fed our full 2025 Year-End Market Review into Google’s NotebookLM and asked it to generate a five-minute discussion summarizing the year in markets. The result is an AI-generated conversation that distills a year’s worth of research, charts, and frameworks into a concise narrative — highlighting wh...

In this discussion, we are joined by Jordy Visser to delve into how exponential innovation, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), is reshaping traditional business cycles. The conversation covers the potential of AI to drive earnings, enhance productivity, and impact labor markets, suggesting that the forthcoming PMI cycle could be one of the most significant in decades. We explore why AI isn...

In this episode, Emily Needell sits down with Amy McAneny, partner and private equity tax leader at PWC, to discuss the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) and its implications for individual and institutional investors. Amy explains critical changes such as the permanent 37% top individual tax rate, increased standard deductions, and enhanced depreciation deductions for US-based companies. The episode...