Walker Crips' Market Commentary

Equity markets delivered mild returns, despite an array of poor economic data announcements. Bond yields were also relatively flat leading to minor price changes with weakening conditions justifying potentially lower interest rate hikes across multiple developed economies. Figures released from the Office for National Statistics revealed further falls in retail sales by 1% in December as strugglin...

Equity markets broadly experienced another positive week with the FTSE 100 rising 1.7% over the period, to reach a near all-time high. Investors eagerly awaited the results from the latest US inflation figures which revealed a fall to 6.5% from 7.1% the previous month, in line with expectations. This was the sixth consecutive fall in CPI inflation driven largely by declining oil prices. This...

The markets ended 2022 on a high note, following what has been a very tough year for investors. The continued rise of inflation has ultimately led economies into a "once in generation" macro-economic cycle, of the kind last seen in the 1970s. There was a huge sell off in growth assets and fixed interest, to the extent that low risk investors generally performed worse than medium/high risk investor...

The week started well enough, with the publication of American data showing that the pace of inflation had decelerated more than expected in November. US petrol prices had fallen during the month, while food and rent inflation both moderated. Investors were jubilant all over the world. This was the long-awaited evidence that inflation had peaked, and markets seemed set for an easy run-in to the en...

Lacking the kind of economic data or central bank decisions that have moved asset prices recently, markets mostly drifted sideways or slightly lower during the week. As a result, most asset classes have been able to hang onto their recent gains. This rally has now lasted for two months, having been initially triggered by the expectation, subsequently proved correct, that central banks would slow t...

The markets were again driven by hopes of an easing in interest rate policy at the US Federal Reserve, as Fed Chairman Powell appeared to soften his stance in a speech in Washington DC last week. US government bonds had another good week. Their yields have been on a declining trend now for almost two months and, globally, other government bonds have mostly moved in lockstep with the US. Global sto...

Markets continued to demonstrate resilience last week despite an accumulation of problems in China which threatened to undermine sentiment. Along the way, investors were cheered by European business activity surveys that were significantly better than expected, leading to comments by some optimistic investment strategists that any recession is likely to be relatively shallow. This view may be colo...

In a relatively light week for economic data and company updates, markets broadly managed to hold onto the momentous gains of the previous week. Coming so soon after last week’s relatively benign US inflation data, the week got off to a good start with a deceleration in US producer price inflation, which should ultimately feed through into lower inflation in the prices of goods for consumers. What...

Nearly all the price action in markets last week came in a burst of euphoric demand following the publication of relatively benign American inflation data. US inflation fell from 8.2% in September to 7.7% in October, with the details revealing that inflationary pressures were easing across the board: the pace of inflation decelerated in the property and service sectors between September and Octobe...

Monetary policy and economic data were in the driving seat last week, with both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England scheduled to announce monetary policy decisions. The Fed raised the possibility of a slowdown in the pace of interest rate rises, adding new language to its statement on monetary policy to the effect that it would consider the cumulative impact of rate rises on the economy...

Stock markets ran the gauntlet this week of some weak financial performance from the technology industry, as well as disappointing economic data, but without sustaining much damage. In fact, the resilience of markets to bad news raises the possibility that the recent bottom could mark the end of the current bear market.  This hope is dependent on central banks softening the tone of their comm...

Stock markets managed to build on their rally of the previous week as the flow of news turned from unremittingly bad to merely “mixed”, and the steady drumbeat of company profit warnings was occasionally drowned out by some surprisingly upbeat reports. Stock markets were even able to shrug off another dismal performance by bond markets, helped by a relatively steady week for the US dollar.  S...

It was a turbulent week for markets and British politics. On 14th October Kwasi Kwarteng was sacked as the Chancellor meaning he was the second shortest serving Chancellor in British history at 38 days. He was replaced by Jeremy Hunt who swiftly announced a reversal of the majority of the tax cuts previously outlined, helping to bring nominal yields down on government bonds and restore some calm t...

Stock markets started the week brightly enough, with a two-day rally as good as any since the start of the pandemic. But it was not to last, as OPEC dealt a blow to investors outside the oil sector, and to consumers battling inflation, by opting to cut oil production by two million barrels a day. This was enough to trigger a rally of nearly 10% in the price of oil. The decision came despite franti...

It was a week of unremittingly bad news that sent stock and bond markets to new lows for the year. The week opened with the furore over the government’s mini-budget still rippling through markets. British banks withdrew mortgage offers in response to the volatile environment for interest rates unleashed by the mini-budget and, in an unusual sign of international frustration, the mini-budget drew c...

Markets were already enduring a torrid time when the British government dropped its fiscal bomb on Friday. Earlier in the week, the US Federal Reserve had raised rates by 0.75% as expected, but there was no let-up in the hawkish tone as the Fed simultaneously cut its growth forecast and lifted its own expectations for future interest rates. Once again, the Fed is signalling that it is ready to tol...

Bad inflation data from the US wiped out a promising, four-day rally with such violence that new lows for the year are looming for many assets. US inflation fell to 8.3% in August from 8.5% in July, a decline to be fair, but not the decline the market was looking for. In fact, aside from the expected moderation in food and fuel prices, there were hefty gains in goods and services as diverse as new...

Stock markets broke their losing streak with impressive rallies across-the-board globally, despite more tough talk by central bankers and the absence of a recovery in bond markets. European stock markets recovered all their losses caused by last week’s total suspension of natural gas supplies from Russia to Europe and, counterintuitively, European gas prices have actually declined by nearly 50% si...

Capital markets continued their decline in the wake of the US Federal Reserve chairman’s speech of the previous week, with the pain spreading across a wide range of asset classes. US stockmarkets failed to muster any kind of rally but, at least, they are still well above the lows reached in June. European stockmarkets, on the other hand, are retesting their lows of the year, following news that Ga...

There was a lot to digest after a speech by the US Federal Reserve Chairman at a conference sent stock markets into a tailspin, but it was less the contents of the speech than the reaction of the markets that raised questions. For several months, now, central bankers in the western world have been explicit about prioritising inflation over economic growth. Chairman Powell’s speech made this same p...

Markets hit the buffers this week following two months in which they had mounted an improbable rally in the face of deteriorating economic data. It took only a few trading days for continental European stock markets to give back a third of the gains accumulated during the rally. American markets followed Europe down, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index leading the way, albeit after an...

Stock markets managed another week of gains, extending the rally in American indices to two months. This has encouraged a hint of euphoria to develop, which has been reflected in the rise of cryptocurrencies, meme stocks and, of course, the technology sector favourites. Judged by the strength and breadth of the rally, and the fact that a lot of bad news has been absorbed on the way up, some analys...

It was another week in which stock and bond markets rose, overcoming worrisome news about inflation’s impact on the economy. The case for bonds is straightforward: the robustness with which central bankers are hiking rates has persuaded bond investors that they can bring inflation under control, even if it means causing a recession. Recessions are not necessarily bad for bonds and, after a histori...

Stock markets showed impressive, some would say heroic, resilience in the face of another week of largely bad news. Europe was again at the centre of a geopolitical maelstrom, as fears grew that the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, which had been closed for maintenance, might not re-open. Gazprom, the pipeline’s operator, certainly gave that impression when it invoked force...

Stock markets managed to end the week roughly flat, despite the announcement of dreadful inflation data in the US that threatened to derail the current, month-long bounce. There was little to be positive about in the data: US inflation leapt to 9.1% in June from 8.6% in the previous month, far surpassing most expectations. Fuel and food did most of the damage but, excluding these more-volatile com...