VREF | The Truth About the Aviation Market

In this episode: • Why the DeltaHawk engine is one of the most significant piston-engine developments in decades • Why a clean-sheet aircraft engine matters in an industry built around very old designs • What makes the DeltaHawk different from traditional piston engines • Why Jet A capability matters in a world moving away from leaded aviation fuel • How the engine’s diesel design, single power le...

In this episode, we cover: • Why Bitcoin’s selloff is a useful comparison for what is happening in aviation • Why “meltdown” always depends on the time frame you are using • How market damage often happens long before the public starts panicking • Why aviation is showing the same behavioral pattern as other asset cycles • Why participation dries up before prices visibly break • How sentiment crack...

Everybody hates a down market. Sellers hate it. Brokers hate it. The guy who bought at the top really hates it. But here is what nobody wants to say out loud: A down market may be the best buying environment you will ever see. The problem is most buyers sit on the sidelines waiting for the market to feel safe again. And by the time it feels safe, the deal is gone. In this episode: • Why a down mar...

Not every aviation mistake happens in the cockpit. Some happen in the purchase agreement. Some happen in the asking price. Some happen at tax time. Some happen when smart people trust market sentiment instead of market data. In this episode, Jason walks through three real-world aircraft transaction stories, with names and details redacted, showing how successful people lose real money by mistaking...

In this episode of The Truth About the Market , Jason walks through a real legal case in which he served as an expert witness. Certain names and details have been omitted or redacted for privacy, but the facts are drawn from court filings, testimony, and the underlying transaction itself... which became years of litigation involving ownership rights, sale proceeds, contract interpretation, and the...

In this episode of The Truth About the Market , Jason responds to a new claim making the rounds in aviation: that legacy aircraft valuation methods are “broken math,” and that AI-powered valuation tools have supposedly discovered a better way to price aircraft. In this episode, we cover: • Why “free” aircraft valuations should always raise one immediate question • Why asking prices are not the sam...

In this episode of The Truth About the Market , Jason breaks down: • Why most failed aircraft deals are caused by mismatched assumptions, not bad aircraft • How one sentence in an LOI or APA can shift leverage, responsibility, and liability • Why buyers should never fall in love with an aircraft before the pre-buy is complete • Why sellers often assume a good airplane means a clean transaction • H...

In this episode of The Truth About the Market , Jason breaks down the Q2 2026 market numbers and explains why the aircraft market has fully unwound from the extraordinary conditions of 2021 and 2022. In this episode, we cover: Why April 2026 transaction volume is one of the weakest April readings of the last decade How current closings compare to 2025, 2024, and the extraordinary post-COVID market...

Everyone is looking at charts right now. Asking prices. Inventory counts. Scraped listing data. AI-generated market summaries. And most of them are missing the same thing. The market is moving. It is just not moving where they are looking. In this episode of The Truth About the Market, Jason breaks down why aircraft markets rarely reveal stress through public pricing first. They reveal it through...

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF The headlines say the pre-owned aircraft market is flourishing. Deals are closing faster. Pricing is stabilizing. Buyers are active. But the data tells a very different story. Inventory is essentially flat year over year. Asking prices have dropped materially. And yet transaction volume is collapsing. That is not a norm...

General aviation buyers love to compare airplanes. Vision Jet versus Epic. Jet versus turboprop. Speed versus payload. Range versus cost. But that’s only part of the decision. In this episode of The Truth About the Market , Jason breaks down why the aircraft itself is often not where the real risk begins. The risk starts earlier, in the assumptions, the transaction structure, the people advising y...

Why Aircraft Coverage Is Becoming a Market Signal, Not Just a Cost Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft insurance used to feel like a fixed expense. You bought the airplane. You called your broker. You got coverage. You moved on. That world is changing. Insurance is no longer just protection. It is a capital-driven pricing system that reflects how...

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aircraft transactions used to be simple. Buyer. Seller. Broker. Attorney. Escrow. Pre-buy. Now a single deal can involve brokers, support teams, transaction managers, in-house counsel, outside counsel, lenders, insurers, tax advisors, maintenance consultants, and pre-buy facilities. And somehow… deals are not getting ea...

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF The first shock is always obvious. Fuel moves. Rates stay high. Headlines hit. Everyone reacts. But markets don’t actually change in the moment of impact. They change in how people respond to it. In this episode of The Truth About the Market , Jason breaks down what’s happening now — the second wave of market stress. No...

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF In aviation, one of the most trusted numbers is often the least reliable. It shows up in listings, broker conversations, tax disputes, financing discussions, and seller expectations. It gets forwarded, quoted, screenshotted, and repeated until it starts to feel like fact. But it isn’t. In this episode of The Truth About...

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF “Low total time” sounds like a selling point. In aviation, it often is. It shows up in listings, broker calls, and buyer wish lists as if those three words settle the question of quality before the airplane is even inspected. But strip away the assumption, and what’s left is a far less comforting truth: airplanes are no...

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Most people in aviation believe they understand the market. They look at comps They reference recent sales They trust the numbers But what if those numbers aren’t as real as they seem? In this episode of The Truth About the Market , Jason pulls back the curtain on one of the most widely accepted—and least questioned—fou...

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF The aviation market doesn’t collapse the way people expect. And right now, it’s being tested by something very real. The escalating war involving Iran has already pushed oil back above $100 a barrel, disrupted key energy infrastructure across the Gulf, and put roughly 20% of global oil supply at risk through the Strait...

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF In aviation, few moments create more tension than the pre-buy inspection. Deals slow down. Emotions rise. And what should be a structured financial process suddenly turns into a test of trust. Buyers worry they’ll miss something. Sellers worry the deal will fall apart. Brokers try to keep everything moving. And in the m...

Podcast: The Truth About the Aviation Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF For years, people talked about the “aircraft market” as if it were a single thing. Values rose together Values fell together And broad headlines were enough to describe what was happening. That era is over. In the first quarter of 2026, aircraft values are no longer moving in one cycle. The market has fragmente...

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Aviation doesn’t collapse because airplanes stop flying. It tightens when capital stops trusting itself. The last time that happened, the trigger wasn’t an AD, a fuel mandate, or an OEM delay. It was confidence. In this episode of The Truth About the Market , Jason pulls the lens back from aircraft models and rate cycle...

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Most aircraft don’t die in a dramatic way. There’s no crash. No grounding order. No public failure. Just a quiet shift in the math. A moment when the market stops valuing the aircraft as a flying machine… and starts valuing it as inventory. In this episode of The Truth About the Market , Jason Zilberbrand breaks down on...

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Most aircraft losses don’t make headlines. There’s no accident report. No dramatic engine failure. No obvious red flag at closing. Just a slow, silent erosion of value… that doesn’t reveal itself until the exit fails. In this episode of The Truth About the Market , Jason Zilberbrand breaks down the invisible structural...

Why the End of 100LL Isn’t About Lead… and Never Was Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF When the FAA formally committed to phasing out 100LL, the announcement sounded calm, technical, and inevitable. But strip away the press language, and what’s left is the largest structural change to piston aviation since the jet age split general aviation in half . In...

Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF In this episode of VREF: The Truth About the Market , Jason addresses a growing and troubling trend in aviation commentary: non-aviators publishing financial conclusions about aircraft maintenance—then disclaiming all responsibility for the consequences . This is not a debate about spreadsheets or abstract models. It’s...