ValueLetters

This extended audio podcast is based on the Morgan Stanley Consilient Observer report “Bayes and Base Rates: How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the Future,” written by Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan and published on February 10, 2026. The report explores how investors can evaluate aggressive financial projections in the artificial intelligence sector using Bayesian reasoning and histo...

This video is based on a Morningstar research report authored by Morningstar analysts and published as part of the Alternative Asset Manager Observer series in 2025. The audio provides a deeper and more detailed walkthrough of the structural forces shaping the US alternative asset management industry. The research describes the current environment as a golden era of growth for alternative managers...

This extended audio edition is based on a Morningstar research report authored by Morningstar analysts and published as part of the Alternative Asset Manager Observer series in 2025. The audio provides a deeper and more detailed walkthrough of the structural forces shaping the US alternative asset management industry. The research describes the current environment as a golden era of growth for alt...

This extended audio edition is based on a December 2025 research report by a Technology Observer at Morningstar, providing an in depth analysis of the emerging quantum computing market and its long term investment implications. The report estimates that quantum computing could ultimately represent a 200 billion dollar annual market at maturity. However, it emphasizes that commercialization remains...

This extended audio edition explores key insights from a foundational research paper on the Competitive Advantage Period CAP, a critical yet frequently overlooked driver of long term corporate valuation and shareholder returns. The research challenges the traditional reliance on accounting metrics and short term financial ratios, arguing that they fail to explain why certain companies generate exc...

This audio edition features Warren Buffett’s July 1961 Semi Annual Letter to the partners of Buffett Partnership Ltd, offering a clear view into the operational evolution and investment discipline behind his growing partnerships. Buffett opens by explaining his decision to communicate with partners twice a year, reinforcing transparency and alignment. He reports that during the first half of 1961...

This extended audio edition presents a detailed exploration of the February 2025 article by Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, CFA, focusing on the central role of expected value in investment decision making. The episode explains why understanding both probabilities and payoffs is essential for long term success, highlighting the distinction between the observable price of a security and its...

This extended audio edition explores selected excerpts from Legg Mason Capital Management, featuring interviews and research papers by Michael Mauboussin. The material offers a deep examination of investment strategy, market behavior, and decision making, emphasizing the importance of a disciplined process in probabilistic environments where short term outcomes can be misleading. The episode expan...

This extended audio edition explores Warren Buffett’s 1960 Partnership Letter, offering a deeper and more detailed examination of his performance philosophy and evolving investment approach during the early years of his partnerships. Buffett reiterates his long term objective of outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average through discipline rather than speculation. The year 1960 stands out as a...

This extended audio edition explores the August 2025 research report by Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, CFA, offering a deeper and more detailed examination of the long term rise in corporate cash holdings among U.S. public companies. Compared with the standard episode, this audio version expands on the underlying data, theory, and structural forces shaping modern corporate balance sheets....

This extended audio episode explores key highlights from Warren Buffett’s 1958 Partnership Letter, offering a deeper and more detailed look into his evolving investment philosophy during the formative years of his career. Buffett reflects on the speculative enthusiasm that dominated the stock market in 1958, observing that many investors were driven by emotion rather than rational analysis. He rei...

This extended audio edition presents key excerpts from Warren Buffett’s 1959 Partnership Letter, offering a deeper and more reflective look into his early investment thinking and portfolio construction. Buffett reviews the stock market environment of 1959, noting that while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 19.9 percent, the headline number masked underlying weakness, as more individual stocks...

This extended audio episode explores key insights from Warren Buffett’s Second Annual Letter to Partners from 1957, offering a deeper and more detailed look into the early foundations of his value investing philosophy. Buffett explains why he viewed the stock market as overvalued in 1957 even after a moderate decline, and how this assessment shaped his cautious and selective investment approach. H...

In this episode of ValueLetters 🎙️, we present an AI-narrative of the 2023 paper by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, exploring why Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) 💰 is one of the most important metrics for investors. We explain how ROIC is calculated, why it matters, and how it links to long-term shareholder returns 📈. We dive into traditional vs adjusted ROIC, the impact of intangible inv...

In this ValueLetters episode, we dive into Li Lu’s remarkable 2024 speech at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management. It is a thoughtful, grounded look at global value investing during a period of deep uncertainty. Li Lu explores the challenges facing China and the broader world, from high youth unemployment and a hesitant private sector to the evolving influence of the United States in...

📜 In this episode of ValueLetters, we explore Warren Buffett’s heartfelt 2025 farewell message to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. Released on November 10, 2025, this rare public note marks a turning point in Berkshire’s history. Buffett begins by announcing major charitable gifts, converting millions of Class B shares and donating them to four family foundations, including The Susan Thompson Buf...

This episode explores key insights from the report Capital Allocation (Published Nov 05 2025) by Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, CFA, examining how effective capital allocation drives long-term shareholder value. The authors argue that capital allocation, the most critical responsibility of any CEO, is often poorly executed due to unclear decision frameworks or misaligned incentives. Drawi...

This episode explores key insights from the report Capital Allocation (Published Nov 05 2025) by Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, CFA, examining how effective capital allocation drives long-term shareholder value. The authors argue that capital allocation, the most critical responsibility of any CEO, is often poorly executed due to unclear decision frameworks or misaligned incentives. Drawi...