UBS On-Air: Market Moves

An assessment of U.S. labor market health following the February employment report, along with a look at the U.S. inflationary environment ahead of next week’s February inflation data. Featured is Andrew Dubinsky, Senior U.S. Economist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Geopolitical crises have generally caused only fleeting market setbacks. But could the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran be among a handful of historic exceptions? Disruptions to oil and gas flows out of the Middle East could be especially damaging for Europe, where reliance on imported energy is high. And this is just part of a historic overhaul of US foreign policy under President Trump that has for...

The US labor market remains the critical driver of the US economy. In 2025, US consumers spent more and saved less of their income to afford tariffs. That requires job security. The US labor market is not strong enough to create significant pay pressures—we are very, very far from 1973—but is good enough to give consumers the confidence to spend.

Against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and fluidity, we discuss how investors should position, along with a review of key catalysts and risks. Plus, key takeaways from the ongoing China Two Sessions. Featured are Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, and Laura Smith, Investment Specialist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Join Ted Galgano and Jeannine Lennon, Senior Municipal Strategists from the UBS Chief Investment Office, for an update on California’s credit fundamentals and an outlook for its municipal issuers.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled US importers could expect to pay a 15% tariff. US President Trump had mentioned this, but endorsement by an administration official adds credibility. The effect is not necessarily to raise inflation but—because tariff composition differs from the illegal IEEPA tariffs—could keep inflation rates higher for longer. Tariff reductions are not passed on to consume...

We examine what’s happening across emerging markets, and review the external and domestic drivers that are supporting the asset class. Plus, an assessment of key investment risks to be mindful of. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump said that the US International Development Finance Corporation will offer to insure tankers in the Gulf, and the US Navy will escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. It is not clear how the former would operate, or how soon the later would happen. Markets seem unenthusiastic about this, with oil prices higher and Asian equities lower. Trump seems politic...

Brian Levitt serves as Chief Global Market Strategist and Head of Strategy & Insights at Invesco. Brian shares his take on a wide range of topics that have recently influenced investor sentiment and moved markets, including geopolitical factors, the impacts of artificial intelligence, the course for monetary policy, and more. We also share an outlook for the U.S. economy and discuss asset allo...

Near term, the rise in oil and gas prices are not yet economically threatening (they would need to stay high for longer). Dollar strength may be less about safety, and must partly reflect the need to buy more dollars to pay for oil, gas, or gold.

Following this weekend’s developments in the Middle East (still ongoing), Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Jay Dobson, Energy and Utilities Equity Strategist Americas, & Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, outline what has taken place, how the days and weeks ahead may unfold, and how global markets are responding. We also touch on how markets historically respond d...

Events in the Gulf make dramatic viewing. The humanitarian cost of war is always horrible. The economics of the current situation are less dramatic. The inflation consequences depend on a sustained increase in oil price, not a spike. The world has become less oil dependent to produce economic activity. However, the US affordability crisis may be affected—perception rather than reality matters to a...

Military action in Iran, major OpenAI funding, and AI-driven layoffs all signal shifting market dynamics. Private companies now rival public ones in size but lack profits, posing risks to public market liquidity. AI is accelerating labor market disruption, supporting our view for Fed rate cuts and the need for diversified, innovation-aligned portfolios.

Solita Marcelli, Global Head of Investment Management at UBS GWM, & Henry McVey, Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation, and CIO of KKR’s Balance Sheet, share their views on the rest of 2026 and beyond, exploring key opportunities and risks across public and private markets. They touch on the impact of artificial intelligence, structural market shifts, the latest developments in private cre...

We discuss how artificial intelligence (AI) is impacting credit markets, along with the drivers behind fixed income sector performance throughout February. Plus, a look at fixed income positioning recommendations. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The 250 years of US innovation publication series highlights examples of how transformational innovation has been an engine of US economic growth since the nation’s founding. Today, we explore the history and application of the semiconductor and microchip. Featured are Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, and Kevin Dennean, US Technology & Communications Services Equity Sector Strategis...

Assorted provinces of the Euro empire will be releasing their flash February consumer price inflation data. There is little expectation for any drama in this data. The overall inflation picture in Europe is benign, and there is no real sense of an affordability crisis—for the most part, European policies have not added to inflation, high frequency purchases like food have modest price increases, a...

Torsten rejoins Jason to exchange thoughts on the health and direction of the U.S. economy, the road ahead for monetary policy (along with the implications of new Fed leadership), AI disruption, and overall market risk considerations. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management

The Bank of Korea left rates unchanged, as every economist predicted. There was forward guidance (regrettably, the Bank of Korea likes the Federal Reserve’s fabled “dot plot” approach, and adopted a refined version). This signaled no change in policy for six months, with relatively positive views on economic growth.

Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, provide a comprehensive update on a range of timely topics, spanning the Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling aftermath and next steps for U.S. trade policy, ongoing nuclear policy negotiations with Iran, and the focuses of President Trump during the State of the Union address. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump’s State of the Union address defended the past year, seeking to reset the economic narrative of the past year. As such, it is not especially market relevant—although so much of a focus on the domestic economy (perhaps in response to recent approval rating numbers) might be important in shaping future policy.

Our conversation focuses on considerations when it comes to quantitative equity investing, including a look a common misconceptions, how strategies help achieve better diversification, along with look at how investors benefit from combining quantitative strategies with other investment styles. Featured is Giuliano De Rossi, Head of Quants Equities, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump delivers a State of the Union address to Congress. Normally, these are not market moving, but investors will look for two things: will there be more tariff threats in the written remarks (which carry more weight than ad lib comments)?; how supportive of Trump will Congressional Republicans be? House Speaker Johnson suggested Congress would not vote to continue tariffs.

After spending the past few weeks fixated on AI disruption risk and macroeconomic data, investors were reminded Friday morning that tariffs are still a factor when the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs. Perhaps lost in that story was the release of Q4 GDP data. We discuss that all and what it means for the investment outlook. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UB...

US trade policy uncertainty increased over the weekend. The Supreme Court ruling against IEEPA tariffs was not unexpected. US President Trump imposing a 10% universal tariff, then raising it to 15%, was less predictable. Details seem limited—will some goods be exempt? What about the revised NAFTA deal and imports from Mexico and Canada? What about trade deals involving lower tariffs (albeit not ne...