UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Markets desperately want to believe in the positive. Focus on the apparent 15-point US plan to end the war has received more attention than Iranian dismissals of this, or the fact that passage through the Strait of Hormuz is minimal. Domestic US politics may be reinforcing the perception that the US wishes to exit the war. The Florida state house district that includes the Mar-A-Lago estate was wo...

Paul drops by the podcast studio to share some considerations for business owners on how to navigate the current geopolitical and macroeconomic environment. We also cover what the next leg of the AI trade could look like, along with assess near-term market implications of the U.S. midterm elections later this year. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment...

A timely catch-up with Shane as we discuss how the U.S.-Iran War might evolve over the near-term, along with where congressional negotiations stand to resolve the Department of Homeland Security funding lapse. Plus, with a slim House GOP majority, we discuss the likelihood of the SAVE America Act being signed into law. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental...

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs the current geopolitical environment, and in turn, how cheap markets might become, and how high energy prices could surge. We also compare how preparation when it comes to ones portfolio, or ones arctic sledge can make all the difference when having to weather a storm.

Investing challenges remain. Markets react to social media posts and stories, not to verifiable information. The lack of information is complicating objective economic assessments. Investors may start looking for leading indicators of the next narrative (whether fake news or real). The Financial Times reports that there were unusually large oil market trades ahead of US President Trump’s social me...

As the U.S.-Iran War enters week four, we assess the impacts to financial markets and the risk of escalation. We also assess the outcome of last week’s FOMC meeting and what it suggests about the road ahead for monetary policy. Plus, a look at portfolio positioning recommendations from CIO. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassid...

Investors have two related problems in pricing risks around the Gulf war. US objectives remain unclear, making it impossible to measure progress (and thus the likely length of the war). Statements from top US administration officials give different and at times contradictory assessments of the war; in the absence of measurable objectives, this is all markets have to respond to. The result is volat...

The Middle East crisis escalated as the US threatened Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides risking economic and infrastructure fallout. This highlights the vulnerability of traditional 60-40 portfolios to inflation shocks. We continue to recommend diversifying with commodities and physical assets, especially as AI-driven trends increase scarcity premiums.

Investment by armchair generals seems to be the fashion. Markets are reacting to political comments about the length of the Gulf war. With uncertainty about US objectives, it is hard to for investors to assess how much more fighting is required to achieve the “end goal”. The economic war may also continue after the US withdraws. US gasoline prices keep rising—average prices may reach USD 4/gallon...

Attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure impacted financial markets. Investors have partially looked through short-term increases in energy prices, assuming consumers and businesses will find the means to adapt. Damaging infrastructure raises the risk of prices staying higher for longer, extending the damage beyond the ability of economies to adapt. US President Trump’s urgent social media posting on...

The Federal Reserve is universally expected to leave policy unchanged. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference excites attention for three reasons. 1. Powell may stay as Fed Chair beyond May, so is a less lame “lame duck” leader. 2. Markets want to know the Fed’s reaction to oil prices and the war. US retail gasoline prices are almost exactly a dollar (35.5%) above 2026 lows, having risen every day fo...

Muni tax-equivalent yields are attractive and credit is resilient but elevated geopolitical uncertainties and weaker technicals in March call for balancing risk and return. We discuss with Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Andrew Dubinsky, Senior U.S. Economist, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Energy infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates has seemingly been hit by Iranian attacks—the UAE recently stopped sharing missile and drone intercept data. This pushed oil prices higher. British Airways has cancelled all flights to Dubai and other regional destinations until June. US President Trump reiterated pleas for help, saying countries were eager to assist (declining to name them). Marke...

We are now in the third week of the US-Iran conflict and investors remain focused on how long it could last and the potential economic consequences. There are other developments relevant for the investment outlook, including economic data and how the Fed incorporates the oil price shock into its decision-making at the FOMC meeting this week. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, from the...

Economic theory often assumes perfect information. This is obviously only true in economic fantasies. Social media and fake news risk distorting real-world market prices. The Gulf war is contributing to this, with governments seeking to influence social media influencers and television reports, or not giving out information at all. This encourages fake news and risks discrediting accurate informat...

Markets face disruption from Middle East tensions and rapid AI advances. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk for global energy, while autonomous AI agents are starting to disrupt digital sectors. Labor market risks are rising, with tech layoffs mounting. We favor diversified equity exposure, especially in the physical economy.

The US government’s views on the Gulf war and its consequences seem to be contradictory. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Strait of Hormuz was not being mined—later clarified by officials to mean that it probably was. US President Trump asserted US strength as an oil producer, then called for emergency intermeeting rate cuts (a crisis measure to prevent imminent recession). Iranian policy is...

The IEA announced it would orchestrate a record release of oil from strategic petroleum reserves. Another three ships were attacked in the Gulf. Oil prices rose over USD100/barrel. In the absence of a coherent US strategy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, investors are likely to focus on Iranian actions as the market driver.

A roundtable discussion on growing global demand and application trends in renewable energy and infrastructure, along with a look at technological innovations and investment considerations associated with these themes. Tiffany Agard, from the UBS CIO Investment Management Sustainable & Impact Investing team, is joined by Jay Dobson, UBS CIO Energy & Utilities Equity Strategist, and Chris L...

The US administration’s current communication strategy is not entirely clear, but the consequence is volatility in financial markets. US Defense Secretary Hesgeth’s claims of escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz were denied. US President Trump’s warning against Iran mining the strait seemingly offered little deterrent. If the strait is mined, oil prices may stay higher for longer. IEA pr...

Join Ed Tran, Portfolio Manager with the Private Client U.S. Equity Team at UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 18.02.26

US President Trump declared the war with Iran was “very complete, pretty much”. The vagueness of the war objectives and Trump’s tendency to reverse more dramatic policy positions meant markets had anticipated signals the US would seek to end the war soon – but investors limited conviction. The statement provoked a market reaction, though the lack of confirmation from other administration officials...

South Korea announced a price cap for some petroleum products, as crude oil prices rose above USD 100 a barrel. An oil price shock does not have to be a price and growth shock— the pain may be taken in fiscal policy. The G7 is apparently considering an emergency use of strategic oil reserves, but that is a temporary fix.

AI adoption and capabilities are accelerating at a super-exponential rate, reshaping digital platforms and threatening traditional moats. AI agents are changing how consumers interact with the economy, and job-light growth is a possibility. We prefer sectors less exposed to immediate AI disruption and stress broad diversification.

Nic Janvier serves as Head of Equities for North America at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. Nic shares his take on the current landscape for U.S. equities, including performance drivers, sector preferences, and risk considerations. We also share an outlook for U.S. equities, reflect on the Q4 earnings season, and touch on ex-US equities. Host: Daniel Cassidy Recorded on 02.24.26.