UBS On-Air: Market Moves

A fireside chat which covers the current market and macro environment, including thoughts around the US economy, the Fed, the upcoming US election, and positioning across fixed income and real estate. Featured is Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Policy interests markets, but few voters. Emotion tends to be more important in elections. The global rise of economic nationalism is rooted in emotion, but is also a policy with real world consequences. Yesterday, former US President Trump pledged to use corporate tax cuts and consumer tax increases (via tariffs) to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US. Who would do those jobs with near full e...

It’s Climate Week in New York! Amantia drops by the studio to outline the focus items of Climate Week, this as part of the annual United Nations General Assembly. We also discuss the implications of US election outcomes to climate policy, what’s in focus as it relates to ESG at the ‘State Level’, and the historical performance of sustainable investments during both Republican and Democrat administ...

China’s central bank cut interest rates and reserve requirements, eased home ownership regulation, and proposed support for equity markets. The measures were announced with considerable dramatic effect, presumably aiming to ensure China’s officially reported GDP data meets the official GDP target.

We kick off the trading week by reviewing the latest UBS House View and positioning recommendations. Jason also weighs whether the Fed’s aggressive commencement of easing signifies a sustained soft landing on the horizon, along with the newly in focus debate over the terminal Fed funds rate. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassi...

There are a few Federal Reserve speakers scheduled, freed from the self-imposed silence that precedes a policy decision. Fed President Bostic, talking specifically on the economic outlook, is likely to attract attention. Markets want to hear that the Fed is scrambling to catch up with falling inflation, not that there is anything wrong with the economy. Fed President Kashkari is speaking on childc...

In the wake of the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in four years, the CIO fixed income team spends time reflecting on the policy shift, what to look out for in the months ahead, and what an easing policy environment means for fixed income assets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry M...

US politics keeps resurrecting ideas from the 1970s—most recently questioning central bank independence. Some economists argue that Federal Reserve Chair Powell is the worst central bank head since Fed Chair Burns (who served US President Nixon). Burns was independent in theory, but not in practice. Former US President Trump suggested this week’s rate cut was political in nature, and that the Fed...

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reacts to yesterday’s decision by the FOMC to cut interest-rates for the first time in four years, and what this policy move might mean for the economy and markets. We also touch on the implications to the yield-curve, along with global environment for debt, inflation, and market preferences.

The US rate-cutting cycle began with a 50bp cut—the sort of move normally reserved for an economic emergency. The US has near full employment, steady consumption, and rising real wages. This is no economic emergency. It is not plausible to claim Federal Reserve Chair Powell knows something economists do not (especially after yesterday’s press conference). The fact that a Fed governor dissented for...

Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, for thoughts and reflections on the outcome of the September FOMC meeting. Jason also speaks to the market response, and shares CIO’s positioning recommendations. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Finally, several months later than it should, the Federal Reserve will cut rates today. Stressing data dependency when data are not dependable has led to this unnecessary delay. The Fed has been lucky the damage has been limited—middle-income borrowers locked in mortgages at absurdly low rates, and real rates for borrowers (deflated by income growth) have not risen too much.

Our conversation focuses on considerations around tax management, namely if the capital gains tax rates go higher, does it make sense to harvest capital gains at the lower tax rate today. We also review additional tax changes being proposed that investors should be mindful of. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, and Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, UBS Chief Investme...

As Election Day in the US quickly approaches, Paul drops by the studio to outline the economic agendas of both candidates, and reviews the implications of certain outcomes to global entrepreneurs and business owners. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

It is hedonism day in the US, with the release of August retail sales data. Two limits to the data. This is a value measure, and US goods prices have been falling for four months now. This underrepresents consumption at a time when people are still favoring fun over goods. Instagram reels of holidays and congealing restaurant meals cost money (and of that spending, only the congealing restaurant m...

We begin by updating on the second assassination attempt of former President Trump, and where that investigation stands. We also discuss where negotiations stand as it relates a government funding bill, bipartisan legislative initiatives aimed at China, along with a look at the polls a week out from the recent Presidential debate. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, G...

The big event this week is the anticipated commencement of Fed rate cuts. Joining us to discuss outcome expectations, potential market response, and why focusing on the size of the cuts is not the most important issue, is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Market attention is focused on the Federal Reserve meeting this week. A rate cut is clearly expected (and long overdue), as inflation pressures continue to fade in the US. However, a rate cut of more than 25bps seems unlikely—while the Fed is late in cutting rates, a larger move might be taken as a sign of panic. Higher frequency cuts rather than larger cuts seem most likely.

As we close out another trading week, Matt drops by the podcast to reflect on recent equity market return drivers, along with recaps this week’s inflation data. We also outline current views on equity positioning, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US has more people employed, working longer hours, for more pay. Last Friday’s employment report essentially summarized a soft economic landing. There was evidence of slower hiring (without firing) in the employment details, also consistent with a soft landing. While the Federal Reserve is late in cutting rates, the delay has not yet done much economic damage.

The team discusses takeaways from the first presidential debate between Vice President Harris and former President Trump, CIO’s latest views on the state of the race, and investment implications. Featured speakers are Jason Chandler, Head of GWM Americas, Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, and John Savercool, Head of the UBS US Office of Public Policy.

Tune in monthly to hear from UBS Asset Management’s multi-asset team for thoughts on the global macro environment, and markets.

The European Central Bank is expected to ease rates a quarter point today, as it continues its policy of following inflation lower. Seen over a proper time frame this is not properly a stimulus, as it is more focused on stabilizing real rates. Lagarde’s press conference will hopefully signal a steady pace of rate cuts to come.

Our conversation revisits the progress of energy transitions across the globe, as growing global energy demand and regional geopolitics are making transitions more complex. We also spend time highlighting the technological innovations at work, along with review how to invest in these energy transitions. Featured is Jay Dobson, Energy & Utilities Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. H...

This week on the Viewpoints podcast, Burkhard returns following a late-summer hiatus to bring us up to speed on how the global market and macro landscapes have evolved over the past month, and what to look out for in the months ahead. We also spend time discussing how investors should factor politics into investment decision making, along with take reading on the health of economies across the glo...