UBS On-Air: Market Moves

US September consumer price inflation should show a slower rate of growth in the headline measure. Now that the Federal Reserve has finally started its easing cycle, this matters a little less to markets, but it is still important. Critically, middle-income inflation is running at about half the headline rate, and that gives the group an important degree of spending power.

On this episode, Jason and Ken meet in-studio to discuss investment considerations and opportunities across Artificial Intelligence, private markets, and real estate. They also spend time exchanging thoughts on the health of the US economy, the road ahead or monetary policy, and more. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Ken Caplan, G...

The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due, and should be fascinating. This meeting cut interest rates by 50bps, and had the first Fed governor dissenting in over two decades. Dissents may possibly be managed as part of the theater of the Fed—a single high profile dissent may mask wider disquiet at the scale of the rate cut. Certainly Fed Chair Powell’s dependence on dodgy data is loo...

October House View live conversation, featuring insights from Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, CIO Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist, CIO Americas. Recorded on Oct 3.

New York Federal Reserve President Williams—a genuine economist, who should thus be listened to —signaled that the Fed is happy with the state of the US economy and that two 25bp rate cuts this year would be appropriate. This clearer guidance for the future is a big improvement on Fed Chair Powell’s inept dependence on dodgy data.

On this week’s Snapshot, Jason reflects on the latest round of jobs data and weighs what a better-than-expected growth outlook means for the Fed’s monetary policy course into 2025. We also spend time outlining CIO’s current allocation views and guidance. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US employment report last week was wrong, because the data always is. However, the general direction of US employment signals an economy very far from “recession”. However, voters do not think about abstract concepts like GDP, have a distorted view of price levels, and believe that pay increases are due to them working harder. While the reality is people have a higher standard of living for th...

As we close out the trading week, Brian and Paul weigh in on the latest jobs data, and what it means for the health of the US economy, along with the course ahead for monetary policy. Plus, we review CIO’s current allocation recommendations, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UB...

It is US employment report Friday, the monthly celebration of dubious quality data that always thrills markets. Looking at the broad picture of the US labor market, the position is what it has been all year. Firms are slower to hire, but not keen to fire. This gives job security, and supports consumer spending patterns.

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard turns focus to the notable rally across Chinese markets in recent time, and speaks to how investors should interpret the move, along with shares investment lessons to consider.

The economic calendar is strewn with irrelevancies in the form of business sentiment opinion polls. For-profit polls crave the oxygen of publicity, but neither their profit motives nor the attendant media attention are guarantees that they reflect economic reality. Partisan bias, inaccurate answers to questions, and falling response rates are all challenges to the usefulness of surveys (of any kin...

Hear from Mark Haefele, GWM Chief Investment Officer, Kiran Ganesh, Global Head of Investment Communications, Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation for CIO Americas, and Carolina Corvalan, Fixed Income Strategist.

Markets have responded to escalating violence in the Middle East. Overnight missile attacks by Iran against Israel differed from those in April—there was less warning, and faster missiles were used. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has pledged retaliation. Investors have seen this as a more serious escalation, and oil prices have risen. However, even at higher levels oil prices are still near the...

With the Fed’s easing cycle underway, we examine how central banks across the EM landscape are moving toward accommodative policies, and the implications for investors. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US vice-presidential debate is more political entertainment than market relevant. Investors are interested in policy details, and election probabilities. Policy details are unlikely (neither campaign wants to give their opponents ammunition). Vice-presidential debates rarely affect the main political race. The question is whether this debate generates the same level of TikTok content as the pr...

As the third quarter concludes, we take stock of the US economy and financial markets heading into the fourth quarter, as well as other geopolitical matters, along with developments within China. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Politics can dominate headlines without creating meaningful consequence for financial markets. Escalating military action in the Middle East is an example. Investors are likely to focus on consequences for oil prices and safe-haven flows, which seem muted for now. The success of the far-right in Austria’s weekend elections may be a larger investor concern. The global trend toward prejudice politic...

Brad rejoins the podcast to discuss the investment thesis behind CIO’s most preferred view of the US financials sector. We cover a performance update, and outlook, along with a look at related investment themes, risk considerations, and sub-sector preferences. Featured is Brad Ball, Financials Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We close out a busy week by recapping the annual UN General Assembly in New York, how an agreement was reached to avoid a shutdown of the US government, along with a look at the latest developments on the Presidential campaign trail. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affair US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

With the relaunch of the Municipal Market Guide publication series, Sudip drops by the studio to discuss performance trends across the muni market, along with a near-term outlook, and positioning views. We also spend some time spotlighting the Private Higher Education sector. Featured is Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As September quickly draws to a close, Burkhard reflects on how this traditionally turbulent month for investors has not proven as such here in 2024. With that, Burkhard considers scenarios, or unexpected possibilities, that could serve as ‘the next surprise’ for both equity and bond investors. Plus, thoughts on the Cycling World Championship in Zurich, Switzerland.

Yesterday’s US GDP revisions offered several lessons to investors. The tendency for many countries to revise economic activity frequently, significantly, and positively is a reminder that real-time data lacks precision and data dependency is not a proper policy framework. Someone should attempt to explain that to Federal Reserve Chair Powell. The 2022 “technical recession” (a media term, not an ec...

In the wake of new economic stimulus measures announced by China’s central bank, Xingchen Yu drops by to review the announced measures, what they’re aimed at, along with both the economic and investment implications that investors should be mindful of. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Leslie and Barry rejoin for a deeper dive look into the implications of the Fed’s commencement of policy easing to fixed income assets, in particular credit sectors. We also cover CIO’s broader thinking when it comes to positioning across fixed income, in anticipation of further easing measures by the Fed to be implemented through year-end. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Incom...

The US offers the “final” revisions to second-quarter GDP alongside annual data revisions. Declining real-time date reliability means that revisions matter to economists. US growth data is generally underestimated quite a bit, in the early releases. This problem may increase in the future—for instance, budget cuts mean that labor market data is likely to become less reliable.