UBS On-Air: Market Moves

We close out the week by reflecting on the latest jobs numbers and what the results indicate about the health of the US labor market. We also review this past week’s notable data releases, including a look at the Fed’s Beige Book. Plus, a preview of what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The US May employment report is due, with the regular reminders that this data has become increasingly unreliable in recent years, and average earnings are not wages. This month’s data will correct errors that crept into last month’s data. Signs of weakness in restaurant and leisure travel sectors mean fewer lower paid workers may be employed, raising average earnings without affecting wages. But,...

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard outlines the investment case for global markets to continue their climb higher and provides a performance update on some of CIO’s investment themes. We also cover considerations for investors when it comes to climate change-related investment risks, along with reflect on the potential impacts of Japan’s fiscal deficit to global markets.

A total of 52 out of 52 surveyed economists expect a quarter point ECB rate reduction today. How could so many economists possibly be wrong?

Rich rejoins the conversation with Jason to exchange thoughts around the evolution of US trade policy, the current market environment, the health of the US economy, and portfolio positioning recommendations. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Richard Bernstein, Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Richar...

US President Trump’s mega-donor Musk was strongly critical of the “big, beautiful bill” currently before Congress. The bill contains many things markets are worried about. Musk’s opposition may embolden some Republican senators to oppose parts of the bill (Musk has more money than Trump, but their recent political forays have not been universally successful).

May was a good month for the markets, though there are many questions that investors are asking as we enter June, such as the fate of tariffs, the outcome of trade negotiations, the status of the One Big Beautiful Bill, and what impact the tariffs will have on the economy. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, from the UBS Chief Investment Office, weighs in on those questions, along with...

Reports in Washington suggest US President Trump may talk directly with China’s President Xi later this week (after several days of more heated rhetoric between the US and China over trade). As Trump has been anxious for the call, and China has not, this may hint at more US retreats over trade taxes as a concession to bring China to the telephone.

US President Trump doubled taxes on US consumers of imported steel on Friday, and (so far) has not retreated from that tax increase. Trump reacted angrily when confronted with the Financial Times acronym “TACO”, and the implication that markets expect Trump to reverse policy rapidly. Investors may worry that Trump persists with these taxes, not because of some economic objective but instead as an...

We close out the trading week by reviewing the latest developments surrounding US trade policy, recapping notable macro data releases (including a look at the FOMC meeting minutes) - plus, a preview of the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

There is yet more uncertainty in the US economy. US President Trump appealed the ruling that their trade taxes were illegal. While this is decided, the taxes stay. There are thus three layers of uncertainty. Will the taxes survive? If they are illegal, will US companies and consumers get refunds? And are trade taxes today actually being collected? There is also uncertainty around how US companies...

There has been no letup in the trade drama, with a US federal court striking down much of President Trump’s recent tariff hikes. That followed a sudden pivot in trade talks with the European Union - with the threat of a 50% tariff to an acceleration of negotiations all within the space of a few days. So what have we learnt about Trump’s strategy? What does this all mean for the EU and Switzerland?...

A timely review of overnight trade developments, plus a look at positioning recommendations within EM equities, and thoughts on the dollar. We also touch on how investors can position using EM and international equities in the context of portfolio diversification. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US trade court ruled that about half of US President Trump’s trade tax increases are illegal. Markets reacted positively, but the US has not been reset to its factory settings.

Equity markets seemingly rallied on optimistic comments from US President Trump around trade. So much focus on the words of one individual is unusual. Trump has the power to limit future economic damage from new trade taxes, but cannot undo the damage of past policy swings. For example, comments in yesterday’s sentiment data highlighted that companies are delaying decisions in the face of policy u...

Until recently, gold’s rally seemed unstoppable. In an environment where perceived safe havens were scarce, gold stood out. However, in recent weeks, investor sentiment has shifted as geopolitical tensions eased. Does this mean gold’s rally has come to an end? Not necessarily, according to our commodities experts, Wayne Gordon, CIO APAC Head of Investment Advisory & Content, and Giovanni Staun...

The US long weekend was marked by aggressive policies and then a retreat, but that still leaves its mark on financial markets. The US dollar remains near its recent lows against major currencies. Investors are concerned that the retreats may not be comprehensive, and that economic behavior will still have to adjust to accommodate wild policy swings.

US President Trump has retreated from their threat to aggressively tax US consumers of European products, delaying the suggested 50% tariff to July. These retreats are so frequent that investors should rationally expect them. So why do markets still react to the initial announcements, as happened last Friday?

Administration comments suggest US President Trump is willing to increase taxes on US consumers of EU-made products, if the EU does not make unilateral concessions on tariffs. Markets are unlikely to place too much weight on these threats given the president’s tendency to rapidly retreat on such issues, but the situation does (again) increase policy uncertainty.

US President Trump labelled the budget proposal trying to pass Congress a “Big Beautiful Bill.” BBB might be an unfortunate alliteration given concerns about the US credit rating. The details of the budget are constantly changing, so their effects are hard to judge, but the broad impact is to push the US further along a rising debt path. Bond investors are less than happy.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the latest with respect to trade, tariffs, and the markets, along with previews what investors can expect in 2Q25, and considerations when it comes to positioning (after a market correction). Plus, thoughts on the current supply and demand relationship of oil.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the latest with respect to trade, tariffs, and the markets, along with previews what investors can expect in 2Q25, and considerations when it comes to positioning (after a market correction). Plus, thoughts on the current supply and demand relationship of oil.

US President Trump urged Congress to pass the “big, beautiful” budget. An International Monetary Fund (IMF) official urged the US to consider its unsustainable debt level, which this budget will likely make worse. The redistribution effects of the tariffs, spending cuts, and tax cuts does have long term implications. In the short term, the deficit’s size is likely the focus.

The team spotlights the factors behind the recent rally in munis, along with improving technicals, and the return of inflows. We also review the House Ways & Means committee tax plan, and spotlight developments surrounding sanctuary city funding. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, & Ted Galgano, Municipal Strategi...

Mark Axelowitz, Managing Director and UBS Private Wealth Advisor, and Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, hosted a special fireside chat on the outlook for the world, economy, and value investing with Bill Ackman, Founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, and Ryan Israel, Chief Investment Officer at Pershing Square Capital Management