UBS On-Air: Market Moves

We live in a world of political polarization and soundbite economics. That encourages sensationalism. Deckchair generals will offer extreme opinions on the US attacks on Iran. Both supporters and opponents the attacks are likely to dramatize events. Investors should be cautious of knee-jerk overreactions.

UBS WM Chief Economist Paul Donovan discusses the current hostilities between Israel and Iran and what they might mean for the global economy and markets. Why have geopolitical crises historically dominated the headlines, but faded so quickly from the attention of investors? And are there tectonic shifts in global politics that investors can’t afford to ignore? Paul is joined by co-hosts Christoph...

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard outlines potential scenarios as to how developments in the Middle East involving Israel and Iran could evolve, and how to prepare your portfolio accordingly. We also touch on what has been a busy week for the Fed, and other global central banks.

European powers begin nuclear talks with Iran, and the US has signaled that it does not intend to decide on military strikes against Iran for two weeks. That means two weeks of uncertainty for financial markets, but investors are still inclined to see the Middle East conflict as a local, not a global, economic issue.

The US Federal Deserve did as expected yesterday—nothing. The Fed’s dilemma can be summed up by a comment from US President Trump (in a different context) “I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do”. The uncertainty about trade taxes, fiscal policy, and the reactions of US companies and consumers means (as Fed Chair Powell noted) there can be very little certainty about the future path of interest...

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard outlines potential scenarios as to how developments in the Middle East involving Israel and Iran could evolve, and how to prepare your portfolio accordingly. We also touch on what has been a busy week for the Fed, and other global central banks.

Learn about how retirees can manage taxes when withdrawing from their accounts in retirement to ultimately improve their after-tax growth potential. Featured are Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, & Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s US data flurry gave hints about trade tax effects. Headline retail sales were weakened by poor auto sales. Some consumers bought cars early, anticipating trade taxes, and so did not show up at car dealerships in May. Import prices rose, suggesting that foreign companies were not absorbing trade taxes (so US companies and consumers will pay). Japan’s May trade data did show a 4.7% m/m d...

We examine recent muni market performance, along with look at the investment case for the asset class against a backdrop of macro uncertainties. We also spotlight CIO’s risk assessment framework of local government obligors. Featured is Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, and Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump left the G7 summit a day early. Their departure does not change much of substance—the US was resisting a joint statement on Iran-Israel. However, there is symbolism about Trump’s willingness to cooperate with others. An executive order to implement some of the UK trade agreement was signed, but little progress seems to have been made with Japan.

We begin the week by covering the conflict involving Israel and Iran, along with the potential market impacts (including to oil prices). Plus, a preview of this week’s G-7 summit in Canada, along with the FOMC meeting. We conclude by outlining portfolio considerations when it comes to navigating geopolitical and policy risk. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Inv...

Xingchen rejoins the conversation to share an update on US-China trade negotiations, along with a look at the health of China’s economy and markets. We also touch on considerations when it comes to global diversification for portfolios. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The ongoing exchange of missile strikes between Iran and Israel this weekend has not had a major impact on financial markets. The severity of Israel’s initial strike against Iran was unexpected and caused a reaction. Further market moves would be justified only if there were expectations of even more disruption to energy supplies or shipping lanes.

Shane drops by to share the latest developments out of the Middle East involving Israel and Iran, along with notable domestic developments spanning progress on the One Big Beautiful Bill, and Federal response to recent occurrences of civil unrest. Plus, thoughts on the outcome of this week’s round of US-China trade talks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Government...

We close out another trading week by recapping US-China trade talks, the latest round of US inflation-data, along with other macro points of interest. Plus, thoughts on US equities at current levels, equity positioning, and a preview of what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

The scale of Israel’s air strikes against Iran were not anticipated by financial markets (US President Trump having suggested a deal with Iran was close, just yesterday). As a result, the oil price has had the largest spike since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The economic disruption may well be contained—the starting point was quite a weak oil market, given expectations of a US growth slowdown.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard outlines the factors behind the recovery of US equities, along with what could drive further momentum from here. We also cover why European markets may not have an “unfair advantage” when it comes a lower rate environment, when compared to the Fed holding steady for now. Plus, thoughts on the recent performance of South Korea’s KOSPI-Index.

Yesterday’s US consumer price inflation data showed, as expected, faint hints at the effects of trade taxes and clearer examples of weak demand. The declining number of people wishing to visit the US helped weaken air fares. Goods where inventory is held for longer (like autos) avoided tariff effects for now. Imported goods with shorter inventory times—like bananas—saw price surges. Large consumer...

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard outlines the factors behind the recovery of US equities, along with what could drive further momentum from here. We also cover why European markets may not have an “unfair advantage” when it comes a lower rate environment, when compared to the Fed holding steady for now. Plus, thoughts on the recent performance of South Korea’s KOSPI-Index.

A special edition fireside chat with Joe Tsai, Chairman of Alibaba, a global leader in e-commerce and artificial intelligence. Following introductory remarks from Mike Ebert, Head IB Americas at UBS, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Global Head CIO Equity at UBS, moderates a conversation, delving into topics like the future of AI and the dynamics of the China Tech market.

US President Trump has declared trade talks with China “not easy”. There may be a difference between the administration’s perception of its bargaining position and reality. With the 90-day deadline to do deals approaching, no deals have yet been made—and the UK trade agreement has not come into effect. There are suggestions that Trump will retreat from export restrictions on chips in exchange for...

Jason rejoins in-studio to weigh in on a variety of factors that have (or have the potential to) move markets, including last week’s labor market data, and this week’s round of trade talks between the US and China. Plus, thoughts on the impact on the Trump-Musk split to the progression of Trump 2.0 economic policies, along with guidance when it comes to positioning for the current environment. Fea...

Media coverage of events in Los Angeles has been intense. There are economic and financial market consequences, but domestic and international investors may react differently. Domestic investors’ views will be shaped by their chosen cable news channel, and potentially by fake news on social media. International investors’ perceptions of risk will be affected by their own experiences of protest, ci...

Kurt rejoins the conversation in studio to reflect on the latest developments surrounding US trade policy, along with how markets have reacted - plus, thoughts on how trade negotiations (most notably with China) may evolve in the weeks and months ahead. We also discuss investor concern stemming from the US fiscal outlook, and the path forward for the US budgetary situation. Featured is Kurt Reiman...

We check back in on the emerging markets by discussing the headwinds facing the US dollar, and what it all means for emerging market assets. Plus, a spotlight on investment considerations surrounding Argentina. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy