UBS On-Air: House View

The US stock market fell sharply on Friday as investors scrutinized potential returns on the AI investment cycle. While the 3Q earnings season is demonstrating that underlying AI demand remains robust, investors are demanding clearer evidence that rising AI investment will generate adequate returns. We believe investors should retain AI exposure but reduce excessive single-stock concentration, man...

Concerns about AI capital spending and renewed geopolitical risks have weighed on equities. But resilient economic growth, robust demand for AI infrastructure, and strong earnings continue to support the equity outlook. Investors should stay invested and maintain a well-diversified portfolio.

Accelerating cloud revenue and continued investment indicate that AI demand remains robust. We believe AI remains a key market growth engine, though investors should favor quality and manage concentrated positions.

The Fed is likely to tighten policy further in the coming months despite an expected hold today. But we think market pricing remains too hawkish. Investors should maintain diversified equity exposure while adding selectively to quality bonds and gold.

The latest tech-led advance reflects continued confidence in AI demand, but high expectations and company-specific risks strengthen the case for looking beyond a narrow group of market leaders. We favor diversified equity exposure that includes Power and resources, Longevity, and opportunities outside the US.

This week we take a look at whether the Fed will remain patient as energy costs sustain inflation risks. If earnings can support further equity gains beyond the AI trade, and whether European earnings resilience outweigh fiscal and policy risks.

Continued attacks in the Middle East have pushed Brent crude above USD 111/bbl, adding to concerns over energy supplies and inflation. But the global energy system’s capacity to adapt, together with portfolio exposure to broad commodities, should help investors manage volatility while staying invested.

Questions around AI profitability, elevated rates, and geopolitical tensions may keep markets volatile through the earnings season. Yet we remain constructive on equities and expect AI-related growth to support corporate earnings. Investors can complement diversified equity exposure with structured strategies, select hedge funds, and commodities.

US mega-cap technology companies' earnings should provide fresh evidence of the strength of cloud growth, digital advertising, and AI adoption. Investors will also look for clearer signs of monetization and returns on investment. We remain constructive on the AI opportunity and favor diversified exposure across hyperscalers, high-quality infrastructure beneficiaries, and defensive tech firms.

Funding pressures are testing the growth model of specialized cloud infrastructure providers, but demand for AI compute remains robust. Resilient semiconductor earnings and rising GPU rental rates support our positive view on the structural growth of AI. We favor well-funded hyperscalers, high-quality beneficiaries of AI spending, and defensive tech names.

While bond market volatility may persist, elevated yields and the potential for less Fed tightening than markets expect strengthen the outlook for fixed income. We continue to rate fixed income as Attractive and see quality bonds as a source of income and portfolio stability.

US inflation accelerated more than expected in September, increasing expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. But we do not expect a measured tightening cycle to undermine the positive outlook for US assets. We remain positive on equities and fixed income.

A sharp sell-off in semiconductor stocks has reignited questions about the durability of the AI trade. But with earnings expectations still strong, cloud growth accelerating, and valuations becoming more attractive, we take this as more of a reset of expectations than a break in the AI thesis.

Higher energy prices and geopolitical risks may fuel near-term volatility, but AI demand, a healthy cyclical economy, and resilient consumer spending should support another strong quarter for S&P 500 profits.

Geopolitical and macro uncertainties are driving near-term commodity volatility, but tight supply and durable demand remain supportive of the outlook. We see broad commodity exposure as a source of returns, diversification, and portfolio resilience.

Recent adoption, semiconductor revenue, and cloud-growth data continue to point to healthy AI demand. While volatility may persist as the trade matures, investors should maintain diversified exposure while becoming more selective.

US stocks eased from record highs as elevated Treasury yields, rising oil prices, and renewed geopolitical risks weighed on sentiment. But waiting for these concerns to fade could mean missing further market gains. We believe investors should remain positioned for long-term growth through a well-diversified portfolio.

The S&P 500 reached a record high despite ongoing market risks. We think AI investment, broadening earnings growth, and a resilient US economy should support further gains. Investors should maintain diversified equity exposure across sectors and regions.

The Nasdaq reached a record high despite elevated Treasury yields, but the rally remains concentrated in a narrow group of large technology companies. Investors should maintain diversified core equity exposure as they position for further upside.

Lower oil prices and softer US jobs data have reduced immediate concerns about further Federal Reserve tightening, but geopolitical risks and elevated bond yields could keep markets volatile. We recommend positioning for further equity gains while diversifying and managing concentration risk.

The sell-off in US Treasuries reflects growing concern that inflation and policy rates could remain elevated. While further disinflation, easing energy pressures, or policy intervention may slow the rise in yields, volatility is likely to remain high in the near term. Investors should calibrate duration and credit risk carefully.

Long-dated Treasury yields have risen to multi-decade highs. But resilient growth, robust earnings, and accelerating AI adoption should help equities absorb the valuation pressure from higher yields. We continue to recommend positioning for further equity gains through broad sector and regional diversification.

Higher interest rates can be a headwind for many investments, but they can also create a more favorable environment for hedge funds. A higher cost of capital increases differences among companies, economies, and securities, giving active managers more opportunities to identify relative leaders and laggards.

Potential delays at a major US data center have intensified scrutiny of AI infrastructure financing. We don’t see this as a risk to compute demand itself, but if it widens, it could affect deployment timelines, funding costs, and investment returns. We continue to favor diversified thematic exposure to both the AI and Power and resources opportunities across public and private markets, with an emp...

Strong US activity, higher oil prices, and a weak Treasury auction pushed the 10-year yield above 5.1% and weighed on equities. But we expect less Fed tightening than markets currently price, while resilient growth and robust earnings should help risk assets absorb measured rate increases.