UBS On-Air: House View

The path toward a lasting peace deal between the US and Iran is proving to be bumpy, with President Trump saying further negotiations with Tehran were a "waste of time." The most effective method to navigate near-term volatility remains diversification, in our view. But with a diplomatic solution still likely, we expect global equities to move higher, bond yields to decline, and broad comm...

As investors assess the next phase of the AI growth story, we believe diversifying equity exposure remains key. We expect the next leg of stock gains to be marked by a broadening of market leadership.

We remain constructive on the AI theme, but the market narrative is gradually shifting from strong near-term growth to the durability of spending beyond 2027. Investors should ensure diversification and selectivity in their exposure.

Despite the recent decline in commodity prices, we believe fundamentals should provide support in the coming months. We also believe broad commodity exposure offers diversification, inflation hedging, and downside protection in a portfolio context.

Markets are looking to June’s payrolls today for clues on the Fed’s interest rate path after Chair Kevin Warsh offered little indication. We maintain the view that current market conviction around Fed rate hikes is too aggressive and see an opportunity to add to short- and medium-maturity quality bonds.

Global equities delivered a strong performance in the second quarter, and we think the momentum can continue in the coming months. The next phase of the rally should, in our view, see a broadening of market leadership.

Investors have shifted some capital back into health care amid tech sector volatility, seeking both stability and growth. Recent policy changes around GLP-1s and breakthrough therapies are fueling new optimism for the sector’s outlook in the coming months.

We continue to like the semiconductor complex of the AI story, but recent market volatility has pointed to certain risks worth monitoring. The key for investors remains diversification, both within and beyond AI.

While oil may stay under pressure in the near term, we expect prices to recover over the coming months, as the normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the recovery of shut-in production may prove slower than expected. We continue to see value in broad commodity exposure in a portfolio context.

Gold has fallen to its lowest level in nearly eight months, but we think this offers an opportunity for underallocated investors to build strategic exposure. We believe the investment case for gold remains positive, as we believe the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in the near term, and the US dollar should weaken as the year progresses. Gold has also historically provided diversification benefits...

Risk sentiment weakened amid pressure on semiconductor stocks, but we believe the recent correction should be seen in the context of the strong rally in recent months. While we remain confident in the AI growth story, we also expect that the next phase of stock gains will come from a broader range of opportunities.

We view current market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in the near term as too aggressive, as inflation should moderate in the coming months, growth may soften, and broader changes at the Fed could slow down policy reaction. We continue to see an attractive risk-return profile for short- and medium-duration quality bonds.

The window has swung back open for new IPOs and secondary offerings, with share issuance likely to reach a record high in dollar terms this year. But we do not think this will be challenging to absorb given the growth of the overall equity market.

The AI rally has been one of the defining features of markets in the first half of the year. While we think it can drive further gains, we also believe the rally will continue to broaden across the rest of the market. We think investors should stay invested, while keeping diversification at the center of portfolio construction

The FOMC held the policy rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75%, but the combination of higher inflation projections, a hawkish distribution of rate forecasts, and the removal of forward guidance points to a restrictive-for-longer policy stance.

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady today, but markets will be watching Kevin Warsh's debut press conference as chair and his outlook on inflation and rates. We maintain the view that the Fed should resume easing next year, benefiting short- and medium-duration quality bonds.

An unexpected US intervention shows how quickly AI policy can shift from theory to tangible risk. With this year’s equity rally directly linked to AI demand expectations, we examine how a tighter US regulatory approach could impact AI spending, talent, and model leadership.

The US and Iran have reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with official signing scheduled later this week. Volatility may persist in the near term as markets assess the implementation and durability of the deal, but we maintain our view that resilient growth and robust earnings should continue to drive stocks higher. We continue to recommend investors hold a diversified portfolio a...

Market swings may persist as geopolitics, rates, and funding questions collide, but the underlying buildout driving AI-linked equities remains intact, in our view. Investors should stay invested in the AI opportunity, while rotating exposure toward areas with clearer demand visibility and stronger earnings support.

US stocks fell to their lowest level in over a month as a tech-led sell-off deepened, the war in Iran showed little signs of ending, and accelerating inflation intensified Federal Reserve hike worries. But we think near-term Fed hikes remain unlikely, AI fundamentals are still strong, and a path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz should become clearer. Investors should stay positioned for equit...

US stocks fell on Tuesday after an earlier rise on optimism about an imminent US-Iran deal. While the path toward a resolution is likely to be uneven, our base case is that diplomacy ultimately prevails, allowing investors to refocus on resilient economic fundamentals and robust earnings growth in both the US and Europe.

Health care has traditionally been viewed as a defensive sector, but investors should not ignore the innovative growth opportunities it offers. Supported by technological advances and a structural shift in demographics, we favor global health care and hold a positive outlook on the Longevity theme.

US equities and bonds fell in tandem on Friday, as concerns over potential Fed rate hikes, equity issuance by Meta, Broadcom's disappointing AI revenue outlook, and a reversal in semiconductor stocks weighed on markets. However, after the recent rally, a pullback was expected. Despite renewed worries, we expect the rally to resume.

Shane returns to share some reflections on President Trump’s policy remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week. This includes a look at where the Trump administration’s pursuit of Greenland stands, and what next-steps could look like in terms of negotiations with Denmark and the broader European Union. Plus, a look at where efforts stand on Capitol Hill to avoid a partial...

As we close out the series for 2025, Shane drops by for a Capitol Hill roundup as we cover developments surrounding Congressional votes on healthcare legislation, and the National Defense Authorization Act. Plus, some thoughts on renewed bipartisan efforts to ban Congressional stock trading. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs U.S. Host: Daniel Ca...