True Potential Morning Markets

Join Jeff Casson for a look at the week ahead and a summary of Friday's US Jobs report which highlights that wages are rising faster than inflation. Looking ahead, we can expect to hear more about inflation, retail sales in Europe and in both the US and the UK we will begin to see earnings reports for Q4 2023 from big names such as M&S, Wells Fargo and Bank of America.

This morning the latest reading on the UK consumer was released, highlighting UK retail sales for the month of November. Paul Durrans, Investment Director, delves into the details of these numbers, looking at why low growth in this area is still ahead of expectations, and what this means for the broader UK economy.  We’ll be back with Morning Markets on the 8th of January 2024, this time with a sl...

Evidence of falling inflation in the UK is increasing the magnitude of interest rate cuts the market expects for 2024. This is pushing down on bond yields, driving positive price returns for Gilts and UK equities. George Bell, Portfolio Manager, discusses the key market moves. 

This morning we saw UK headline inflation come in at 3.9% year-on-year for November, well below economists’ expectations of 4.4%. This is the lowest level of headline inflation since September 2021 - how have markets reacted?

With the announcement that the Bank of Japan's monetary policy will remain unchanged, Portfolio Manager Matt Henderson delves into what that means for bond yields, the strength of the Yen, and your investments.

Last week we saw strong performance from both equity and bond markets, what caused this? Markets are exceedingly confident that interest rate cuts will follow in the US , Eurozone and the UK over the next 6 months. In addition to this, Inflation has well and truly peaked and will slow considerably across all major economies next year. #inflation #equitymarkets #bondmarkets

Yesterday the Bank of England voted to hold interest rates at 5.25% for the third time in a row. George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at the key takeaways from the meeting, how falling inflation has influenced their decision and why all this could be more good news for investors.

Yesterday the Federal Reserve had its latest say on the health of the US economy and its expectations going forward. For the third time in a row, they left interest rates unchanged, but what does this mean for investors? Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at the positive market reaction and why the US Central Bank is guiding to further interest rate cuts next year.

Hot off the press this morning is UK GDP data for the month of October. Additionally US inflation data for the month of November was published yesterday. Our Investment Director Kevin Kidney dissects how this has affected global markets.

As UK unemployment news comes out this morning, our Director of Investment Strategy, Chris Leyland dissects what it means for the Bank of England, interest rates and the UK economy.

Last week ended with the customary release of the US jobs report. The detail in the report was better than expected, with a 199k increase in payrolls for November and the unemployment rate falling to 3.7% in November. From the Federal Reserve’s perspective, will the average hourly earnings increase of 4.0% year on year influence the interest rate decision this week?

Oil prices drop due to lower demand and higher supply, with the US now producing more oil than they did pre-covid. For every day consumers, this translates to lower petrol prices, and could put downward pressure on headline inflation. #oilprices #us #petrol #inflation

In today’s Morning Markets Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, focuses in on UK sovereign bonds. He dissects why they have shown strong returns for investors in recent weeks and how changing expectations of interest rates in the UK, US and Europe influencing their prices.

Yesterday's job opening data demonstrated a cooling in demand for workers, coupled with evidence of moderating inflation in the US markets are implying interest rates are high enough to bring inflation to the Fed's 2.0% target in 2024. Portfolio Manager, George Bell is here to provide context.

November was a remarkable month for asset class returns within diversified portfolios. The US, Europe, UK, Japan, and most emerging markets participated in this asset price rally.  However, China did not, and Investment Director Kevin Kidney joins us to explain why.

Chief Investment Officer Jeff Casson kicks off this week’s Morning Markets with a look back at the key trends that dictated last week’s performance, focusing on the recent rise in equity and bond markets. He also looks ahead to upcoming economic announcements from the US, Europe and China that will likely shape this week’s movements.

November was a very encouraging month for equity and bond markets. Portfolio Manager George Bell takes us through the key components driving returns. 

Yesterday’s inflation figures from Germany have reinforced the latest trends we have been seeing across Europe, that inflation across the continent is coming down. 12 months ago inflation in the country was at 11.6% as Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at how higher interest rates have played a key role in reducing this figure.

A number of senior officials from the Bank of England and European Central Bank attempt to push back against expectations for interest rate cuts as early as Spring next year. However, the more interesting interventions have come from US policymakers with Governor Bowman and Governor Waller pushing for interest rate rises. In addition, OPEC, the cartel for global oil production, is locked in a mini...

Andrew Bailey was in Newcastle upon Tyne yesterday discussing the economic and monetary policy backdrop for the UK. Our Chief Investment Officer Jeff Casson joins us this morning to digest Bailey's visit, plus the impact Thanksgiving and Black Friday has had on the U.S. markets, and what that could mean for your investments this week.

In today’s Morning Markets, Matt Henderson looks at the latest set of PMI data from the US and what this means for the country’s servicing and manufacturing industries. He breaks down the contrasting results for each while analysing how the three main components of these industries - new orders, pricing and employment - have influenced these numbers.

Yesterday we had PMI (Purchasing Managers Indices) readings across Europe and the UK which offer insight into the strength of the manufacturing and services industries. This data helps to establish whether an economy is expanding or contracting. How did the UK data look in comparison to Europe? #economicgrowth #inflation #pmidata

The UK was expected to fall into a recession this year, but yesterday’s Autumn Statement from UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has helped highlight that this hasn’t been the case. Kevin Kidney, Investment Director, reflects on some of the key announcements that reinforce this while looking at what these mean for workers, businesses and your investments.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, discusses yesterday’s minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting. This offers insight into the central bank's latest assessment of the US economy, with investors looking for clues on where the US central bank members see the path of interest rates heading. 

The US Federal Reserve has taken interest rates from 0.25% to 5.50% since March 2022 in a battle to combat inflation, but have we seen the end of these hikes? George Bell, Portfolio Manager, offers insight into current market expectations ahead of today's release of the Federal Reserve minutes.