True Potential Morning Markets

For today's episode, Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at the week ahead, assessing data points from the UK, US, Europe and Asia and what they tell us. Throughout the week, Central bank speakers will focus on current economic backdrop and monetary policy, which will be significant for financial markets. #centralbanks #markets #assets

The Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve all provided an update on their respective interest rate policy this week. Matt Henderson and Paul Durrans discuss what actions were taken by each central bank, as well as discuss the key messages and how the markets reacted.

The Federal Reserve have forecast three interest rate reductions in 2024 with indications of fewer rate cuts in 2025. Jeff Casson, Chief Investment Officer talks about the US GDP forecast, ongoing resiliency in US economic activity and expectations of higher growth for the next 3 years. How have equity and bond markets reacted to this?

As the Bank of England prepares for its Monetary Policy Committee this Thursday, inflation continues to fall and wage growth data may further encourage this towards their 2% target. George Bell, Portfolio Manager, discusses the market anticipation of an August interest rate cut. Today also marks an update from the US Federal Reserve on their economic projections as well as the dot plots graph whic...

The Bank of Japan was the only central bank in the world applying a negative interest rate within its economy but new monetary policy decisions have shifted this. Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, discusses some the changes to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy as well as their move out of negative interest rates and what that means for Japanese asset markets.

Indications of broadening wage based inflation could result in the Bank of Japan exiting negative interest rate policy for the first time in over 8 years. Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation, takes a look at the potential changes in Japan, the upcoming UK CPI print and whether we will continue to see a cooling of inflation pressures and the revised market expectations of interest rate cuts.

With challenges for UK growth in contrast to a strengthening US economy, Kevin Kidney and Paul Durrans explain factors such as the UK private sector employment data, how it feeds into the GDP print released this week and how that reflects the stark contrast. We also get the equity market reaction to these developments with the expectations of falling interest rates.

Recently, we've seen Impressive equity market performance across regions - but what is driving them? Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation, discusses the different factors influencing equity markets and highlights the fundamental change in Japan's corporate attitudes towards shareholders as well as the Eurostoxx 50 outperforming the US.

Can the UK hit the office for budget responsibilities targets with the current growth impulse and employment trends? Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation, discusses whether the UK economy can grow with low private sector job growth. Also, the latest US CPI data also presents a challenge to the global 'disinflation' narrative.

The latest UK employment report shows some softness with a further moderation in wage growth while the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased. Paul Durrans, Investment Director discusses what this may mean for the Bank of England and the prospect of interest rate cuts.

Central banks are monitoring price inflation before looking to change monetary policy. Matt Henderson, Portfolio manager, discusses how inflation data could influence the US interest rates and how the UK’s fourth quarter GDP and unemployment report may influence the Bank of England’s upcoming interest rate decision in the coming week.

Our expert Investment Management team review: Jerome Powell’s recent testimony, suggesting that we are not far from seeing interest rate cuts. With commentary on the US economy exceeding market expectations for employment, how could interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve affect your investments?

With 5 months of consecutive increases in the Halifax house price index, the data suggests relative stability in the housing sector. Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, discusses the Halifax UK house price data, falling mortgage rates and the expectation of interest rate cuts in the UK.

With expectations for inflation to decline and growth to climb across major Western economies, market volatility has fallen as a result. Kevin Kidney, Investment Director, talks through how improving market stability and the fall in the correlations between equity and bond prices has enabled multi-asset portfolios to perform well.

China’s annual budget has set an ambitious growth target of 5% amidst the nations economy facing a number of potential headwinds. Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, talks through the key announcements and the market reaction as well as the fiscal dynamics at play in China.

The European Central Bank meeting takes places later this week and Jeff Casson, Chief Investment Officer discusses the positive comments for inflation and the revised set of economic projections expected. The market will be focusing on the National People’s Conference in China and any social or economic policy that could boost the economy.

Global equities are up 4.3% over February with Japan being the best performing region, Jeff Casson and Matt Henderson discuss the market reaction to headline and core inflation, the rise in personal income and India’s exceptional GDP growth in emerging markets.

The French inflation data has been released and Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, digs into the key components that have brought inflation in France down to its lowest level in over two years.

Prospects for global growth continue to improve, as falling inflation eases pressure on disposable incomes. Investment Director Kevin Kidney looks at the positive economic signals coming from the US as GDP continues to grow above trend as well as an expected pushback to interest rate cuts in the UK and US.

Over the last 30 years, Japan has averaged almost zero inflation, however, since Covid, inflation has been creeping back into their economy. Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks at this mornings inflation report and discusses whether the Bank of Japan can finally move away from their unorthodox monetary policy of negative interest rates.

Jeff Casson, Chief Investment Officer, takes a look at what we can expect from the week ahead. A big focus will be Inflation, with readings from the Federal Reserve and towards the end of the week, we will see Eurozone flash data. How will global markets react? 

This week, the technology firm, Nvidia, made Wall Street history with a record breaking share price increase, how has this impacted global equity markets, beyond the US? Kevin Kidney and George Bell take a closer look at the broad market reaction and discuss developments on interest rate expectations.  #nvidia   #equitymarkets   #interestrates

Equity markets have shown surprising resilience since the start of 2024 and Nvidia’s recent earnings report has only enhanced this strength. Kevin Kidney, Investment Director, looks at how markets are adjusting their thinking in reaction to continued economic surprises, despite falling inflation pressures.

This morning, Chris Leyland Director of Investment Strategy is discussing Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments to the Treasury select committee and our take on it.

This morning, Portfolio Manager George Bell provides an insight to the financial performance of key European banks including profit growth and their plans to return capital to shareholders.