Tomorrow – A podcast by Allianz Research

We're back for Season 3! In this episode, we look at the outlook for the global economy in 2022-2023, talk about how supply-chain disruptions and inflation will play out, and what could possibly go wrong, with Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Euler Hermes, and Andy Jobst, Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Markets Research at Allianz. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "economic outlook - don...

At their December policy meetings, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB will be tested on their monetary policy stance amid higher omicron-related uncertainty. In this episode, we speak to Andy Jobst, Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Markets Research, to find out what to expect. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "Monetary policy: Omicron management & beyond": https://t1p.de/rxr9 • To stay up to dat...

Despite the global economic recovery, watch out for increased debt distress in Emerging Markets, and especially in low-income developing countries, which will need a minimum of USD450bn to step up their spending response to Covid-19. In this episode, Senior Economist Selin Ozyurt explains which countries are most at risk, and why current debt-relief initiatives will only kick the can down the road...

COP26 has been the center of attention this month, but is the EU on track to meet its climate goals? In this episode, our Senior ESG Expert Markus Zimmer explains why the road to net-zero appears rocky, paved with high costs and high uncertainty, with a focus on the EU's transport and utility sectors. SHOWNOTES: Read the full reports • "Transport in a zero carbon EU: Pathways and opportunities": h...

In 2020, monetary and fiscal policy mobilized unimagined sums to stabilize incomes. At the same time, as lockdowns drastically reduced consumption opportunities, the global phenomenon of "forced savings" was born. In this context, global household wealth reached the magic EUR200trillion mark for the very first time. In this episode, we find out more from the Allianz Global Wealth Report 2021 with...

The withdrawal of state support measures for companies sets the stage for a gradual normalization of business insolvencies, but some countries could see a resurgence faster than others. In this episode, we find out what will shape the path ahead for business insolvencies with Maxime Lemerle, Head of Sector and Insolvency Research at Allianz Research. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "Global Insol...

"Business as usual” won't be enough: Germany urgently needs an update to master the upcoming digital, green and demographic transitions. In this episode, Senior Economist Katharina Utermöhl explains in detail what's at stake, and why the the three-party coalition likely after last month's elections could result in more policy evolution than revolution. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "How to fut...

With the spread of the Delta variant, growth momentum softened over the summer and uncertainty remains high. What is the outlook for 2021 and 2022, and what other risks lie ahead? We find out in this episode with Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist of Allianz Research. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "Global economy: A cautious back-to-school": https://t1p.de/e8o6 • To stay up to date with our lates...

Since the start of the Covid-19 crisis, the cost of global trade has surged as lockdowns and other restrictions disrupted shipping and pushed up input prices. How long could these pressures last, and which countries and sectors could be hit the hardest? In this episode, Françoise Huang, Senior Economist for Asia-Pacific and Trade at Allianz Research, explains what to expect for global trade for th...

As Covid-19 restrictions ease, business investment in the Eurozone will rebound in the short run. But it could take up to four years to return to long-term growth trends. In this episode, Senior Economist Selin Ozyurt explains the outlook for the business investment recovery in the Eurozone. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "Investment is back: Harder, better, faster, stronger?": https://t1p.de/r...

For the EU, US and China, the economic recovery after Covid-19 offers an unprecedented opportunity to accelerate in the race to dominate energy transition industries. But as Markus Zimmer, Senior ESG expert explains in this episode, innovation will be the key factor deciding who actually wins. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "The hot race for green tech dominance to cool the global climate": htt...

In this era of Quantitative Easing, there’s a pervasive belief in capital markets that it’s the quantity of money put into the economy by central banks that matters the most. But what's overlooked is the velocity of money. In this episode, Head of Capital Markets Research Eric Barthalon explains what this concept is, and why it matters. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "The flaw in the liquidity...

In recent months, a global shortage of semiconductors has highlighted how dependent several industries have become on this single component, prompting both China and Europe to announce ambitious plans to achieve semiconductor autonomy. In this episode, Senior Sector Advisor Aurélien Duthoit explains why this may not be the most effective strategy. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "China: Riding t...

Over a year into the Covid-19 pandemic, the global economy is finally seeing some light at the end of the tunnel, making it the right time to check the pulse in Germany, France and Italy. In this episode, we discover the results of the Allianz Pulse 2021 with Head of Wealth and Insurance Research Arne Holzhausen. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "Allianz Pulse 2021 - old beliefs die hard": https:...

After several waves of infections, and repeated lockdowns, the rapid pace of vaccination in many advanced economies has set the stage for a grand reopening. But the recovery won't be even around the world. In this episode, Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran explains the outlook for 2021 and beyond. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "Grand reopening: new opportunities, old risks": https://t1p.d...

With the US economy set for a a booming recovery after the Covid-19 crisis, there's a chance the Federal Reserve could start reining in its ultra-loose monetary policy sooner than expected. This would have serious consequences for Emerging Markets. In this episode, we find out which ones could be most at risk of a taper tantrum with Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist at Allianz. SHOWNOTES: • Read the...

Covid-19 has sparked a fundamental change in global risk awareness. And that has consequences for the insurance industry, coming after a dismal decade of growth. What does the future hold for the industry, and how can it adapt to the new risk landscape? In this episode we speak to Arne Holzhausen, Head of Insurance and Wealth Research at Allianz. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "Allianz Global I...

In the wake of the Covid-19 crisis, financial and risk literacy matters more than ever. But our survey of savers shows that the level of financial literacy is disastrously low. We speak to Patricia Pelayo Romero, expert in Insurance at Allianz Research, about what policymakers need to do to close the gap. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "Resilience in times of Corona": https://t1p.de/57ib • To s...

Eurozone governments have provided billions of euros in support for companies in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis. This has resulted in cash reserves soaring in the Eurozone. In this episode we find out what they could be used for with Head of Macroeconomic Research Ana Boata. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "European corporates: (Active) cash is king": https://t1p.de/c32h • full report "Cash-ric...

Could the Covid-19 crisis mark the end of the low-inflation era in the US and the Eurozone? In this episode, we speak to Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran about what to really expect from inflation in 2021 and beyond. SHOWNOTES: • Read more in our report "Demystifying the four horsemen of the inflation apocalpyse": https://t1p.de/h0ry • To stay up to date with our latest publications, subscri...