Tomorrow – A podcast by Allianz Research

Is the ECB's "climate talk" having an effect on ESG bonds? In the last episode of this season, we speak to Andreas Jobst, Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Markets Research, and Senior Economist Roberta Fortes about their recent report on green monetary policy. Read the report: Toasted, roasted and grilled? Walking the talk on green monetary policy. To stay up to date with all our research, subscr...

How can we invest to reduce biodiversity loss? In this episode with Arne Holzhausen, Head of Wealth, Insurance and Trend Research, and Markus Zimmer, Senior Economist for ESG, we learn about how they calculate the cost of biodiversity loss and compare the measures to abate it in Europe. Read the reports: The new risk frontier in finance: biodiversity loss and Biodiversity loss part II: portfolio i...

For the 2023 edition of the Allianz Trade Global Survey, we decided to check the pulse of nearly 3,000 exporters in seven countries: the US, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland. We dive into the results in this episode with Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade, and Ano Kuhanathan, Head of Corporate Research. Read the full report: Allianz Trade Global Survey 2023: Test...

Despite higher inflation – or perhaps precisely because of it – global insurance premiums are set to increase by 5.2% over the next decade, according to the latest Allianz Global Insurance Report. In this episode, we speak to Arne Holzhausen, Head of Insurance, Wealth and Trends Research, and Kathrin Stoffel, Expert in Wealth Markets, about the outlook for the insurance industry in a turbulent tim...

How have European labor markets fared in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic? In this episode with Senior Economist Maddalena Martini and Economist Patricia Pelayo Romero, we look at the impact on employment, wages and productivity, and what that means for policymakers. Read the full report: No quick wins: more jobs but little productivity in the Eurozone. To stay up to date with all our research, y...

The Allianz Global Pension report analyzes pension systems in 75 countries to identify which ones are best prepared for demographic change. In this episode with Arne Holzhausen, Head of Insurance, Wealth and Trend Research, and Senior Economist Michaela Grimm, we find out more about the results, and what they mean for policymakers. Read the full report: Reforming against demographic change. To sta...

The rebound in business insolvencies is picking up speed. In this episode, we speak to Maxime Lemerle, Lead Insolvency Analyst at Allianz Trade, to understand the outlook for business insolvencies in 2023-2024. Read the full report: Insolvency report: No rest for the leveraged. To stay up to date with all our research, you can also subscribe to the Ludonomics newsletter on Substack.

Households in the US and Europe built up a sizable amount of excess savings during the pandemic. But this cash cushion is losing its fluff. In this episode, we speak to Maxime Darmet, Senior Economist at Allianz Trade, and Patricia Pelayo Romero, Economist at Allianz, to find out what dwindling savings and the wealth effect mean for economic growth. Read the reports: • "Falling off a savings cliff...

Over the last decades, and especially since the global financial crisis, structural factors have held down inflation. But now that trend is reversing. In this episode, we learn about the "five Ds" of structurally higher inflation - demographics, decarbonization, deglobalization, digitalization and debt - with Andreas Jobst, Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Markets Research at Allianz, and Ano Kuh...

It has now been a year since Russia attacked Ukraine, sending shockwaves throughout the global economy. In this episode, Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran and Eric Barthalon, Head of Capital Markets Research, explain how war economics is playing out in Russia and Ukraine, and its consequences for the rest of the world. Read the full reports: • "The economics of war, (and its aftermath): https...

Given the rapid rise in debt ratios during the pandemic and the current energy crisis, it's clear that the EU fiscal framework is in need of reform. In this episode, we dive into what the European Commission has proposed change about its fiscal rules, and what that could mean for public debt, with Andreas Jobst, Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Markets Research, and Maddalena Martini, Economist f...

Rising interest rates have created very volatile markets in 2022. What happens next for equities and corporate bonds? We find out in this episode with Andreas Jobst, Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Markets Research, and Jordi Basco Carrera, Lead Investment Strategist. Read more from our reports: • "Fixed income is back": https://t1p.de/c861h • "Market Volatility and Corporate Bonds - Collateral...

The US housing market is adjusting to the new reality of higher-for-longer interest rates. In this episode, we speak to Senior Economist Maxime Darmet to find out more about what's happening in housing and mortgage markets, and what it means for the US economy. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report: "US housing market: The first victim of the Fed": https://t1p.de/yxz6k • You can also subscribe to the...

Rising interest rates are a big shock for companies, but some sectors are more exposed than others. In this episode, we speak with Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade, and Ano Kuhanathan, Head of Corporate Research, to find out what the end of zeronomics means for companies. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report: "Double trouble? Inflation means less cash and more debt for companies"...

According to the latest Allianz Global Wealth Report, 2021 might have been the last year of the old "new normal", with bullish stock markets powered by monetary policy bringing handsome benefits to household wealth. In this episode, we speak with Arne Holzhausen, Head of Insurance Wealth and Trend Research, and Patricia Pelayo Romero, Economist covering Insurance and ESG, to find out what the end...

This month, both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points, the latest in a series of moves to combat surging inflation. This has brought an end to a long era of interest rates being at nearly zero, or even negative, in advanced economies. In the first episode of this special new season of Tomorrow, Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran tells us...

Global food prices have surged by 56% as the war in Ukraine disrupts supplies of wheat, corn and sunflower oil. This could put millions of people at risk of food insecurity, amplifying the risk of social unrest in several emerging markets. We find out more in this episode with Patricia Pelayo Romero, Expert in insurance and Senior Sector Advisor Aurélien Duthoit. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full reports...

With the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China extending supply-chain disruptions and pushing up input costs, the balance of risks has significantly deteriorated for companies. In this episode we find out what this global context will mean for global business insolvencies with Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade, and Maxime Lemerle, Lead Analyst for Insolvency Research. SHOWNOTES...

2022 was expected to be another bumper year for the insurance industry, but the invasion of Ukraine has dashed those hopes. According to the Allianz Global Insurance Report 2022, premium income is likely to grow by roughly 1pp slower than originally assumed as the war takes its toll on economic activity and confidence, even as inflation supports the top line. Looking beyond 2022, the war will have...

In our Allianz Trade Global Survey 2022, we decided to check the pulse of exporters in the US, China, the UK, France, Italy and Germany. Two surveys were carried out – one before the start of the invasion of Ukraine and one after, involving nearly 3,000 corporates. In this episode, we dive into the results with Ano Kuhanathan, Head of Corporate Research, and Françoise Huang, Senior Economist for A...

The US economy is less directly exposed to the economic consequences of the invasion of Ukraine compared to Europe. But surging energy prices are driving inflation even higher, which could accelerate the reversal of the "great resignation" in the job market. In this episode, we find out how with Patricia Pelayo Romero, Insurance and ESG Expert at Allianz SE. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "The...

With energy prices surging in Europe, households and companies are feeling the pinch. In this episode, we speak with Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade, and Ano Kuhanathan, Head of Corporate Research, to find out how long higher energy prices could last, and which countries and sectors could be hit the hardest. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "The (energy) price of war for Eur...

The invasion of Ukraine has sent energy prices surging, which means inflation is likely to remain higher and stickier in 2022. What does this mean for central banks and monetary policy in the US and Eurozone? We find out in this episode with Patrick Krizan and Katharina Utermohl, Senior Economists at Allianz. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "Economic Outlook - Energy, trade and financial shockwa...

The invasion of Ukraine has sparked drastic sanctions against Russia. What will this mean for its economy, and for the rest of the world? We find out in this episode with Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Euler Hermes, and Andy Jobst, Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Markets Research at Allianz. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "Russia-Ukraine crisis: Conflict escalation": https://t1p.de/o...

Record-high inflation is turning up the heat on central banks, but could a wage-price spiral make things worse? In this episode, we find out which countries and sectors are most at risk with Senior Economist Selin Ozyurt and Sector Advisor Ano Kuhanathan. SHOWNOTES: • Read the full report "Frying pan to fire: Will inflation spark a wage-price spiral in 2022?": https://t1p.de/0uc5 • To stay up to d...