Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

When today's expert was last on this program back in March, he predicted we'll see sub-2% inflation AND a recession by the end of this year. Since then, headline CPI has remained stubbornly "sticky" above 3% So, is 2% (or less) inflation by December still his forecast? Or have conditions changed? To find out, we have the good fortune to sit down and get a full update today from Steve Hanke, profes...

I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers. Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results. Today we have the great fortune of being joined by one of the most respected capital allocators in the business: Jan van Eck Jan is CEO of vanEck, an asset...

When Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com was last on this program, he admitted he was a reluctant bull. He just wasn't seeing any material barriers that stood in the way of the ongoing bully rally in stocks at that time. At the end of our conversation, I asked him to come back on this program when his technical analysis tells him conditions have changed. Well, Sven just reached out last night, lett...

Well, portfolio manager Lance Roberts has been warning for a while now that stocks were materially overbought and due for a 5%+ correction. And it looks like that started this week, with the S&P selling off 3% over the past 3 trading days. Interestingly, it began with a massive flow of capital into small cap stocks, though that moderated a bit as the week progressed. Whether or not this is the beg...

There is a mechanical force that pushes asset prices higher as capital flows passively into the market every month. As more money flows in, it must be used to purchase assets, at whatever current price they're trading at. That valuation-insensitive purchasing results in higher and higher prices. Today's guest refers to this current system as the "giant mindless robot". And, in his view, has deform...

History is full of examples where nations resorted to taking on ever-increasing amounts of debt to maintain a positive economic growth rate. But it never works out well for those who do. Most often, they end up sacrificing the purchasing power of their currencies in the process. Many analysts are now raising such concerns about the fast growing national, corporate and consumer debt pile in the US...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of Congress this week to defend his current monetary policy. While we don't have the results of that testimony as of the time of this recording, Powell has recently stated that he is now seeing the kind of disinflationary path for the US economy that he's wanted to. This of course has Wall Street salivating again that rate cuts are near at han...

Yes, Federal Reserve Jerome Powell is hoping he can cut rates soon. But it's less because he's proud he's won the inflation battle. It's more because he's afraid the Lag Effect from his "higher for longer" interest rates are starting to visibly damage the economy. Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz stands in for Lance Roberts this week to talk about the Fed's unfolding scramble to get to rate cuts...

The US economy appears to be slowing down. Final Q1 GDP growth came in at just 1.4% and, as of this recording, Q2 GDP is currently estimated to be little better, at 1.5%. Retail sales for May, the most recent data we have, only grew at 0.1%. And unemployment is starting to tick up, too, rising last week to 4.1%. Now, none of these stats are particularly worrisome on their own. But together, are th...

Former Vice President Dick Cheney famously said "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter" True or not, running greater and greater federal budget deficits has become standard operating procedure for Washington DC. When Cheney uttered those words, the annual deficit was in the low hundreds of billions. It's projected to be $2 trillion this year. At that scale, today's guest e...

When I graduated from Stanford Business School 25 years ago, a classmate announced he was going to work for a hedge fund and the rest of us asked "What's that?" Fast forward two and a half decades and the financial markets are practically overrun by hedge funds collectively managing over $5 trillion dollars. And while certain hedge fund managers have become financial celebrities through dazzling r...

There is a massive deviation between stock valuations and earnings growth: growth in the former is far outpacing the latter. This is unsustainable warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts. And unless economic growth suddenly surges (and no catalyst for that is on the radar), then asset prices will need to come down in order to bring the ratio back into balance. And with GDP growth coming in at1.4% in...

Today's guest wrote the book "Inflated: How Money & Debt Built The American Dream" In it, he wrote: "The first rule of any fiat system is no fiscal deficit" Well, the US -- and virtually every other G7 country -- is breaking that rule six ways to Sunday given the unprecedented record levels of deficit spending currently underway. Does that mean we're headed for trouble? To find out, we'll ask the...

With so many recent interview guests on this channel expressing concern about the near-record levels of overvaluation AND narrow trading breadth in stocks, about slowing economic growth, a weakening consumer and rising recession risk, many of you viewers have been asking for a instructional video on how to protect your portfolios from market downside risk -- a process otherwise known as hedging. W...

I find myself frequently repeating the advice that in today's highly bifurcated economy, it's critical to understand the difference between the mean and the median in order to get a true picture of what's going on. And the housing market is no different. On the mean, or average, level, US home prices are at a record high. But in a growing number of markets, a number of them red-hot until recently,...

Today's stock market is like an iceberg, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. We can see the surface, which looks fine. The Magnificent 7 stocks -- really now the Mag 5 -- are collectively growing market cap and profits, propping up the overall index. But if you look below the surface, at the bottom 90% of the iceberg, "things look terrible" warns Lance. We discuss why, as well any impact this we...

There's an old saying on Wall Street that "no one rings a bell at the market top" This is why so many surprised investors got so badly burned when the DotCom and 2008 stock bubbles burst. But those who noticed the extreme market conditions beforehand, whose analysis of history convinced them that defense was more prudent than fear of missing out, these few avoided most of the losses -- and some ev...

If you listen to the politicians and the headlines, you'll hear a lot of talk about the "strong consumer" who is keeping the economy happily chugging along. But when we hear from actual consumers themselves, we hear a very different story. The majority of households are struggling under the surge in their cost of living post-COVID. Many express despair that the American dream is now beyond their r...

The purchasing power of the world's major fiat currencies has taken a beating since the pandemic. Just in the US, due to the spike in inflation, Truflation now estimates that the dollar has lost over a quarter of its purchasing power since January 2020. Due to this higher inflation, as well as continued expectations for higher secular inflation over the coming years as globalization declines, nati...

With stocks still firmly in overbought territory and the uncertainty of the US presidential election nearing, portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns "We're due for a correction" He expects a 5-10% pullback in the near term. And perhaps a slightly larger drop leading up to November as Wall Street de-risks ahead of voting. Lance and Adam review the latest chart technicals, whether Japan’s Norinchukin...

When asked last month if the US economy was heading into stagflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he didn't see the "stag" nor the "flation" in the data he looks at. Well, US Q2 GDP growth estimates as forecasted by the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now service are plunging. And Q1's weak reported GDP growth rate of 1.6% was revised further downwards to a paltry 1.3% That's some "stag" right there. And CPI r...

So far this year, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 have accounted for more than 76% of the index's gain. This is the 2nd most concentrated reading for the S&P in the past 20 years. The highest percentage was 79%, achieved in 2007, right before the Global Financial Crisis. Are we in a new AI-powered Tech renaissance that will continuing powering the markets higher for years to come? Or are we riski...

Well, the markets are back at all-time highs and central banks around the world are increasingly talking of interest rate cuts...or actually making them. Will that take asset prices even higher from here? Are we in a new golden era for stocks? To find out what the technicals are telling us, as well as to dig into the macro side as well, we're fortunate to speak today with Sven Henrich, technical a...

Stocks hit new all-time highs this week and despite being very overbought, momentum is still higher. What could end this rally is the upcoming earnings season, cautions portfolio manager Lance Roberts. Profit growth estimates are EXTREMELY optimistic right now. If they disappoint, a reversal could be fast & furious. Lance and I talk about that, the recent Fed guidance, the weak jobs market, and do...

In its latest guidance released this week, the Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady for now. The Federal Funds rate will remain unchanged at 5.25% But the Fed did lower its rate cut forecast for 2024 to just 1. And it raised its 2025 rate cut expectations upwards from 3 to 4. It largely did this because its outlook on inflation is notably more optimistic than in previous months. Wall S...