Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Stocks have had a bad week, make worse on Friday when a mixed payrolls report sent investors into a tizzy trying to speculate whether deeper interest rate cuts were more or less likely in September. They eventually decided the latter, and then sent the price of many assets markedly lower. Portfolio Lance Roberts says the correction he's been expecting pre-election is now here. The big question fro...

This interview comes hot on the heels of the one I just released with demographer Neil Howe in which we discussed the current period of extreme volatility and change -- which he calls the 4th Turning -- that he sees the world descending into. Long simmering issues are now at the point of boiling over, be it economic opportunity, crime, free speech, immigration, personal liberty -- the list is long...

The fault lines that divide our society are widening. The K-shaped recovery that we've seen since COVID has rewarded asset owners at the expense of everyone else. And millennials and Gen Zers, who are losing faith in being able to achieve a middle class lifestyle, look with increasing bitterness at the relative prosperity of the Boomer generation. These simmering grudges are only getting inflamed...

REGISTER for Farmland LP's free webinar on Sep 4 @7pmET by emailing ir@farmlandlp.com One of the asset classes I get the most requests to do an interview on is farmland. It's a form of real estate investment that yields cash flow by producing commodities -- all attractive qualities to investors worried about inflation and/or the loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies. But how does it...

The markets are back to overbought levels in the near term, both stocks and bonds, assesses portfolio manager Lance Roberts. And while he doesn't think an economic calamity necessarily lies ahead, we don't need one to justify a material downward correction in stocks. Stocks are valued based on their earnings forecast, and right now, forecasts are rosy. But there are multiplying signs that trouble...

Now that it seems the Fed has officially pivoted, what will lower interest rates mean for the economy and financial markets? Will they be enough to keep recession at bay and prevent a further rise in unemployment? What will the trillions of investor capital currently parked in T-bills and money markets go if the yields on those assets go down? For a true expert's view on these important questions,...

Last week in his much-anticipated speech at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the "time has come for policy to adjust". World markets now have a 100% probability expectation that the Federal Funds Rate will be cut at the upcoming September meeting. In the words of Nick Timiraos, chief economist for the Wall Street Journal and suspected media mouthpiece for the Federal...

The war of conflicting narratives continues. Bulls point to Q2's robust GDP growth, still relatively low unemployment, an upside surprise in July retail sales, and record high prices for both stocks and existing homes. Bears on the other hand warn about slowing Q3 estimated GDP growth, the triggering of the Sahm rule recession indicator, this week's massive downward revision in payrolls, rising co...

Now that Jerome Powell has gone "full pivot", will stocks shoot higher? Not necessarily, says portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz, who steps in this week while Lance Roberts moves into his new house. He thinks stocks will be on a "choppy road to nowhere" between now and the election. We discuss why, as well as his rosy outlook for long-duration bonds on this week's Market Re...

The Buffett Indicator currently stands at almost 200%, one of the most extreme readings of overvalution in its history. With stocks so richly valued, prudent investors worry that stretching for further gains here may not be worth the risk. Which is why more and more of them are starting to prioritize investing for income over appreciation. A few months back, I interviewed Steven Bavaria, creator o...

We're currently receiving a lot of mixed signals about the direction of the economy? Inflation has dropped to 2.9%. And retail sales for July just beat expectations. That's good, right? But unemployment has rising to 4.3%, triggering the Sahm Rule recession indicator. And credit card and auto loan delinquencies are spiking. Wait -- those sound pretty concerning... So, what's the true health of the...

Here's a fun question: What better than interviewing your favorite macro expert? Interviewing BOTH your favorite macro experts at the same time! I'm happy & honored that today we get to sit down with Stephanie Pomboy AND her frequent partner in crime Grant Williams to hear their latest outlook for the economy and the markets, plus if we're lucky, a bit about sports and the meaning...

Stocks have recovered aggressively since the sell-off two weeks ago. Does that signal the market correction that started in mid-July is over? Likely so, thinks portfolio manager Lance Roberts. We discuss the reasons why, as well as how his firm plans to position for higher prices ahead in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money'...

Jeremy Grantham is one of the most respected investors alive today. His firm - Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. -- better known as GMO, manages $billions in assets under management and produces some of the most-followed market analysis on Wall Street. Core to its outlook is that financial and economic extremes will mean revert. And that prudent investors can pro-actively position themselves to b...

The real estate market is a tangled mess right now. High vacancies along with higher interest rates and tighter lending standards are wreaking carnage across much of the commercial sector these days. However, higher mortgage rates have NOT brought down residential home prices, at least not on a national average...yet. That said, transactions have frozen up, falling to the lowest level in decades....

When I interviewed today's guest last year1 he said that the forecast of his proprietary model made him about "as bullish as he'd ever been on stocks" heading into Q1 And to give credit where credit is due, his positioning was spot on the money. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ increased by 10% in Q1. When I interviewed him again heading into Q2, his model said "stay the course, stay bullish" And a...

What a week! The unwind of the yen carry trade sent global markets into free-fall on Monday. Equities tanked, as did Bitcoin, oil and gold. US Treasurys jumped, returning to their traditional inverse relationship to stocks. And then...everything reversed. Most due to central bank intervention in Japan, as well as some better than expected jobs data in the US. So, everyone is asking: Is the sell-of...

The Sahm Rule, a widely-monitored recession indicator, triggered on Friday. Some analysts are arguing that it's too early to worry about a slowdown, that the economy is too strong currently. Others warn the US may already BE in recession. So, which is it? For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for QI Research LLC and author of the book "Fe...

After declining for weeks, the global market sell-off accelerated on Monday. Why? The professional financial advisors endorsed by Thoughtful Money answered this + a number of other burning questions viewers asked in this live Q&A session WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

There's a widely-tracked indicator known as the Sahm Rule, which purports to provide an "early warning notice" when the economy starts entering into recession. So, what's it telling us right now? To find out, we have the privilege of speaking to its developer, economist Claudia Sahm. In addition to founding Sahm Consulting, Claudia spent many years working at the Federal Reserve as well as serving...

Friday's payrolls report miss and subsequent triggering of the Sahm Rule recession indictor caused stocks to continue their sell-off From their mid-July highs, the S&P is down -6%, the Nasdaq is down -10% and the Russell is down -7% How much further will the sell-off go? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss that in this week's highly animated Market Recap, along with the recent jobs data,...

In this video, fund manager & Federal Reserve watcher Axel Merk delivers his real-time reaction to yesterday's FOMC guidance & subsqent press conference by Jerome Powell. The Fed is strongly signaling that it will start cutting interest rates starting in September. Is that wise? WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at htt...

When we talk about the "markets", most people immediately think of publicly traded financial assets: the S&P and Nasdaq indices, stocks of popular companies like Microsoft & Nvidia, their corporate bonds, etc. We can see the prices of these assets, and how they change minute-by-minute, on the public exchanges. We receive audited financial statements from these companies, as well as quarterly updat...

Yesterday I had a private conversation with housing analyst Melody Wright. In it, she revealed how shocked she is by the latest stats that show how the housing market is starting to unravel. Record-low transactions during what is normally the business time of the year for home sales. Inventory up nearly 30% year over year nationally. And of ever greater concern, spiking delinquencies -- in some ca...

While it looks like stocks could continue bouncing higher in the immediate term, portfolio manager Lance Roberts isn't convinced the sell-off is done yet. He and his firm aren't back to buying yet, as they expect a better chance to enter at lower prices in coming weeks. We discuss that, as well as the recent upwards surprise in GDP, Fed rate cut odds, Zombie company risk, the un-inverting yield cu...