Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Housing expert Melody Wright has updated her outlook on US home prices for 2025, now predicting they will decline nationally.

If you're familiar with the concept of the 4th Turning, it's hard to deny we're in one now. A fourth turning is a societal cycle during which the power structure and institutions that long existed are disrupted and dismantled, and eventually replaced by a new order. Daily now we're seeing an accelerated dismantling of the status quo. Whether you deem that good or bad, it raises an existential ques...

The market has been tossed a lot of surprises lately -- even a near-black swan (DeepSeek) -- and yet, stocks have shrugged off all the uncertainty. Investor sentiment remains sky-high. And concern of the growing list of risk factors appears quite low. So, is "irrational exuberance" back? That's what portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz and I discuss in today's video, as well as his current outlook f...

One of the biggest forces boosting both economic growth and asset price appreciation over recent years has been the explosion of higher fiscal deficit spending -- sending the prices of all assets including growth stocks, gold and Bitcoin soaring. Today's guest, analyst Lyn Alden, predicts we'll be stuck with these these large deficits for a long time to come, often repeating in her writing that "n...

Tariffs, trade wards, DOGE, deportations -- the disruption has come fast and furious so far during president Trump's first two weeks in office. The non-stop surprises (not to mention the DeepSeek scare) are creating a lot of market volatility, as well as a lot of uncertainty for analysts and pundits . How are we regular investors supposed to navigate such a turbulent new era? The financial advisor...

Well, we have a new US Presidential Administration with a very different economic strategy than its predecessor. The president has already started vocally demanding the Federal Reserve be more aggressive in lowering interest rates. And he's appointed a new head, Scott Bessent, at the US Treasury, replacing Janet Yellen. What should we expect from the policies this Administration intends to pursue?...

Macro & market analyst Stephanie Pomboy shares the latest investing trends that have her attention + takes live Q&A from the viewing audience

When Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com was last on this program in November, he gave the advice "remain bullish, but be careful" Since then the S&P has increased slightly, but mostly trended sideways. Here at the start of 2025, what does his Technical Analysis tell us to expect next? And did the shock to investors delivered by China's surprise release of the DeepSeek A.I. model change his outlook...

Well, despite a week of high uncertainty -- the DeepSeek surprise, earnings releases for many of the Magnificent 7 stocks, a terrible aviation disaster and the declaration of tariffs against some of America's largest trading partners -- the markets actually seem to be doing fine. The bulls are back in control and, technically-speaking, the action in stocks looks robust at the moment. Will this sus...

This week was a roller-coaster ride for the markets. Stocks weakened as the week progressed, and then really started falling after Nvidia's guidance failed to restore confidence in investors. But then the markets rallied hard into the close on Friday. Which is causing investors everyone to ask:Is the sell-off over? Or, is this merely a head-fake before prices resume their decline? Adding to the un...

Recession fears seem to have faded from the headlines, as the "no landing" scenario seems to have won out -- on Wall Street at least. Attention is much more focused on a possible boost to economic growth from the policies of the new Trump administration, as well as concern that inflation could prove stickier and more stubborn to tame than the Fed hopes, resulting in higher for longer bond yields....

When today's guest was on this program back in September, he predicted the market would start to become more volatile. He didn't necessarily think that would mean lower stock prices into the end of 2024. And he was proven correct. But he did express worry that as we entered 2025, continued higher volatility could start to become a problem for investors. Does he still think that? To find out, we we...

Charles Hugh Smith joins me to explain DeepSeek and what it's potential significance is BUY YOUR TICKET ATTHE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

On this channel we conduct deep-dive discussions with hundreds of experts a year, doing our best to see through their eyes and chart a wise course through the economic waters ahead. But with all the different approaches, opinions and conclusions, it's important to remind ourselves not to overcomplicate things. The fundamentals to wealth building aren't rocket science. And for most non-professional...

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns that corporate earnings expectations are likely unrealistic, and that one Wall Street realizes this, stock prices will have to come down. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

In his previous appearances on this channel, Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital, has explained that rising net liquidity been largely responsible for the surprisingly strong performance seen in both the economy & the financial markets over the past 2 years. Will the good times continue into 2025? Don't count on it, Michael says. To find out why, we'll sit down today with the man...

One of the great David Bowie's most popular songs was titled "Changes" Today's guest David Hay, Chief Investment Officer & Principal at Evergreen Gavekal, might well steal that title for his expected theme of 2025 He sees headwinds that could cause the economy to grow slower than many currently expect. He sees the prices of stocks and bonds at risk. The Fed increasingly behind the curve, the dolla...

Stephanie Pomboy shares her latest outlook on inflation. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

The winds of change are blowing around the globe. 74 countries representing half of the world's population held national elections last year. Many of them -- including the US -- saw a replacement of the ruling incumbent by the opposition, often one promising a more nationalistic agenda. With so many new leaders and their accompanying new policies, what is the outlook for the global economy and fin...

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts lays out the odds for where stocks are headed next. We also discuss the rising bond term premium & what it means, the risk of a large market drawdown in 2025, Lance fir'sm latest trades and the benefits of using time to your advantage in both investing & life. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial ad...

Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, has had a remarkably impressive track record in correctly forecasting the markets over recent years. Having turned bullish near the end of 2022, he remained so ever since, helping his subscribers successfully ride the wave of ferocious back-to-back annual returns of over 20%+ in stocks. He also helped them catch Bitcoin's price doubling over the past several...

Despite the confidence Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is doing his best to project, inflation has not yet been slain. And today's guest expert, Jim Bianco, founder of market research firm Bianco Research, thinks it's going to continue to prove problematic as the return of the "bond vigilantes" increasingly undermines the Fed's efforts. We'll talk about his reasons why, as well as his concerns...

On this channel, we often highlight abnormalities we notice in the financial markets. Today's guest actively embraces them as gifts from the investment gods. In his words: "Fortunately, the financial markets are often quite inefficient, presenting opportunities for us to generate substantial value for our clients’ portfolios." So, where are the biggest inefficiencies in markets today? And what opp...

The drivers that support economic growth and earnings are slowing down. And valuations are stretched to record extremes. For these reasons, portfolio manager Lance Roberts is turning significantly more tactically bearish on stock this year. This doesn't necessarily mean he expects an imminent crash. But it does mean he expects stocks to put in a much more disappointing year than investors have bec...

Today's guest has long warned that the bond market will one day take the printing press away from the Federal Reserve. Well, the Fed has now CUT its policy rate by 100 basis points since September, but the yield on the 10 year US Treasury note is now 100 basis point HIGHER since then. This has flummoxed many investors and mortgage holders. Yet it begs the question: is this the start of a bond mark...