Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

The new Trump Administration has wasted no time deploying its ambitious and disruptive economic policies. Tax cuts, aggressive trade re-negotiations, de-regulation, DOGE-driven cost reductions -- a potential new sovereign wealth fund. What are the intended benefits of these policies? Are they likely to succeed? Are they being implemented in the right way? Might they tip the economy into recession...

An hour ago, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released the outcome of its meeting this week, keeping its policy rate unchanged (as expected) but slowing the pace of its Quantitative Tightening program. And just a little while ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell just wrapped up his press conference related to this release. The market’s reaction (so far) has been positive. My bullet-point notes to...

Well, the Spring Thoughtful Money conference was held online this past weekend and I’m delighted to say the event was a real success. That was due primarily to the amazing line-up of speakers who presented and took live audience Q&A throughout the insight-packed 10-hour day. Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote, followed by Luke Gromen, Michael Howell, Darius Dale, Sven Henrich, Brent Johnson, Thomas H...

Macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy and I just concluded our bi-weekly live show. This week, Stephanie focused on recession risk and the mental gymnastics many go through to avoid addressing it. Not only are the economic data continuing to weaken, but even the new Administration is telling investors to prepare for a slowdown. Here’s US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday:“The market and the econ...

After four weeks of relentless selling, the charter of the stock market has changed. While a short-term bounce is likely here, sentiment is now damaged. It will be harder for the market to race back to new highs, as investors start to price in a greater acceptance of the current risk factors. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial a...

After a pummeling few weeks over which the stocks lost $trillions in market cap, Friday saw a big rally and the reversal of a number of technical indicators. Does this mean the bottom is in? At least, in the near term? Quite possibly, says portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz. We discuss the reasons why this is more likely than not, and the importance of watching closely what happens next. If stocks...

As mentioned many times on this program, stocks entered the year trading at or near record-high valuation extremes. When stocks are at such overbought extremes, short-sellers smell opportunity. They've certainly had a lot of it over the past two weeks. Today we have the good fortune of speaking with one of the best known short-sellers in the business, Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Research...

Gold has experienced a major upwards repricing in recent years. It's up nearly $1,000/oz over the past two years. And in just the past year alone, it's up 35%, handily outperforming the S&P's return of just 13%.Some say gold is quite overbought after this big run. Others say it's just getting started, and that far higher prices lie ahead due to the ongoing loss of purchasing power of the US dollar...

From tariffs to tax cuts to de-regulation to budget reductions to a potential sovereign wealth fund, the new Trump administration is moving aggressively to redesign the way America finances itself. Are these much-needed reforms that will put the American economy on a more secure & sustainable footing? Or could they risk resulting in misguided chaos? To find out, today we have the great fortune to...

Stocks have had a rough week, declining through mid-day Friday until finally bouncing in the last few hours. Is the bottom in? It could be, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. The downward price action has been so swift, and the sentiment swing so negative, that stocks look very oversold in the near term. So he thinks a continued bounce from here next week is quite likely. We discuss that, plus...

There's a lot of urgency right now in America to reduce the fiscal deficit via the new D.O.G.E and also to reduce its trade deficit via the threat of tariffs. Both initiatives are creating a lot of disruption right now, and have their fair share of vocal supporters and detractors. Are they likely to work? And at what cost? For discuss, we're fortunate to speak today with market veteran Kevin Muir,...

When today's guest was last on this program back in December, he warned that after blockbuster double-digit returns in 2023 and 2024, stocks were likely to have a tougher time this year. Well, so far, with the S&P slightly down YTD for 2025, that prediction is proving prescient. So, where does he see the market headed from here? To find out, we're fortunate today to talk with money manager Michael...

Our bi-weekly ‘Macro Monday Mornings’ with Stephanie Pomboy resumed today. We discussed the mounting signs of economic slowdown, as well as the continued ‘stickiness’ of inflation. Will the rest of 2025 see us stuck in Stagflation? Stephanie thinks the odds are uncomfortably high. And similarly so for a material correction in the financial markets. We also discussed her projected implications of t...

There can be little doubt we're at a material juncture: Deficit spending and the resulting pile of debts and other sovereign liabilities are starting to place real limits on our economic prosperity. In addition to these legacies of the past, the future is fast becoming more uncertain as many nations -- the US in particular -- are embarking on new policy directions very different from the status qu...

This week was a roller-coaster ride for the markets. Stocks weakened as the week progressed, and then really started falling after Nvidia's guidance failed to restore confidence in investors. But then the markets rallied hard into the close on Friday. Which is causing investors everyone to ask:Is the sell-off over? Or, is this merely a head-fake before prices resume their decline? Adding to the un...

The US dollar has been very strong for several years now. Among other implications, capital from the rest of the world has flooded into US stocks as a result. Today’s guest predicts that for many reasons, especially America’s need to get bond yields lower in order to make its debt more serviceable, the dollar will fall materially over the coming year. If that happens, it will likely be unfavorable...

Stock market valuations remain high by nearly every valuation metric. And what concerns today's guest is that the earnings estimates being used to price stocks today seem far above what the free cash flows of the underlying companies will be able to deliver. In short, stocks prices appear to be promising returns that their actual profit growth simply can't meet. We'll discuss this concerning disco...

GET MICHAELS FREE ARTICLE ON STATECRAFT at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/global_strategy_us_economic_statecraft_days_of_future_past.pdfWhen today's guest was last on this program back in Nov, he predicted we'd see continued momentum geopolitically away from globalization and towards mercantilism and protectionism. That has proven to be the case worldwide, and particularly...

"It's almost a guaranteed setup for a mean-reverting event"That's how portfolio manager Lance Roberts views the extremely-rosy earnings estimates currently forecasted for 2025 are. In his estimation, these estimates are so far removed from what actual corporate profits will be able to deliver that downwards repricing event is highly likely. The critical question, of course, remains: When? Lance an...

The financial advisors from New Harbor Financial explain why the odds favor higher stock prices from here in the near term, to new all-time highs. They also discuss the prospects for gold & the gold miners (both promising, especially the latter), the safety of T-bills, and what to do if you fear you may lose your job in 2025.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Though...

When today's guest was last on this program back in October, she advised investors to prepare for a more volatile year ahead in 2025 - a year in which she predicted 'the game would start to get harder"So far, with the major indices stuck bouncing up & down in a trading range, her prediction is looking prescient. Now that we're two months into the year, and we have more clarity around the new Trump...

When today's guest was last on this program back in June, he predicted that interest rates would remain "higher for longer".And the ensuing seven months proved him correct. With inflation remaining stubbornly sticky, new tariffs and other disruptive policies announced by Trump administration, $trillions in US Treasury debt to mature this year, and the return of the bond vigilantes....where are int...

Are investors TOO bullish now? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts is concerned they are. Wall Street is flush with money and throwing it at just about every asset right now. Lance sees a lot of similarities to late 2021/early 2022, right before the over-valued markets corrected by 20%...but many retail investors lost 40-50% of their portfolio wealth because they were exposed to too much leverage. Wil...

If you have questions about inflation, interest rates, bond yields, Tech stocks, AI, recession risk and jobs, then this video is a must-watch. Today's guest earned well-deserved fame by successfully predicting the 2008 financial crisis. I'm very pleased and honored to welcome to the program economist and educator Dr Nouriel Roubini, the co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics. As he ma...

Today's guest is best known for his HOPE framework, a highly effective way to measure the health of the economy, and tell whether it's getting stronger or weaker. As we begin a new year -- with record housing unaffordability, trade wars and a cooling jobs market -- what does his framework tell us 2025 has in store? To find out, we have the good fortune to speak today with Michael Kantrowitz, chief...