Think Macro by H2O AM

Six months in, and the macro picture looks nothing like a quiet year. In this mid-year review, Vincent Chailley, CIO at H2O AM Group & Monaco S.A.M., sits down with Thomas Delabre, Portfolio Manager and macro specialist, to take stock of a first half shaped by the Iran war, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the return of the AI theme with a vengeance. Three worlds, three very different...

In this new episode of ThinkMacro presented by Babak Abrar, Vincent Chailley (CIO of H2O AM Group and H2O Monaco S.A.M), discusses the macroeconomic fallout from the conflict in Iran and its implications for global growth and markets. Behind the immediate shock, the discussion dives into the growing vulnerabilities of the US economy - from constrained fiscal and monetary buffers to softening consu...

In this episode of ThinkMacro , Vincent Chailley, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of H2O AM Group, explores the transformation of Japan’s economy after three decades of deflation and stagnation. He traces the country’s evolution from the 1980s bubble collapse through Abenomics reforms to today’s return of sustainable, organic growth. The episode examines how deep structural changes in labor markets...

Fueled by stimulus and debt, the U.S. economy appears resilient — but the foundations may be far weaker than they seem. Vincent Chailley, H2O AM Group CIO breaks down the drivers of this artificial high and the risks behind it: how long can America sustain its growth on borrowed momentum? This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solici...

Between the loss of effectiveness of economic policies in the United States, European resilience, China's transition and the rise of emerging markets, our new episode of Think Macro explores the macroeconomic dynamics that are reshaping the global balance. A two-way discussion with Vincent Chailley, CIO of H2O AM Group, and Thomas Delabre, portfolio manager and macro specialist, on a more diverse...

In this episode of  Think Macro , Vincent Chailley, CIO of H2O AM Group, explores an unusual market dynamic: central banks are cutting policy rates, yet long-term yields keep rising. This reversal is no coincidence - it reflects investors demanding a higher term premium in response to renewed concerns over debt sustainability, persistent inflation, and weakening institutional credibility. We analy...

In this episode of  Think Macro , Vincent Chailley, Group CIO of H2O AM, analyses the global AI investment boom and its macroeconomic implications. As trillions flow into data centres and big tech races to dominate the future, can these colossal investments truly extend US growth, or are they masking the next slowdown?  The AI Innovation Cycle: Invest Now or Die Later  explores whether today’s tec...

Europe has gained resilience since the sovereign debt crisis: a stabilising common currency, low unemployment, and debt held largely by domestic institutions. Yet behind this reassuring façade, growth remains stagnant at barely above 1% per year. Declining competitiveness is gradually undermining the continent’s commercial independence.   In light of this, the challenge is clear: Europe must reviv...

After decades of US economic exceptionalism, driven by consumption, innovation, and financial dominance, cracks are appearing in the model. The return of inflation is constraining the Fed in its ability to sufficiently ease financial conditions in a downturn, and the US Treasury in its capacity to stimulate the economy without triggering a negative reaction from investors.   With fewer economic le...