The Writ

When the Conservatives launched their leadership race earlier this year, the date to name a leader was set with at least one factor in mind: the need to have a leader in place in case the party headed into an election in the fall. But now that the Liberals and New Democrats have signed a deal that could extend the life of this Parliament to 2025, the Conservative leadership campaign’s urgency has...

It’s not always easy to recognize when something big is happening — something that could be remembered for a long time as a turning point. Could the Liberal and NDP confidence and supply agreement be that kind of turning point? Since 2004, Canadians have elected minority governments in five of seven federal elections and we’ve had majority government for only eight of the last 18 years. If minorit...

On Tuesday, voters in the riding of Fort McMurray–Lac La Biche elected Brian Jean as their next MLA, the latest development in a political drama that could cost Premier Jason Kenney his leadership. Running as a United Conservative Party candidate, Jean was always the heavy favourite to win the seat. But this is not necessarily a win for the governing United Conservatives, as Jean was — like all ot...

A lot can change in two weeks in politics. The rules of the Conservative leadership race are now set and the contours of the contest are starting to come into focus as a number of candidates throw their hats into the ring. There will be no coronation for Pierre Poilievre, as Leslyn Lewis and Jean Charest (along with Roman Baber) declare their candidacies and Patrick Brown might not be far behind....

With just 90 days to go before election day in Ontario, the parties at Queen’s Park are already in campaign mode. But, the legislature is still sitting — and will keep sitting for another two months or so. The Ontario Progressive Conservatives seem to be planning to use every day to their advantage, running advertisements and pushing the budget date to the end of April, just before the writs will...

We’re still waiting to find out when the next leader of the Conservative Party will be chosen and what requirements will need to be met by prospective contestants. But we do know that Ottawa-area MP Pierre Poilievre says he is running and that a number of other candidates — including former Progressive Conservative leader and Quebec premier Jean Charest — are mulling a bid. This will be the third...

The protesters who have blockaded borders and occupied Ottawa over the last few weeks have had real impacts on the lives of those who depend on cross-border trade and those who live in the nation’s capital. They have also had an impact on politics in this country, changing Canadians’ views of both the prime minister over his handling of the crisis and the Conservative Party over the positions they...

On Tuesday, voters in the northern Saskatchewan riding of Athabasca will be heading to the polls in a provincial byelection. This came about after NDP MLA Buckley Belanger resigned the seat to run for the federal Liberals in the last election. That run wasn’t successful, and now the New Democrats are hoping to hold a seat they have only lost once since 1975. This vote comes just days after Premier...

Things escalated quickly this week, with Erin O’Toole losing a caucus vote on Wednesday that cost him his leadership of the Conservative Party. O’Toole is out, Candice Bergen is in as interim leader and a new leadership contest — the third since 2017 — is about to get under way. There’s a lot to discuss here. What led to Erin O’Toole’s swift and sudden downfall? What does this mean for the Conserv...

In the last federal election, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole made a play to woo working class voters to his party — a party that has not always been a friend to organized labour. Then, last fall Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced a minimum wage hike with labour leaders in attendance. So, what’s going on with the labour vote? To help explain the role of organized labour in past and future electi...

In a little over three months, the 2022 Ontario election campaign will get started. Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives will be seeking re-election for the first time after their 2018 victory. The polls suggest it could be a hotly-contested race, with not only the PCs in contention but also Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats and the Liberals under Steven Del Duca. To help break down how the parties...

Since the Liberals came to power in 2015, Dan Arnold has been the man keeping tabs on public opinion in the Prime Minister’s Office. He’s also acted as the Liberal Party’s pollster in three election campaigns, watching the numbers as Justin Trudeau led the Liberals to three consecutive victories. After six years, Arnold is making the leap back to the private sector, returning to his old home at Po...

In this final episode of The Writ Podcast for 2021, I’m joined by Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to put our powers of prediction to the test! The game is simple: we set a number for an upcoming political event and then have to decide whether we think the result will be over or under that number. For example, the share of the vote the Ontario Progressive Conservatives will get in the June pr...

This week on 2021’s last regular edition of The Writ podcast: Polls of the week * Polling from Léger gives us an update on what Canadians think of the pandemic, as well as how their governments are doing handling it. * As the Liberals announce a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Olympics, new data from the Angus Reid Institute suggests Canadians’ views on the issue are complicated — but that they...

This week on The Writ podcast: Polls of the week * An update from Abacus Data on federal politics, including what Canadians thought of the throne speech, if they thought anything at all. * In Quebec, François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec remains on track for a landslide in next year’s election, according to Léger . * In Atlantic Canada, three governments are boasting high satisfaction ratings...

This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * The House re-elects its speaker and hears a throne speech. * Former NDP MP Pierre Nantel is trying to make a comeback with his third party in as many years. * Erin O’Toole and Jason Kenney hold on as party leaders. * Yukon’s minority government survives a confidence vote. * The Greens have a new interim leader: Amita Kuttner. Polls of the week * The nex...

This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Erin O’Toole faces a leadership challenge from a senator, who he boots from the Conservative caucus. * A threshold is reached to force an earlier vote on Jason Kenney’s leadership. * The governing PCs score a big win in a P.E.I. byelection . The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or...

This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Quebec holds its municipal elections, with Valérie Plante beating Denis Coderre in the race to be Montreal’s mayor by a bigger margin than expected. * The leader of the Nova Scotia NDP announces he’ll be stepping down. * Another right-wing splinter party hopes to make waves in Ontario’s provincial election in June. The Writ is a reader-supported publica...

This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * The third quarter fundraising numbers are in , and the Conservatives have raised the most money (again), but the Liberals and Bloc Québécois set new records. * Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer is back to give us the latest in Ontario political news. Check out her newsletter here . * Last weekend, the Manitoba PCs named their new leader and on Tues...

This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * The new federal cabinet has been sworn-in , and it includes two ministers who won their seats by tiny margins. * Nunavut holds its territorial election , with new faces in half of the assembly’s seats. * The results of Alberta’s referendum and senatorial votes are in . * The Manitoba PCs will announce their next leader , and the province’s new premier,...

This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Alberta makes history , electing a woman as mayor of Calgary and someone of South Asian origin as mayor of Edmonton for the first time. * Elections Canada announces how many seats each province will have after the next re-distribution is completed. * Alison Coffin r esigns as leader of the Newfoundland and Labrador NDP after party delegates vote in favo...

This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Annamie Paul is still leader of the Green Party, at least until some (more) legal issues are settled . * Judicial recounts confirm the election results in two federal ridings. * Nova Scotia finally sets a fixed election date — in the summer? * Dave Cournoyer of Daveberta.ca and the Daveberta Podcast joins the show to discuss the upcoming municipal, sena...

In case you missed it already this week, I’ve started my series of post-election analyses of each party’s performance. Check them out below (subscribers only): * For the Liberals, a win’s a win — but also a warning * Conservatives still losing where they need to win This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Erin O’Toole holds a meeting with his new caucus for the first time and emerges with his...

This week on The Writ podcast: In the news * Annamie Paul resigns as Green Party leader. * The Liberals won the mail ballots — and it could have mattered a lot had the election been closer. Read more here. * The polls (mostly) nailed the election, again. Read more here. Polls of the week * A post-election “exit poll” from Léger shows us what motivated people to vote for each party. Questions and a...

This week on The Writ podcast, Aaron Wherry , senior writer with the CBC and author of Promise and Peril: Justin Trudeau in Power , joins me to discuss the results of Monday’s election. In the news * Will this have been the last election for Trudeau and what will he do with this next term in office? * The Conservatives and the decisions they need to make about where to go next with the party — mor...