The Writ

Will Joe Biden’s visit to Ottawa this week be his last as U.S. president? With the 2024 election looming, it is still an open question whether or not Biden will run again as the Democratic nominee. If he does, who will be his opponent? And, if it is Donald Trump again, can he beat him a second time? Those are questions for the future. For now, the focus will be on the state of U.S.-Canada relation...

Has the Chinese election interference moved the dial in the polls? And what are each party’s incentives (or disincentives) in forcing an election this spring? What about where things stand ahead of the upcoming Alberta election or in the midst of Prince Edward Island’s campaign? And what to make of an upset in a Quebec byelection this week? Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com (and L’actualité an...

Canada’s smallest province wasn’t supposed to hold its next election until the fall, but earlier this week Premier Dennis King pulled the plug on his government and set April 3 as the date for Prince Edward Island’s provincial election. There’s plenty to watch as this campaign unfolds. Will King’s gamble pay off for his Progressive Conservatives? Can the Greens repeat their breakthrough from 2019...

With an election only a few months away, this week’s Alberta budget can’t be anything but an election budget. Will Premier Danielle Smith’s plan for the province help her win in May, or does it provide an opening for Rachel Notley and her New Democrats? To break down what the budget means for Alberta and the election, I’m joined this week by Elise von Scheel , the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter...

The polls haven’t been in agreement lately, so where do things really stand? What role does health care play in public opinion and politics — both at the federal and provincial levels? How are things looking ahead of Alberta’s provincial election, and what about those reports about Chinese interference in the 2021 federal vote? Joining me to tackle all of these questions are three party pollsters,...

From billions of dollars in new healthcare spending to what seems like an endless stream of Chinese balloons and/or extraterrestrial incursions into Canadian airspace, there’s plenty of news to discuss in federal politics. Plus, there’s that bombshell resignation of John Tory in Toronto. So, joining me to chat about it all this week is the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and Shannon Proudfoot of The Globe and...

The Ontario Liberals are looking for a new leader. Four potential candidates from within their provincial and federal ranks have expressed an interest. Also thinking about it? Mike Schreiner, leader of the Green Party of Ontario. That’s because a group of Ontario Liberals think they’d be better off with Schreiner and have said so in a public letter. It’s a bizarre and unprecedented move for some f...

The results are in — and they’re surprising. Polling conducted by Pollara and covered at The Writ over the last two weeks showed who Canadians think was the greatest prime minister and opposition leader in our history. But the results didn’t line up with the usual rankings made by historians and political scientists. What does that say about how Canadians remember their own history? I’m joined thi...

Since Pierre Poilievre became the leader of the Conservative Party last September, his appearances in English-language media have been relatively infrequent and very targeted. But in Quebec, Poilievre has been much more present as he tries to get better known, and better liked, in the province. So what are the challenges Poilievre and the Conservatives face in Quebec — and what are their realistic...

While it might not have the drama and potential national repercussions of Alberta’s election in May, Manitoba’s provincial election in October could prove to be 2023’s big shift. The Progressive Conservatives have governed the province since 2016 and were re-elected under Brian Pallister in 2019. But the PCs have been trailing in the polls for years. A change at the top in late 2021, when Heather...

Barring an addition to 2023’s electoral calendar, the big political contest of this year will be Alberta’s provincial election. The polls are suggesting the race will be tight between Danielle Smith’s United Conservatives and Rachel Notley’s New Democrats — perhaps as tight as any election in Alberta in 30 years. Back on The Writ Podcast to set us up for the showdown is Elise von Scheel , the CBC’...

The Leader of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition is an underrated role in our parliamentary system. Whoever is in it normally tries to use it as an audition for the top job — but their function is a vital one in our democracy that is often overlooked. Until today. With the political season still a little quiet, the CBC’s Aaron Wherry has joined me to play a little game: Opposition Leader Draft! We’ll...

It’s that time of year again! Last year, Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com joined me for a little friendly competition to see who could best predict what would happen in politics in 2022. Well, the results are in — and the title is up for grabs again in 2023. So, join us for this game of over/under as we guess what will happen in federal politics next year as well as in the provincial election...

On Monday, the Liberals won the Mississauga–Lakeshore byelection, holding a seat that the Conservatives will need to win if they ever form a government. Do the results have any broader implications? And where do the federal parties sit as they end 2022 and look ahead to 2023? Plus — what to make of the Manitoba provincial byelection results in Kirkfield Park? Joining me this week to chat about it...

It’s been three months since Pierre Poilievre won the Conservative leadership race and took over as leader of the official opposition. So, it’s about time to see how he’s doing so far. To help me do that on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast , I’m joined again by Tim Powers of Summa Strategies and Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy . And, to guide our performance evaluation of the new Conserva...

Every decade, Canada’s electoral map has to be redrawn to account for the country’s growing and moving population. The decisions made by the non-partisan commissions have big implications for our democracy — and the political futures of our MPs. So how does this process work? And how is it not working as well as it could? Joining me this week to discuss this is Michael Pal, associate professor in...

It’s a big week at the Rouleau inquiry looking into the use of the Emergencies Act earlier this year, with cabinet ministers and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testifying. But has the inquiry changed any minds — and will Justice Paul Rouleau’s findings have any political consequences on the Liberals or the opposition parties? Speaking of which, one of those parties has chosen a new leader — sort of...

It’s time for the second question-and-answer episode of The Writ Podcast, in which I tackle a few questions submitted by subscribers to The Writ . Here’s a sampling of some of the questions answered in this episode: * Would a change of leader boost Liberal support? * How do Pierre Poilievre’s post-leadership polling numbers compare to his predecessors? * Does the Alberta NDP have a path to governm...

Labour tensions have been high in Ontario, after Doug Ford’s government brought in a bill that imposed a contract on education workers and banned them from going on strike, invoking the notwithstanding clause in the process. That didn’t prevent schools in much of the province from shutting down for two days and Ford subsequently backed down, promised to repeal the legislation and is back at the ne...

In the U.S. midterms on Tuesday, the Republicans are expected to take control of the House and the Democrats have little better than even odds of holding the Senate. But with rising polarization and election denialism, there’s more at stake in Tuesday’s vote than whether the red or blue team will come out ahead. Joining me on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast is Nathaniel Rakich , senior ele...

Is the way we choose our party leaders broken? With Danielle Smith becoming Alberta’s premier without the backing of caucus (or voters) and the B.C. NDP disqualifying Anjali Appadurai from its leadership race, thereby giving the contest to caucus favourite David Eby by default, there’s reason to think that it might be. Ballots were cast in municipal elections in Ontario and Manitoba this week, but...

The B.C. New Democrats were expecting a coronation. Instead, they got a controversy. Shortly after B.C. Premier John Horgan announced his impending resignation, it appeared that cabinet minister David Eby would be acclaimed as his replacement. Nearly the entire NDP caucus had lined-up behind Eby and no one else had come forward. That changed when climate activist Anjali Appadurai, who had run as a...

After a raucous campaign, Danielle Smith won the United Conservative Party leadership last Thursday and was sworn in as the new premier of Alberta on Tuesday. That was the easy part. Now, Smith faces keeping together a caucus that has not always lived up to the “united” in the party name, following through on some of her controversial leadership campaign promises and preparing for a general electi...

As expected, the Coalition Avenir Québec won a big majority government in Monday’s provincial election. But it was only expected because of the polls — because the polls turned out to be right. The polling firm that has one of the best track records over the last few years has been Léger, with near-perfect calls not only in the Quebec election but in the Ontario election in June and the last two f...

François Legault and the Coalition Avenir Québec started the 2022 Quebec election campaign with a big lead in the polls. And that’s where they are ending it — despite themselves. But while another CAQ majority looks very likely, the campaign hasn’t answered perhaps the biggest question we had when it began — are Quebec’s politics in the midst of a re-alignment as the Conservatives and Québec Solid...