The Weekly Rebalance

🚀 The surprising insight this week: AI may be here to stay, but the price investors pay still matters. In Weekly Rebalance #38, Ethan and Garrett break down SpaceX volatility, Micron’s sharp move lower, and why richly valued tech names can swing hard when expectations get questioned. They also discuss the US-Iran conflict’s impact on inflation, the K-shaped economy, and why dividend aristocrats h...

A surprising insight from this week: high-net-worth investors are treating real assets, collectibles, and alternatives as a serious portfolio allocation—not just a hobby. 📈 In Weekly Rebalance #37, Nick and Ethan break down a volatile market backdrop: strong jobs data, higher yields, inflation pressure, the Fed’s next move, geopolitical risk, and the latest expectations around the SpaceX IPO. 🚀...

🎰 Sports betting is exploding in popularity, but are gambling stocks actually good investments? This week, Nicholas and Garrett break down why companies like DraftKings and other betting platforms are still struggling to consistently turn profits despite billions flowing into sports gambling. 📉📈We also cover the latest market rally, surging small caps, semiconductor momentum, consumer sentiment...

📈 Treasury yields are surging — but data center REITs are still riding the AI wave. In this episode of The Weekly Rebalance, Nick and Ethan break down the growing tension between rising borrowing costs and massive AI infrastructure demand. We cover why REITs are highly interest-rate sensitive, the bull vs. bear case for data center REITs, and how companies like Equinix, Digital Realty, and Iron M...

🚨 Markets are hitting fresh highs—but is a major Fed regime change about to reshape everything? In this episode of The Weekly Rebalance, Ethan Dunbar and Nicholas Cargill break down the surprising strength in equities, AI and semiconductor momentum, emerging market leadership, and the growing uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve. 📈 They dive into Kevin Warsh’s potential impact on monetary...

🚨 The market staged a massive reversal this week, with the S&P 500 hitting new all-time highs while concerns around private credit continue to grow. In this episode of The Weekly Rebalance, Nick and Ethan break down the surprising strength in earnings season, Disney’s consumer signals, the Fed’s historic 8-4 vote split, and why private credit may face its first real stress test. 📈💳We also d...

Markets are hitting new highs—but beneath the surface, the economy is splitting in two 📉📈. In this episode, we break down the K-shaped economy, where wealthy consumers drive growth while others rely on buy now, pay later just to keep up. We cover strong earnings (80% beats), AI-driven growth, and why markets are ignoring geopolitical risks like $110 oil. Then we dig into the real story: rising c...

Cannabis stocks look cheap—but the real reason might surprise you. 🌿📉 In this episode, we break down the massive tax burden (280E) that’s crushing profitability across the cannabis industry and why a potential shift from Schedule I to Schedule III could change everything. We also cover the broader market rebound, NASDAQ’s historic run, and why investors may be underestimating both opportunity an...

The market just erased a geopolitical shock in 32 days—and history says that’s not unusual. 📈In this episode, we break down the rapid recovery following the Iran conflict and why markets often rebound faster than investors expect. From S&P performance to VIX compression and energy sector reversals, we connect real-time data with historical precedents like 9/11 and the Gulf War. We also dig in...

The surprising reality? Most IPO investors underperform—even when the biggest names hit the market. 📉This week, we break down rising market volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and what it means for investors right now. Then we dive into the 2026 IPO pipeline—OpenAI, SpaceX, Anthropic—and answer the key question: should you actually buy on day one? We unpack the data behind IPO performance,...

Growth stocks just got a lot more interesting—and maybe a lot cheaper. 📉➡️📈 In this week’s Rebalance, we break down a volatile Q1 where the NASDAQ briefly entered correction territory, yet high-quality names like NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are now trading at surprisingly attractive valuations. We dive into what’s driving the selloff, why value and international held up better, and wheth...

Recession-proof stocks might not be what you expect… 👀 In this episode, we break down why true luxury brands like Ferrari and Hermes can outperform during downturns—while “aspirational luxury” gets hit hard. We cover the latest market selloff, inflation pressures from oil, and then dive into a powerful framework: true vs premium vs aspirational luxury—and why it matters for portfolio construction...

Gold is supposed to be the ultimate safe haven—so why hasn’t it acted like one? 🤔 In this episode, we break down the surprising behavior of gold and defense stocks during recent geopolitical tensions, and what it actually means for portfolios. We cover market volatility, international outperformance, and why defense stocks (historically strong post-conflict) are suddenly flat. Then we dive into g...

Markets turned volatile this week as geopolitical tensions with Iran pushed oil prices higher and triggered a surprising shift between value and growth stocks. 📉📈 In The Weekly Rebalance #25, Ethan and Nick break down what’s really happening beneath the surface of the markets. Value stocks have dominated in 2026 so far, but recent volatility has sparked a temporary shift toward growth. The conve...

Markets opened the week with major volatility after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran—but the surprising takeaway might be how quickly markets historically recover from geopolitical shocks. 📉➡️📈 In this episode of The Weekly Rebalance, we break down the market reaction, including oil’s surge, gold’s unexpected drop, and why tech held up better than expected. We also analyze the Strait of Hormuz r...

🚨 The biggest surprise in markets right now? AI may be boosting industrials, energy, and infrastructure more than Big Tech itself. In The Weekly Rebalance #24, we break down the major market rotation happening early in 2026. While mega-cap tech faces pressure, sectors tied to the AI infrastructure buildout—industrials, energy, materials, and data center REITs—are surging. We also explore the unex...

Surprising insight: After fees, a 100% downside buffered ETF may only offer ~1% more than a 1-year Treasury—if markets cooperate. 📉➡️📈In Episode 23 of The Weekly Rebalance, Nick and Ethan break down buffered ETFs (defined outcome ETFs)—how they’re built (long call + long put + short call), how caps and downside protection work, and why RIAs are increasingly using them as Treasury or bond ladder...

The surprising shift in 2026? The “boring” parts of the market are quietly outperforming. 📊 In this episode of The Weekly Rebalance, we break down the early-year rotation away from mega-cap tech and into value, international equities, and smaller names. With the top 10 stocks now making up nearly 40% of the S&P 500 , concentration risk is back in focus—especially as valuations hover well abov...

Markets are off to a very different start this year—and that’s driving meaningful changes in how we’re positioning portfolios. In this week’s Weekly Rebalance, we break down:- Why small caps, mid caps, dividends, and international markets are outperforming U.S. large-cap growth- What the recent pullback in mega-cap AI names really means (and why AI is not “over”)- The surprise nomination of Kevin...

Markets turned volatile this week as geopolitical headlines resurfaced, including renewed discussion around the U.S. potentially acquiring Greenland. In this episode of The Weekly Rebalance, we break down the market selloff and rebound, rising volatility, and why gold and silver surged. We also explore historical examples of U.S. territory acquisitions and what they can (and can’t) tell us about t...

In this week’s Weekly Rebalance, we break from the usual format to explore an important question investors are asking in 2026: 👉 Why are gold and silver hitting all-time highs while luxury collectibles struggle to keep up? We cover:- Broad market performance to start the year- Gold and silver’s continued strength as monetary assets- Why watches, luxury goods, and collectibles peaked post-COVID- H...

In this episode of The Weekly Rebalance , we break down how financial markets actually respond to geopolitical shocks — and why reacting emotionally can hurt long-term portfolios. We cover the market reaction to recent events in Venezuela , discuss why Bitcoin surged while equities rallied , and examine which energy stocks benefited (and why those gains faded quickly) . Using historical data, we e...

In this New Year’s edition of Weekly Rebalance, Ethan and Nick wrap up 2025 with a deep dive into global monetary policy shifts and their impact on markets. From the Fed’s dovish stance to 850 basis points of cumulative rate cuts across major economies, we explore what this means for risk assets, fixed income, and your portfolio heading into 2026. You’ll learn: Why global rate cuts in 2025 were th...

In this festive edition of The Weekly Rebalance, Ethan Dunbar and Nicholas Cargill dive into the seasonality of markets and the much-discussed Santa Claus Rally. With the S&P 500 hitting record highs and gold and silver surging, we explore what’s driving optimism, how the Fed’s dovish tone is shaping risk assets, and whether chasing seasonal trends makes sense for your portfolio. Timestamps 00...

In this episode of The Weekly Rebalance, Ethan Dunbar and Nick Cargill dive into one of the most overlooked stories of 2025: silver’s incredible 120% rally. We break down why silver outperformed gold, Bitcoin, and even the S&P 500, explore the industrial and investment demand driving this surge, and discuss what it means for 2026. Plus, we touch on market rotation away from the Magnificent 7,...