The Weekly Insight

There’s a lot of speculation about the new army of 87,000 auditors authorized for the I.R.S. in the recently passed “Inflation Reduction Act”. But how likely is it these roles will be filled? And how quickly? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-tax-man-cometh/

It finally happened…good inflation data! You’re well aware that we’ve been writing about and talking about this issue extensively over the last several months.  Now that we have the data in our hands, it’s a good time to look at what it really means. Is this a flash in the pan before more bad data comes our way? Do we have reason to believe the easing of inflation will continue? Read more here: ht...

The last few months have been a constantly repeating cycle of inflation, Fed Policy, and fears of a recession. Right or wrong, that drumbeat seems to have slowed as enter the end of the summer. The markets have come up nicely from the bottom, with the S&P up nearly 8% over the last month. That gives us some time to look down the field at the issues that may impact the markets between now and t...

9.1% inflation and bank earnings made for an interesting week last week. But the market held in nicely, and we’re now seeing one of the strongest arguments we’ve seen yet on inflation peaking. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-stress-test/

It was another solid week in the markets last week.  The mood seems to be good coming off the holiday break.  But the next two weeks are going to be vitally important to how the market behaves for the rest of the summer.  There is a lot of new data and information coming out between now and next Wednesday which will determine if this market has found a bottom or if more rocky weeks lie ahead.  Rea...

Happy (belated) Independence Day! We hope you had a wonderful holiday weekend! A lot has changed in the 246 years since the most important document in history was signed. We thought it might be a good time to take a look back and compare the world today vs. the world 246 years ago. The gains in health, wealth and safety are stunning. And they stand in direct contrast to the “sentiment” people have...

The Fed’s 75-basis point rate hike a week ago – and the justification for it – has made the market happy in the short-term.  But the longer-term consequences of tying interest rate policy to sentiment?  Probably not a good idea.  We’re going to need some good inflation data to get the course reset. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-new-rules-energy/    

Last week was a very important – and very painful – week in the markets. We saw some hope on Friday, but we now find ourselves officially in bear market territory following the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by 0.75% last week. That decision – which was not based on the Fed’s longstanding economic analysis – was initially well received. In fact, it was what the market was practically deman...

You probably remember the old “Choose Your Own Adventure” books from your youth. The book would get to a critical juncture and the reader would get to pick a path for the protagonist.  You’d then skip to the relevant section and read on about the impact of your choice.  Friday’s inflation report offered the same editorial choices to investors.  Were you looking for bad news? It was there.  Optimis...

We find ourselves at an interesting crossroads this week. Typically, the start of summer means a quieter time in the market. Investors, market makers, and pundits all tend to take some time off and focus a bit less on portfolios. But is that going to happen this summer? Maybe. But the drama and volatility we’ve felt so far this year is going to have to work itself out. And there’s some pretty soli...

Finally! We had a great week in the market last week as all major indices broke their losing streak. It was a nice way to go into the holiday weekend and validated our decision to put some extra money into equities as mentioned in last week’s memo. As much as we’d love to believe the market is only going up from here, it’s never that simple. So this week we take some time to look down the field at...

We’ve talked for weeks in the pages of our Weekly Insight Memo and on the Weekly Insight Podcast about the things driving fear in the market. Inflation, the Fed, the fear of a recession. Fear, it seems, can become its own self-fulfilling prophesy. We certainly saw that last week in the markets. But sometime we have to set aside the emotions and look at the facts. And the facts are this economy is...

Last week was inflation week in the market.  We finally got the inflation data we’ve been waiting for. But what we didn’t get was a definitive answer. Do you think inflation is waning? There was data to back that up. Do you think inflation is going to get worse? There was data to back that up as well. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-inflation-crossroads/  

Last week was the week the market had been waiting for: Fed Week. The result was what we would consider to be positive news from the Fed.  The market thought so, too...until it didn't. The end result? You probably got whiplash if you were watching the market closely! Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-whiplash/

We’ve harped on “Fear and Greed” over and over again. Why? They are two of the biggest drivers of capital flows into and out of the market each and every year. And more often than not, they are exactly the wrong motivation at the wrong time. It’s easy to recite the old Warren Buffett quote, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” and count it as sage wisdom. But it’s...

The Fed waiting game is upon us again.  The market reacted last week to Federal Reserve leaders (notably including Chairman Powell) stating that a 0.50% hike in rates at the May meeting was likely. That shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise, but the market is now officially locking that in. The big question – however – is not what the Fed does, but what Chairman Powell says after the meeting...

Inflation. Interest rates. COVID. Ukraine. Wash, rinse, repeat.  The impact of these issues on the market and economy have been discussed and debated time and again by every pundit known to man. But what if the end of the world isn’t coming? What if there are some reasons to be optimistic in the face of all of this “dire news”? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-memo...

A bill passed the U.S. House last week – called the Secure Act 2.0 – which is designed to improve the system for retirement savings. On its face, it has a lot of good things in it: better catch-up contribution rules, delaying required minimum distributions until 75, etc. But the problem is, no one wants to have an honest conversation with American workers about their expectations for retirement. R...

Every week it seems there’s something new the “financial gurus” on TV are fretting about. Last week, it was the “inverted yield curve” and the near certainty it means a looming recession? But does it? Is a recession really coming? Simply put, yes. A recession is coming. But that’s because a recession is ALWAYS coming! Over the last seventy years, we’ve had a recession, on average, every 6.4 years....

Just two years ago last week, the market bottomed during the original “COVID Correction”. It seems like there has been constant drama since then. COVID surges, a contested Presidential election, inflation, interest rate debates, war, etc., etc. Which is why last week seemed so…strange. Why? There wasn’t much drama! The market was up. The current dramas (inflation, Ukraine, interest rates, COVID) c...

The Fed has finally spoken.  It announced a 0.25% rate increase last week (expected). But they also released their “dot plot” for the next few years and it showed the potential for seven rate hikes this year.  The market seemed to appreciate the Fed’s aggressive approach to inflation and rallied for the week.  But what will that mean for the market long-term? We take a deeper dive into the Fed’s d...

This week is the tale of two titans: Powell vs. Putin. The war in Ukraine – and especially its impact on the energy economy – is being felt around the world. Its impact on inflation is starting to be felt and may make things worse before they get better. How the U.S. – and specifically the Fed – responds this week is going to set the table for how markets do for the rest of the year. We know the F...

Last week was a tale of wild swings in the market. Bad news on Ukraine? Markets down hard. Good news on the economy and interest rates? Markets up strongly. It truly was a tale of two markets. And, while the volatility continues today, there is reason to be optimistic about the economic situation here in the United States. Barring a true “Black Swan” event where NATO and Russia enter into direct c...

Russia’s war against Ukraine is playing out on two stages: the cities of Ukraine and boardrooms of banks and companies across Russia and the West. As the West has decided not to engage Russia in direct military confrontation, the sanctions battlefield is increasingly important. But is it enough? And what else is on the table? And how will it impact the U.S. markets and economy? We take a deep dive...

It was another volatile week in the markets. Why? Uncertainty. We’ve said it time and again that the market just can’t stand not knowing what’s going to happen. The good news? There is a time limit on this uncertainty. We’re going to know soon what is going to happen in Ukraine. We’re going to know by March 16th what’s going to happen with interest rates. And right now the market is pricing in the...