The Weekly Insight

We’ve avoided it for as long as we can, but it’s time…we have to talk about the election. As they say, elections have consequences – and this one likely will for the market as well. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-gridlock-is-good/

Feeling nauseous yet? The month of October has been a rollercoaster ride for the markets. But the end result after all of the drama of the first half of the month? The market is flat. Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-rollercoaster/

A client bumped us after the jobs report and subsequent volatility on Friday with this question: “So, a good jobs report is bad, and a bad jobs report is good?” That’s the upside down world in which we’re living. As we’ve been saying for months, the only thing that matters is the Fed and everything else is viewed through that lens.  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight...

We’ve spent a lot of time in the Weekly Insight discussing the issues here at home with inflation and the markets. But the U.S. is just 24% of the world economy. In our evermore interconnected world, the other 76% is going to have a lot to say about the path of our economy. Last week, that was made clear when the government of new U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss decided to cut taxes in the midst of...

Last week was one of those times when it is simply not fun to be an investor. Stocks, bonds, domestic, international…everything was down. The FOMC meeting left investors convinced rates are going higher – for longer – than expected. And Chairman Powell threatened a “policy induced recession”. So what are investors to do? Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/ the-weekly-insight-hold /

That was a tough inflation report. And it just kicks up the drama for this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.  What will Chairman Powell do? And what does this mean for the future? And when will inflation finally peak? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-wheres-the-peak/ 

The last few months have seen endless airplane analogies for the economy. “Soft landing”, “headwinds”, “turbulence”. But the truth is, our economy doesn’t have the simple choice of a good landing or a fiery crash. It’s always more complicated than that. This week, we look at what we’re hearing from the pilot (Chairman Powell) and how the market is reacting prior to the inflation data tomorrow. Rea...

New housing start data last month showed America is going to build 10% less homes this year than last (thank you, inflation & rising interest rates!). But did you know that even last year we didn’t build enough homes to keep up with new household formations? The U.S. has a 3.8 million unit deficit in housing. Does that mean there may still be some investment opportunities in this space despite...

We promised you last week the lazy days of summer were ending and a more dramatic period on the market was upon us.  Chairman Powell fired the starter pistol with his remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and, well, it’s safe to say the market didn’t love what it heard. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-pain

There’s a lot of speculation about the new army of 87,000 auditors authorized for the I.R.S. in the recently passed “Inflation Reduction Act”. But how likely is it these roles will be filled? And how quickly? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-tax-man-cometh/

It finally happened…good inflation data! You’re well aware that we’ve been writing about and talking about this issue extensively over the last several months.  Now that we have the data in our hands, it’s a good time to look at what it really means. Is this a flash in the pan before more bad data comes our way? Do we have reason to believe the easing of inflation will continue? Read more here: ht...

The last few months have been a constantly repeating cycle of inflation, Fed Policy, and fears of a recession. Right or wrong, that drumbeat seems to have slowed as enter the end of the summer. The markets have come up nicely from the bottom, with the S&P up nearly 8% over the last month. That gives us some time to look down the field at the issues that may impact the markets between now and t...

9.1% inflation and bank earnings made for an interesting week last week. But the market held in nicely, and we’re now seeing one of the strongest arguments we’ve seen yet on inflation peaking. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-stress-test/

It was another solid week in the markets last week.  The mood seems to be good coming off the holiday break.  But the next two weeks are going to be vitally important to how the market behaves for the rest of the summer.  There is a lot of new data and information coming out between now and next Wednesday which will determine if this market has found a bottom or if more rocky weeks lie ahead.  Rea...

Happy (belated) Independence Day! We hope you had a wonderful holiday weekend! A lot has changed in the 246 years since the most important document in history was signed. We thought it might be a good time to take a look back and compare the world today vs. the world 246 years ago. The gains in health, wealth and safety are stunning. And they stand in direct contrast to the “sentiment” people have...

The Fed’s 75-basis point rate hike a week ago – and the justification for it – has made the market happy in the short-term.  But the longer-term consequences of tying interest rate policy to sentiment?  Probably not a good idea.  We’re going to need some good inflation data to get the course reset. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-new-rules-energy/    

Last week was a very important – and very painful – week in the markets. We saw some hope on Friday, but we now find ourselves officially in bear market territory following the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by 0.75% last week. That decision – which was not based on the Fed’s longstanding economic analysis – was initially well received. In fact, it was what the market was practically deman...

You probably remember the old “Choose Your Own Adventure” books from your youth. The book would get to a critical juncture and the reader would get to pick a path for the protagonist.  You’d then skip to the relevant section and read on about the impact of your choice.  Friday’s inflation report offered the same editorial choices to investors.  Were you looking for bad news? It was there.  Optimis...

We find ourselves at an interesting crossroads this week. Typically, the start of summer means a quieter time in the market. Investors, market makers, and pundits all tend to take some time off and focus a bit less on portfolios. But is that going to happen this summer? Maybe. But the drama and volatility we’ve felt so far this year is going to have to work itself out. And there’s some pretty soli...

Finally! We had a great week in the market last week as all major indices broke their losing streak. It was a nice way to go into the holiday weekend and validated our decision to put some extra money into equities as mentioned in last week’s memo. As much as we’d love to believe the market is only going up from here, it’s never that simple. So this week we take some time to look down the field at...

We’ve talked for weeks in the pages of our Weekly Insight Memo and on the Weekly Insight Podcast about the things driving fear in the market. Inflation, the Fed, the fear of a recession. Fear, it seems, can become its own self-fulfilling prophesy. We certainly saw that last week in the markets. But sometime we have to set aside the emotions and look at the facts. And the facts are this economy is...

Last week was inflation week in the market.  We finally got the inflation data we’ve been waiting for. But what we didn’t get was a definitive answer. Do you think inflation is waning? There was data to back that up. Do you think inflation is going to get worse? There was data to back that up as well. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-inflation-crossroads/  

Last week was the week the market had been waiting for: Fed Week. The result was what we would consider to be positive news from the Fed.  The market thought so, too...until it didn't. The end result? You probably got whiplash if you were watching the market closely! Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-whiplash/

We’ve harped on “Fear and Greed” over and over again. Why? They are two of the biggest drivers of capital flows into and out of the market each and every year. And more often than not, they are exactly the wrong motivation at the wrong time. It’s easy to recite the old Warren Buffett quote, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” and count it as sage wisdom. But it’s...

The Fed waiting game is upon us again.  The market reacted last week to Federal Reserve leaders (notably including Chairman Powell) stating that a 0.50% hike in rates at the May meeting was likely. That shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise, but the market is now officially locking that in. The big question – however – is not what the Fed does, but what Chairman Powell says after the meeting...