The Weekly Fix

Corporate earnings may be in focus this week, but macro questions continue to weigh on bond markets. Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, shares his insights in this episode of The Weekly Fix.

In this episode of The Weekly Fix, Stephen Fitzsimmons, BlueBay Institutional Portfolio Manager, discusses how the reality of the data shows there is no evidence that the US economy needs lower rates any time soon.

Have prospects for strong fixed income returns this year been diminished by robust U.S economic data? Listen in as Andrzej Skiba, BlueBay Head of U.S. Fixed Income, discusses why this week’s release of CPI data will give us insight into the future decision making of the Fed.

Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team discusses how the strong but not too strong economic conditions have led to a positive environment for fixed income markets. Key points: Broadly speaking, the underlying technicals are very positive for corporate credit. Idiosyncratic risk in a few areas of the market have generated volatility. We experienced a higher defaul...

BlueBay Institutional Portfolio Manager Stephen Fitzsimmons discusses how investors are eagerly buying up new debt issuance.  While many investors appreciated the dovish commentary last week, not all data are cooperating.   The past months have certainly been a sustained busy period for the new issue market. Strong investor demand has helped drive credit spreads tighter. Chairman Po...

Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team discusses how investors were largely disappointed with the recent CPI reading, what we’re looking for in some key economic data releases this week, and how it might affect our positioning.  CPI came in hotter than market participants hoped and this drove yields higher across the US Treasury curve. The s...

BlueBay Head of US Fixed Income Andrzej Skiba discusses why investors will have to wait for additional evidence regarding a moderating inflation trend before the Fed acts to cut rates.  Strong growth, labor markets and inflation running hot are not a combination desired by the Fed. In terms of jobs, growth remained robust, but we’ve added fewer jobs than expected. Inflation remains sticky, wi...

BlueBay Senior Portfolio Manager Tim Leary discusses the factors that have led to higher yields this year and why we’re looking for the market to keep grinding. Key points: Spreads may be tighter, but yields are higher on the year. This may peak investor interest and we have seen high fund flows. This is likely a function of the market coming back towards the Fed’s path.  

BlueBay Institutional Portfolio Manager discusses what we’re looking for in some key economic data releases this week and how it might affect our positioning.   It’s a busy week on the economic calendar. Signs that the economy is doing better than expected may push rate cuts out further in the future. We’re paying special attention to the release of the Producer Consumption Expenditures (PCE)...

BlueBay Head of US Fixed Income Andrzej Skiba discusses how investors are dealing with recent trouble spots within the US commercial real estate issues and how we’re dealing with the turbulence.  In our judgement, US commercial real estate (CRE) will be a source of negative headlines in 2024. Several banks across the globe with significant US CRE exposure have reported increased provisioning....

BlueBay Head of US Fixed Income Andrzej Skiba discusses how investors are dealing with strong macro-economic data and heavy treasury issuance. The US economy continues to turn out strong results. It remains to be seen if softer data paves the way for rate cuts later in the year. The market continues to adjust its view on the timing and extent of rate cuts.

Stephen Fitzsimmons discusses how the comments coming out of FOMC meeting this week may well provide insight into the future direction of markets. Bond issuance is on a record setting pace in January. Compelling total return opportunities exist in fixed income. Although the market was early to rally as hard as it did in the end of 2023, the directionality of the rally is the correct one.  We...

Summary: BlueBay Senior Portfolio Manager Tim Leary explains why bond markets remain healthy following the retrenchment. Bond markets have given back the sharp gains achieved at the end of 2023. Technicals are quite strong and the market remains liquid and healthy. On the floating rate side of the coin, leveraged loan activity is robust.

In this week’s episode, hear Andrzej Skiba explain how expectations need to be reset after the rally to end 2023, but that opportunities abound.     Summary points: The sharp market rally has investors rethinking future return expectations. Significant rate cuts are priced in. When assessing market projections for early rate cuts, we see room for disappointment. On average, Investme...

In this week’s episode, hear Brandon Swensen recount the events that have made 2023 a very exciting year for investors.  Summary points: The year began against a backdrop of a resilient US economy but one saddled with high inflation. 2023 has included volatility from monetary policy, fiscal policy, domestic politics, geopolitics, and company specific events. Markets have rallied into the end...

Summary: This will be a busy week in the market as investors look to digest key data readings on key measures.  BlueBay Institutional Portfolio Manager Stephen Fitzsimmons outlines the significance of the news and our expectations. Key points: ·         Upcoming data releases will provide further clarity to investors. ·     &nbs...

Summary: The BlueBay US Fixed Income team is seeing strong demand in the secondary market for new corporate bond issuance.  Investors seem enticed by the high current coupons, the strong macro-economic background and the prospect of future rate cuts, explains Stephen Fitzsimmons. Key points- High current coupons and levels of carry on high quality corporate debt are enticing to investors.&nbs...

Summary: Senior Portfolio Manager Tim Leary discusses how we’ve entered a quiet period for the markets as new issuance is low and there is little for companies to refinance.  The key is to remain focused on the bigger picture. Key points: We’ve entered a quiet time on the market calendar. There’s little new issuance or refinancing going on. We’re focused on the bigger picture of disinflation,...

Stephen Fitzsimmons discusses how the market was caught flat-footed by last week’s CPI data that was below expectations and markets rallied as a result.   Inflation data was announced as having been below expectations across the board. Meanwhile, retail sales showed material signs of cooling.  Interest rates and stocks rallied hard. ·        ...

Senior portfolio Manager Tim Leary discusses why public investment grade and high yield is attractive once again. It’s time to give public large, liquid, publicly traded corporate bonds a closer look in this low default environment. Yields are up, inflation has retreated, and the Fed is nearly done raising rates. You haven’t missed your opportunity to profit from the current environment.

In this week’s episode, hear Andrzej Skiba describe how a few economic data points and softer language from Chair Powell helped move yields back closer to 4.5%. Concerns about over supply and peak rates have receded.  We would argue that risks are balanced. While the Fed may decide to raise rates again in December, we do see evidence of a slowdown.

With so much clouding the investment picture at the moment, Tim Leary, BlueBay Senior Portfolio Manager at RBC GAM, goes off the beaten path to discuss an interesting corner of the market in the episode of The Weekly Fix.

With short-term rates holding many attributes in the current environment, Stephen Fitzsimmons, BlueBay Institutional Portfolio Manager at RBC GAM, discusses how to enhance your portfolio with current coupon Agency mortgage-backed securities on today’s episode of The Weekly Fix. 

In today’s episode of The Weekly Fix, Tim Leary, BlueBay Senior Portfolio Manager, acknowledges the importance of the rise of geopolitical risk. And while that macro narrative continues to garner headlines, earnings season has kicked off. Four of the eight largest US banks have reported, and the numbers have come in better than expected. Time will tell, but financials seem to have the situation un...

In today’s episode of The Weekly Fix, Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager, BlueBay US Fixed Income, discusses the impact of geopolitical risk, the likelihood of additional rate hikes, the macro backdrop for the 3Q earnings season and what it all means for the market.