The Weekly Fix

Mindy Gudmundson, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explores how the longest-ever government shutdown has led to a data backlog, intensifying bond market volatility and uncertainty surrounding December’s FOMC rate decision. The 43-day government shutdown delayed critical economic data releases, distorting analysis and increasing market volatility as inves...

With more volatility potentially on the horizon, we believe US High Yield bonds can provide a ‘port in the storm’. Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM’s BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explains how US High Yield (HY) bonds have continued to stand out as a reliable option for generating income while managing rate risk during periods of market uncertainty. The US HY index currently provid...

Big Tech is reshaping the bond market. Are investors ready for Silicon Valley’s mega issuances? Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, discusses a tectonic shift in Silicon Valley’s funding strategy. Once cash-rich with pristine balance sheets, major tech companies are now tapping the investment-grade bond market to finance their soaring AI-related capital expenditures....

Divided Fed, uncertain future: Powell’s cautious tone raises questions about policy shifts ahead. Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager with RBC GAM’s BlueBay US Fixed Income team, highlights the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and its impact on cash strategies amid ongoing economic uncertainties. The Fed lowered the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, while signaling caution regarding De...

Systemic risk, or just unusual events? Recent market turbulence leaves some questions about how long high valuations and tight spreads will continue. Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC BlueBay’s US Fixed Income team, discusses the current market landscape and opportunities for active managers. Equities at record highs and tight credit spreads indicate market resilience, despite...

Credit cycle deterioration? Not so fast- new earnings reports from the banking sector ease fears of financially stretched consumers and companies. John Guarnera, Senior Corporate Analyst on RBC BlueBay’s US Fixed Income Team, explores the latest data from US banks and an outlook on recent credit market developments. Third-quarter earnings from major US banks revealed stable asset quality and impro...

US High Yield continues to perform well this quarter- but geopolitical volatility demands strategic positioning. In this edition of #TheWeeklyFix, Charlie Whinery, Portfolio Manager on RBC BlueBay’s US Fixed Income Team, breaks down Q3's strong performance and how his team is navigating current market dynamics. US HY delivered solid 2.4% returns in Q3 with robust $140B issuance, low leverage level...

Amid a shifting market landscape, fixed income strategies are evolving to uncover value in key sectors. Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income at RBC GAM, shares how his team is navigating today’s market dynamics while seeking to position for strong returns in 2026. Favoring curve steepeners for U.S. interest rate exposure, with resilience expected unless inflation drops significantly or...

New GDP data shows economic growth, but labor market and political risks keep markets on edge. Mindy Gudmundson, Institutional Portfolio Manager with RBC BlueBay’s US Fixed Income team, breaks down the latest economic data and key developments shaping markets. Second-quarter GDP revised to 3.8%, driven by strong consumer spending, while jobless claims fell, easing labor market concerns. This week’...

The Fed’s rate cut is in, just as the market expected – what’s next for the future of monetary policy? Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager with RBC BlueBay’s U.S. Fixed Income team, unpacks the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut, economic projections, and what it all means for investors. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the target range to 4.00–4.25%, with projections showing stronger gro...

Can Fed policy ease the housing affordability crisis? Teri Savage, Senior Mortgage Trader with RBC BlueBay’s Fixed Income team, explores the pressures on the U.S. housing market and the potential impact of upcoming policy changes. Home prices continue to outpace income growth, while 30-year mortgage rates remain stubbornly above 6%, pushing affordability to record lows. The Federal Reserve is expe...

Senior portfolio manager Tim Leary discusses how weaker job growth and strong bond market activity, coupled with tight spreads, support expectations for a September rate cut and continued favorable conditions for fixed-income markets. Weaker job data and key events like Jackson Hole and August payrolls pave the way for a September rate cut. Strong technicals in the US bond markets persist, with si...

Corporate credit spreads are at historic lows – will September’s bond supply shake up the market? Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, analyzes the tightest corporate bond spreads in decades and highlights potential opportunities. Investment-grade corporate bond spreads are near 80 bps over Treasuries, driven by strong demand despite slim risk compensation. With $130-...

Fed Chair Powell excited investors last Friday with hints of a potential September rate cut. What’s next for credit markets? Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager with RBC BlueBay’s Fixed Income team, breaks down the market reaction to the Jackson Hole Symposium. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the potential for a September rate cut, citing balanced labor markets and easing inflation ri...

All eyes are on Jackson Hole this week as investors digest recent economic data and look ahead to the Fed’s next moves. Mindy Gudmundson, Institutional Portfolio Manager with RBC BlueBay’s U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down the latest inflation data, rate cut expectations, and what to watch ahead of Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Headline inflation dipped to 2.7%, nearing the Fed’s target, b...

BlueBay Senior Trader Peter Keenan highlights key themes following the most recent inflation data release.  Inflation Data Overview : July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month (headline) and 0.3% excluding food and energy, with year-over-year increases of 2.7% (headline) and 3.1% (core), aligning with expectations. Market and Fed Expectations : Markets now price a 96% chanc...

BlueBay Portfolio Manager Laurie Mount discusses how the fallout from Friday’s lousy jobs report could dominate Washington and Wall Street for some time. The July jobs report fell significantly below expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added versus the forecasted 104,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, signaling a potential softening in the labor market. Treasuries rallied sharply, and...

Investment-grade bonds are having a strong year, but investors aren’t getting complacent. Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, discusses how portfolio managers are hedging their credit exposure despite a compelling market environment. Yields remain attractive, inflows are strong, and performance is solid—even with tight credit spreads. Managers are staying cautious, h...

Fed policy and credit markets are at a pivotal moment. Andrzej Skiba, BlueBay Head of U.S. Fixed Income, gives an update on monetary policy trends and their effects on the market: The Fed is unlikely to cut rates in July but may deliver 1-2 cuts by year-end, depending on trade developments and inflation trends. Treasury markets reflect expectations of more aggressive rate cuts under future Fed lea...

TACO trade or GAIN trade? Markets brace for tariffs and bank earnings. Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay US Fixed Income team, dives into the macro and trade themes driving markets as the summer lull in new issuance takes hold. Markets are eyeing the August 1st deadline for potential 30% tariffs on Europe, with optimism that a resolution will be reached. US GSIBs and regional bank...

As we pass the mid-year mark, @Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income, breaks down how fixed income markets are shaping up for the second half of the year. With spreads at multi-year tights and bullish market positioning, the opportunity set is narrowing, but there’s still value to be found for active investors. From reallocating to sectors like insurance and utilities to exploring subor...

Don’t fight the Fed – or the American consumer. Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, highlights the resilience of the U.S. consumer, with cash balances at a record $21.7 trillion and credit card utilization rates back to normal. As High Yield bonds outperform and spreads tighten, the strength of the American consumer could drive inflows into credit markets, of...

Strong inflows. Low issuance. High cash balances. Peter Keenan, Senior Trader on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explores why High Yield is holding strong. $5.3B in YTD inflows, led by fast-moving ETF money Limited new issuance – currently -18% vs. last year Elevated cash balances and muted dealer inventories If geopolitical risks ease and issuance remains slow, spreads could have room to tigh...

Debt ceiling drama. Bill curve dislocation. Fed in holding pattern. Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay US Fixed Income team, breaks down the latest on debt ceiling negotiations and explains how the shrinking supply of Treasury bills is creating distortions in the bill curve, noting yields on some maturities topping 4.3%. With record cash in money market funds and the Fed expected to st...

Tight spreads. Strong demand. What gives? Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explains why Investment Grade credit is attracting yield-hungry investors despite spreads returning to their tighter range. He also highlights where sector dispersion is creating value and why active, selective positioning is essential in today’s market. It’s a bond buyer’s market, if you k...