The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

That September US payrolls report has triggered renewed selling in global bond markets. With yields threatening to hit fresh multi-year highs and investors scrambling for reasons behind the sell-off, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann tell David Wilder just worried we should be and what’s likely to happen next.  In this special episode of The We...

Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown provides a sneak peek of our upcoming Q4 Global Economic Outlook. She tells David Wilder why “higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness and also explains why monetary tightening hasn’t had the direct and immediate impact that had been expected. Jenny also previews our upcoming work on neutral interest rates. Plus, in an exclusive clip from our recen...

From hope to reality to hype and hysteria. The rapid development and adoption of generative artificial intelligence may be keeping headline writers busy, but is there anything to their warnings about the technology’s roll-out leading to mass unemployment?  In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing, Senior Economic Advisor Vicky Redwood and Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory discuss AI’s p...

The potential of artificial intelligence to reshape the global economy is more than just the breathless hype of headline writers. Paul Ashworth , our Chief North America Economist, explains why AI’s impact should be thought of in terms of previous technological developments such as railways and the desktop computer and how they transformed economies in their time.     Ahead of the 26th September l...

We think the Fed and ECB have ended their tightening cycles, and that the Bank of England's will be over by the end of this week. With hikes over, attention invariably turns to when rates could be cut. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why investors hoping for clues on timing from central bankers are going to be disappointed.   He also tells David Wilder why the Bank of Japan may seize...

For consumers, it’s the camera lenses on the outside that may draw them to Huawei's Mate 60 Pro. For those tracking shifts in the global macro narrative, it’s the chip inside the sanctioned Chinese firm’s newest flagship phone that’s most interesting. In the latest episode of the Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what one of the Mate 60’s key components means in the con...

As summer holidays draw to a close attention is quickly turning to September’s big central bank decisions. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and the team have been sifting through weeks of data from the US, euro-zone and UK to assess what the Fed, ECB and Bank of England are going to do when they sit down to decide their next moves on rates. He tells David Wilder what to expect from these meetin...

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing walks through the summer’s big market themes to discuss the growth outlook, the China slowdown scares and whether the hype around AI is justified. Along the way, he gives his take on the latest PMI readings, explains the problem with China stimulus hopes and previews our forthcoming work on the impact of artificial intelligence on the global economy and markets....

 Government bond yields have been hitting multi-year highs even though data show inflation in retreat and central bankers are preparing to down tools – if they haven’t already. Why the disconnect? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about what’s been happening in the bond market, whether this is why some EMs have been struggling, and what Jerome Powell might say at Jackson Ho...

While China’s latest price reports have markets worrying about deflation, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing thinks the real issue is what’s happening in core inflation against a backdrop of a struggling economy. He also reviews the “immaculate” July CPI report from the US and what means for the Fed and previews the UK CPI report for July due this coming Wednesday.  Plus, Caroline Bain , our Chie...

Economies aren’t doing what Economics 101 says they should be doing, with disinflationary evidence piling up, even as labour markets remain in relatively good shape. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about the sell-off in the bond market, potential paths to a soft landing, and the key messages from the July non-farm payrolls report. He also explains what an announcement fro...

It was one of those turning points in the global economy which deserved more attention: Chinese passenger car exports exceeded Japan’s this past May, powered by the country’s rapidly-expanding electric vehicle sector.  It’s a marker of China’s increasing dominance in this emerging industry, and another sign of Japan’s struggles to make more headway, despite its early forays into alternative fuel v...

The euro-zone may be mired in recession, but that won’t stop the ECB from raising rates again this coming week in order to get inflation – a “greedy beast”, according to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel – under control.  Deputy Chief Eurozone Economist Jack Allen-Reynolds tells David Wilder why another 25 basis point hikes is a done deal for this Thursday, but also why the ECB could take rates u...

Markets cheered the US June inflation report, with equities rising and yields falling on solid evidence that the forces that drove core inflation to a four-decade high are in retreat. But is the crisis really over? How will the Fed respond in July and subsequent meetings? And what does the US experience say about the UK and European outlooks? In this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capi...

We've just published our Q3 Outlook reports for the global economy and markets. They tell a fairly grim near-term story of inflation, recession and weaker equities prices. But there's nuance within that narrative, including emerging markets outperformance and a much, much brighter outlook for stocks beyond 2023.  Ariane Curtis and Tom Mathews speak to David Wilder about the key takeaways from thei...

Accusations of ‘greedflation’ are flying thick and fast, fuelling public anger over rising prices, putting executives on the defensive and pressuring politicians to do something. But are companies really taking advantage of inflation’s return to maximise profits? Simon MacAdam, a Senior Economist on our Global Economics team, has just completed in-depth analysis into the ‘greedflation’ question an...

After that shock CPI report and the Bank of England’s aggressive response, Neil Shearing discusses whether the UK is a high inflation-slow growth outlier. Along with his survey of the latest advanced economy data, the Capital Economics Group Chief Economist also talks about what EM central banks have been doing right.  And he explains why, despite signs of improvement, fundamental strains in US-Ch...

In this special episode of the Capital Economics Weekly Briefing, our team of property economists explain how commercial and housing markets are faring in a world of rapid and large increases in interest rates.  Taking in everything from the crisis in the US banking system to panic around UK inflation, the team discuss what’s been happening on both sides of the Atlantic and where they think market...

China data for May fell short of expectations and Capital Economics clients want to know what the government’s going to do about it. Our China Drop-In was one of two online briefings we held for them last week, along with our post-Fed, post-ECB, pre-Bank of England briefing. In this special episode, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles some of the most commonly-asked questions during those...

These are not normal economic times and that makes the job of policymakers – and economists – that much harder. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about why this cycle is unlike any other, but also why it's likely to end in recession.  Plus, the headline were all about LIV Golf, the PGA Tour and Karim Benzema, but the other big Saudi Arabia story this week was the oil produc...

US stocks ended the week with a broad rally in the wake of the May jobs report, but the S&P 500’s performance this year has been mostly dictated by the outsized strength of just a handful of giant tech firms. Oliver Allen and Adam Hoyes from our Financial Markets team talk to David Wilder about what’s really been happening under the hood of the US stock market, how this has played before and w...

Neil Shearing says the UK’s April CPI report was a “horrorshow”. The Capital Economics Group Chief Economist tells David Wilder why sticky inflation readings make recession more likely – despite the popular view that a downturn can be avoided – while previewing May inflation data for the euro-zone and the US non-farm payrolls report. Plus, the reports suggest a deal is near, but what if Democrats...

The cover story of The Economist magazine this past week has been largely based on our long-held view that China’s economic growth would slow to just 2% by the end of this decade, and wouldn’t surpass the US as the world’s biggest economy.  The Capital Economics report outlining this view was first published five years ago this month, and Mark Williams, one of its co-authors, tells David Wilder wh...

The sick man of Europe. Broken Britain. Stagflation nation. The UK has had an unenviable post-pandemic economic recovery, lagging other advanced economies on growth but ahead of the pack when it comes to inflation. But how much of what ails the UK economy is cyclical? Are fundamental changes needed to put the economy on a surer footing and, if so, is there the political will to deliver them? In th...

The White House and congressional leaders are still working to try to reach agreement on raising the debt ceiling, but there’s no guarantee that a deal will get done in time. Deputy Chief US Economist Andrew Hunter and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann speak to David Wilder about this latest flare-up over the debt ceiling, including the potential for default, why minting a trillion d...