The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

It's far too soon to be worrying about another spike in inflation from renewed fighting in the Middle East. That's one of the key messages from Capital Economics' Global Chief Economist Jennifer McKeown, who joins David Wilder on The Weekly Briefing with Neil Shearing away this week. Jenny explains what could drive the Fed to raise interest rates as early as September, whether economies on both si...

For the past three years, our Markets team has been more optimistic than most about the AI-driven rally in global equities. That view has been borne out by events. Now they believe the rally has entered its final phase and that a sharp downturn will follow.  On this week's The Weekly Briefing , Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann explains why we think the correction is coming in 2027, what to...

Our flagship Global Economic Outlook is just around the corner, and in this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing , Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews our view of a world in which some economies are benefiting from the AI investment boom while others are falling behind. He also discusses what to expect from next week’s US employment report and why markets are underestimating just how haw...

A peace deal that's already showing signs of strain. Central bankers still wrestling with inflation. A new Fed chair seeking reform. And a UK local election with implications for the bond market. It’s been a busy week for macro and markets, and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to make sense of it all. Neil explains what the increasingly fragile US-Iran peace deal means for gl...

Relatively strong US growth, sticky inflation and a resilient labour market have strengthened the case for further Fed tightening. In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing , Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown tells David Wilder why rates may rise again before year-end and what to expect from Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair. Before that, it's Groundhog Friday, as Donald Trump...

Are we moving towards Fed rate hikes? Even before the release of a strong May US employment report, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joined The Weekly Briefing to explain why shifting dynamics on the FOMC mean the Federal Reserve could emerge from the summer weighing the need for tighter policy to contain inflation. Plus, after another extraordinary surge in AI stocks, Chief Economic Adviser fo...

This could prove another false dawn, or the US and Iran could finally reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas shipments. But even if the strait reopens, energy flows, oil prices and, by extension, inflation won’t snap back quickly to pre-war levels. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley join the latest episode of The...

This latest wobble in the bond market almost certainly won’t be the last. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join David Wilder on the latest episode of the Weekly Briefing to discuss the forces that have driven bond yields to multi-year highs.  They examine shifting perceptions around inflation as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drags on, the fisca...

Westminster is gripped by the game of thrones around Labour's slow-mo leadership drama, which could deliver the UK's seventh prime minister in ten years. But for markets and the economy, the stakes are very real. Chief UK Economist Paul Dales tells David Wilder why.  He says all the leading contenders to replace Starmer would, to varying degrees, open the spending taps but also explains why the bo...

Donald Trump travels to Beijing next week for a long-awaited summit with Xi Jinping that carries huge geopolitical significance, but one where investors should keep expectations firmly in check. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard join David Wilder to assess the state of the US-China relationship and why any apparent thaw in tensions may prove sup...

A day after Brent crude surged above $120 per barrel, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Emerging Markets Economist Jason Tuvey discuss how long the conflict in the Middle East could continue and why Iran’s collapsing economy is not a reliable guide to when the regime might capitulate. Speaking with David Wilder, they also explore how central bankers are navigating the inflation...

The Iran conflict is approaching its third month, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and oil is back above $100 per barrel. How safe is the assumption that this will all be resolved soon, and what happens to commodity prices, growth and inflation if it isn’t? In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing , Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David...

Global imbalances are back. But how serious is the threat this time, and could they trigger the next phase of global economic instability? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack what is driving balance of payments positions to worrying extremes, why a more fragmented and volatile world raises the stakes, and why Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are unlikely to take meaningful...

The latest Weekly Briefing covers the global outlook, financial markets and energy. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the ceasefire in the Middle East means for growth and inflation, how quickly the world economy could recover if it holds, and what happens if fighting resumes. James Reilly, a Senior Economist on our Markets team, joins to run through updated forecasts for equities...

The AI hype cycle shows no sign of slowing. But how much are the hundreds of billions in investment actually boosting economies, and when will that spending translate into meaningful productivity gains? In this episode, Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood discusses her new report, ' How deeply is AI taking hold in the economy?' , the latest addition to Capital Economics’ analysis of AI’s global...

Our updated macro and market forecasts assess the impact on growth and inflation – and the likely central bank response – under both baseline and adverse scenarios for the Middle East conflict. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses why the more benign scenario would deliver a negative but manageable shock to the global ec...

Pity the poor central banker. As energy prices surge, they are grappling with the trade-off between growth and inflation, while trying to communicate this all to markets without triggering an unwanted tightening in financial conditions. At the end of an unusually busy week for policy meetings, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown assess how central banks...

News of a record release of emergency oil reserves has quickly been overshadowed by images of tankers on fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Thirteen days into the conflict, tensions in the Middle East appear to be escalating rather than easing. What is the view from commodity and financial markets, and what could this mean for the global economy? Capital Economics has modelled three scenarios to assess...

Conflict in the Middle East, a surge in oil and gas prices, and a surprise drop in US payrolls – it’s been a turbulent week for the global economy. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Capital Economics Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss what the spreading Middle East conflict and sharp spike in energy prices mean for global growth and inflation, and why the...

Amid widening conflict in the Middle East, our economist team held an online briefing first thing Monday to tackle some of the key questions that clients have been asking. In this edited clip from that briefing, you’ll hear the team tackle issues, including: The extent of disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the implications for oil and gas prices; The point at which rising oil p...

Is China’s latest Five-Year Plan about to reset its economic model and tackle the imbalances weighing on both the domestic and global economy? Speculation always builds ahead of a new Five-Year Plan. But this time, the stakes feel higher. With growth slowing, debt risks lingering and external tensions elevated, could this Plan mark a genuine turning point? That is what Julian Evans-Pritchard will...

The Supreme Court has finally ruled on Donald Trump's tariffs with an opinion that the president has no right to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. So what happens now? Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss the implications of this legal rul...

From the lows of December retail sales to the highs of January payrolls, recent US data has sent mixed signals. But the economy remains in relatively good shape, argues Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown on the latest episode of the Capital Economics Weekly Briefing. He explores why the idea of a “K-shaped” economy may be overstated, what markets are missing about the productivity...

In this week’s episode, Neil Shearing talks to Vicky Redwood and John Higgins about a tumultuous week in equity markets, how AI is creating winners and losers, and whether there’s any evidence that AI is starting to lift productivity growth in economies. AI already making a big contribution to productivity growth China’s AI rollout could rival the US

This weekend’s Japanese election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in years. As Sanae Takaichi, newly installed leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, seeks to cement her mandate, government bond yields and the yen have been moving in opposite directions amid headlines warning of plans to open the fiscal floodgates. But are markets really responding to fears of runaway spen...